How Iran-Israel War Will Affect Nigeria’s Economy, Socio-Political Terrain

The outbreak of war between Israel and Iran is already sending shockwaves across the world, as experts say it portends a combination of risks and upsides for countries, including the Nigerian economy, amidst the challenges of an already floundering global economy.

The Israel-Iran war, which began on June 13, 2025, is impacting the global economy primarily through heightened geopolitical uncertainty, rising energy prices, and disruptions to trade and supply chains.

With the Middle East supplying about 34 per cent of global oil and 18 per cent of natural gas, the escalation of the conflict has caused Brent crude oil prices to spike by around 10 per cent, and natural gas prices rose about seven per cent, driven by fears of supply disruptions, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit chokepoint.

Also, supply chain and shipping costs have increased due to higher insurance premiums and rerouting of ships around the Middle East, squeezing profit margins and potentially slowing global trade and manufacturing.

Israel-Iran War: A Double-Edged Sword For Nigeria

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Speaking on the impact of the conflict on Nigeria, an expert in economics and international affairs and adjunct professor at the University of Ibadan, Professor Tayo Bello, warned that the conflict will hit Nigeria with both opportunities and serious challenges.

He said that while Nigeria, as Africa’s largest oil producer, stands to benefit from increased oil earnings in the short term, this may come with a heavy cost for Nigerians at home.

“The war is like a double-edged sword for Nigeria,” Professor Bello said. “On one hand, the global price of crude oil is expected to rise sharply. This means more revenue for the country, especially if prices climb from the current $75 per barrel to $90 or higher.

“Higher oil prices mean higher fuel prices locally,” he explained. “Diesel, petrol, and other essentials will become more expensive, pushing inflation upward.

This will affect everyday Nigerians and businesses alike.”