Yobe’s 2023 election upset was not a rejection of the APC it was a cry for inclusion. The road to reclaiming the state runs through Yobe South. A Political Wake-Up Call
In the 2023 general elections, Yobe State, long regarded as an All Progressives Congress (APC) fortress, delivered one of the biggest political surprises of the season. Despite decades of loyalty to the ruling party, the state slipped from APC’s grip, with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the PDP polling 198,567 votes against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 151,459.
With 1.48 million registered voters, Yobe remains a politically strategic battleground in the North East. To reclaim it in 2027, President Tinubu must read the political temperature accurately and act decisively particularly by addressing the long standing marginalization of Yobe South, the state’s most populous yet most neglected zone.
Roots of Discontent- The APC’s decline in Yobe can be traced to the persistent exclusion of Yobe South Senatorial Zone from power and recognition. Despite representing more than half of the state’s population, Yobe South currently has no federal appointee, while Yobe East enjoys 15 and Yobe North 11.
This imbalance has bred frustration among loyal party members and weakened grassroots enthusiasm.
Historically, Yobe South was a PDP stronghold, producing key legislators under the influence of political heavyweights like the late Adamu Chiroma and Adamu Maina Waziri. The tide turned in 2019, when Senator Ibrahim Mohammed Bomai, through philanthropy and political inclusiveness, galvanized mass defections to the APC helping the party sweep all elective positions for the first time in Yobe’s history.
Yet, the absence of corresponding federal recognition has since eroded that goodwill.
The Yobe Power Triangle: Since 1999, Yobe East has held the governorship continuously from Bukar Abba Ibrahim’s eight years, through Ibrahim Gaidam’s ten, to Mai Mala Buni’s ongoing administration. Nearly a quarter of a century of control by one zone has created what many now describe as “The Yobe Power Triangle” a tight knit political network dominating the governorship, a ministerial seat, and a Senate position.
Speculation is growing that this triangle intends to retain power in 2027 by fielding Senator Musa Mustapha as governor while Governor Buni moves to the Senate. If this plan proceeds, the APC risks deepening perceptions of rotational injustice, inviting backlash from voters eager for balance and fairness.
An Opening for the Opposition: Both the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) are capitalizing on this discontent. The ADC, whose founding father Adamu Maina Waziri hails from Yobe South, is reportedly mobilizing aggressively across the region.
A potential PDP, ADC coalition, backed by Yobe South’s decisive voting population, could reshape the state’s political map unless the APC rebalances power and renews confidence among the South’s electorate.
The numbers are telling. With over 50% of registered voters concentrated in Yobe South, any party that wins the zone convincingly stands a strong chance of carrying the entire state. Ignoring this demographic and political reality would amount to political self sabotage for the APC ahead of 2027.
Charting the Path to Recovery: To regain Yobe’s loyalty, President Tinubu must lead a strategic, inclusive, and reward based political recalibration built on fairness and tangible impact. The solution is neither complicated nor abstract; it simply requires political courage, sincerity, and a willingness to correct past imbalances.
- Recognize and Empower Yobe South: Reconciliation begins with inclusion. Appointing competent sons and daughters of Yobe South into strategic federal positions would signal fairness and rebuild trust. In politics, symbolism translates into loyalty, and visible representation will rejuvenate the APC’s grassroots machinery.
A few strategic appointments whether in key ministries, boards, or agencies can go a long way in restoring faith and unity within the party’s base.
- Zone the 2027 Governorship to Yobe South: Equity demands that the 2027 governorship ticket go to Yobe South. After twenty four years of leadership from Yobe East, rotating the seat would not only demonstrate fairness but also reinvigorate the party’s structure across the entire state.
A unifying figure like Senator Ibrahim Mohammed Bomai, with his proven record of community service and philanthropy, offers the best bridge between the party and the people. His achievements over 100 Jumu’ah mosques built, hundreds of scholarships for both local and foreign students, and massive investments in healthcare and education speak to a leader who has touched lives beyond politics.
His candidacy would instantly energize the electorate, draw support from across party lines, and counter the perception of exclusion that has fueled disillusionment.
- Anchor Renewed Hope Projects in the Zone: The Renewed Hope Agenda, President Tinubu’s national vision, should have a visible footprint in Yobe South. Development projects in Potiskum, Fika, Nangere, and Fune LGAs—covering housing, youth empowerment, agriculture, and small-business development will translate promises into progress.
Yobe South’s economy, driven by agriculture, trade, and livestock, holds enormous potential. Investing visibly in these sectors would not only deliver results but also provide a strong campaign narrative for 2027: that Renewed Hope is working, and Yobe South is part of the story.
Balancing Loyalty with Justice: Beyond political arithmetic, this is a question of moral equity. Yobe South has demonstrated loyalty and commitment to the APC, particularly since 2019. Yet, the zone remains the least rewarded.
Politics, at its core, thrives on reciprocity. If loyalty is not rewarded, enthusiasm wanes. By acknowledging the contributions and sacrifices of Yobe South, President Tinubu will not only heal old wounds but also solidify APC’s unity ahead of the elections.
The President has often emphasized equity, fairness, and inclusion as the pillars of his Renewed Hope Agenda. Applying these principles to Yobe’s political dynamics would strengthen both his national image and his northern support base.
A Warning, Not a Verdict: Yobe State is not lost; it is merely waiting to be heard. The 2023 setback was a warning, not a verdict. It offered an opportunity for reflection, renewal, and recalibration.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu can reclaim Yobe in 2027 but only by balancing loyalty with justice, power with inclusion, and representation with fairness.
The path to victory runs unmistakably through Yobe South: Recognize it. Empower it. Entrust it with leadership and the Renewed Hope will shine once again across the sands of Yobe.
– Muhammad writes from Abuja
