IMF Ranks Nigeria Among Top 5 AI Economies

Nigeria has been identified as one of the five Sub Saharan African economies with the highest potential productivity gains from artificial intelligence (AI), according to a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) report, underscoring the country’s growing capacity to harness emerging technologies to drive economic growth.

The IMF, in its latest report titled “Unlocking the Potential: AI in Sub-Saharan Africa”, listed Nigeria alongside South Africa, Mauritius, Botswana and Namibia as the region’s top five economies expected to record the strongest AI driven productivity gains under its baseline projections.

The report said Nigeria’s position reflects its employment structure, with a relatively larger share of workers engaged in sectors such as finance, information and communication technology and professional services, where artificial intelligence is expected to deliver greater productivity improvements than in predominantly manual occupations.

While highlighting the country’s prospects, the Fund cautioned that the wider Sub-Saharan African region still faces significant structural barriers that could limit AI adoption if not urgently addressed.

According to the report, “Artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a general-purpose technology with the potential to reshape productivity, labor markets, and growth trajectories worldwide. For Sub-Saharan Africa, the central concern is not the risk of technological disruption, but whether countries will be able to adopt, adapt, and scale AI quickly enough to capture its benefits and avoid falling further behind.”

The IMF noted that although AI adoption across the region remains relatively low, countries that improve digital infrastructure, electricity supply, technical skills and governance could unlock substantial economic gains.

It stated that, “Depending on policy choices and AI’s ultimate economic effect, AI adoption in Sub-Saharan Africa could increase productivity between 0.2 percent and 2.1 percent over the next decade, potentially adding up to nearly half percentage point to annual GDP growth over the same time period.”

The Fund explained that Nigeria stands out because its labour market composition more closely resembles those of emerging market economies than many countries in the region, making it better positioned to benefit from AI adoption.

However, it stressed that the region’s current AI gains remain constrained by weak infrastructure and low adoption rates. According to the report, “These estimates should be interpreted as a current-conditions diagnostic rather than a forecast of AI’s technological potential.

“They reflect today’s low adoption, infrastructure gaps, and sectoral structure; they do not capture the full range of gains that could arise from faster diffusion, structural transformation, public sector applications, or AI-enabled innovation.”

The IMF also warned that failure to address existing constraints could widen the development gap between Africa and more advanced economies. “The region’s AI trajectory is not predetermined: Policy choices will shape whether AI supports convergence or deepens divergence.”

Despite the challenges, the Fund said there are encouraging signs that the region is already embracing the technology, citing expanding AI applications in agriculture, financial technology, healthcare, education and public service delivery.

“AI presents a narrow but meaningful window of opportunity for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to accelerate growth and improve living standards. The region does not need to be at the technological frontier to benefit, but it must be able to adopt, adapt, and scale AI rapidly and inclusively.” The report read.