The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s inflation may rise to 37 per cent by next year if the global uncertainties continue to remain even as it revised downward the growth projections for the country.
The latest World Economic Outlook released by the IMF on Tuesday showed that growth for the country is expected to moderate for this year and next as it also expects global growth to also slow down due to the rising uncertainties prompted by Trumps Tariffs.
It revised downward Nigeria’s economic growth projections for 2025 and 2026, to 3.0 for 2025 and 2.7 for 2026 as global uncertainties grow and sustained weaknesses in oil prices impact the county’s economy.
Global growth projections had been revised downward to 2.8 per cent for this year and 3.0 for next year a .05 and 0.3 difference from its projections in January as it said major policy shifts are resetting the global trade system and giving rise to uncertainty that is once again testing the resilience of the global economy.
Speaking at the WEO press briefing during the ongoing IMF/World Bank 2025 Spring Meetings in Washington DC, IMF Economic Counsellor and Director Research Department, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that emerging economies including Nigeria had been downgraded because they are “very plugged into the global supply chains. The uncertainty is leading to a positive investment in activity, and they’re going to suffer from the decline in demand for products coming from the tariffs.
“For sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to decline slightly from 4 percent in 2024 to 3.8 percent in 2025 and recover modestly in 2026, lifting to 4.2 percent. Among the larger economies, the growth forecast in Nigeria is revised downward by 0.2 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, owing to lower oil prices, and that in South Africa is revised downward by 0.5 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, reflecting slowing momentum from a weaker-than-expected 2024 outturn, deteriorating sentiment due to heightened uncertainty, the intensification of protectionist policies, and a deeper slowdown in major economies.
