The assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump on July 13 at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania has sucked the oxygen from the debate on President Joe Biden’s fitness for a second term. The discussion will resurface, but Democrats should forget it. The party is stuck with Biden.
The odds are daunting. It must feel like a difficult marriage heading for a shipwreck. However, with only four months to the election, facing the odds is the only way to overcome them. Expectedly, Biden doubled down on his decision to run after the presidential debate with Trump left the president looking like the victim of a car crash.
He has tried to redeem himself several times and has snagged on his speeches every time. Yet, despite his frail health, stumbling speeches, and the mocking caricatures in the media, Biden insists he would stay in the race.
“I know I’m not a young man,” Biden said after the debate with Trump. “I don’t walk as easy as I used to. I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to. I don’t debate as well as I used to, but I know what I do know — I know how to tell the truth!”
Stuck On Him
As doubts about his fitness persist, one truth that he weighs is whether it’s in his party’s best interest to run. With a heavy heart, it’s fair to say that the answer is yes. Democrats are stuck with Biden. However worrying the prospects of a defeat – particularly a defeat to Trump – might seem, Biden’s candidacy still gives the party the best chance to win or rebuild.
Some think Biden should let Vice President Kamala Harris run. She has received support from members of Congress, especially from her state of California, women organisations, progressive activists, and sections of the Asian American community.
Her supporters have given reasons, from her relatively younger age to the likelihood that, given her background as a prosecutor and Attorney General, she would pay more attention to issues like criminal justice reform, immigration and healthcare. Others have added that her ethnic nationality would bring diversity to the ticket and energise Latinos, Asians and Blacks, who are increasingly important demographics among voters.
Others, like Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Michigan governors, have also been mentioned as possible Biden replacements, but none would appear as viable as Harris. Yet, for all the promises she offers, there are many reasons Biden, instead of Harris, remains the Democrats’ best card.
Remember Hilary?
Hilary Clinton, former First Lady and Secretary of State, apart from being a senator, a white woman and one of the best-kept secrets of the deep state, could not defeat Trump in 2016 because America was not ready. It was unprepared to discard the bogey of an “evil” Clinton dynasty. It was – and still is – unprepared for a female president.
Sure, more women are serving in the US Congress today, and voters’ attitudes toward having a female president have slightly improved. But not so fast when a woman of colour is on the ballot.
We never know what might have happened if Hilary challenged Trump again in 2020. But she declined not only because the previous contest had left her with deep emotional scars but because the Democratic party had also come to the inevitable conclusion that in what was supposed to be a post-modern society, gender – and the elephant in the room, race – remained a big issue.
It’s unlikely that Harris would succeed where Clinton failed, a hint that may also be responsible for Michelle Obama staying out of the race despite her popularity in the opinion polls.
Harris’ Bonafide
Harris’ slim chance against Trump has little to do with her credentials. She was a former Attorney General and senator from California who formed a bipartisan coalition to enact a $1 trillion investment in infrastructure to remove every lead pipe in the US. She has also been on the frontline to reform the healthcare system, especially among the vulnerable, and reduce gun violence, among other things.
On a typical day, Harris is an asset to the Democratic party and might still be for some time. But this November election is an unusual one. America is deeply divided, and trust in politics is so severely broken that a Wall Street Journal poll indicated that even though this is the first presidential rematch in five decades, nearly 10 per cent of voters are still undecided.
That shouldn’t be because voters have records to judge the contestants: Trump, the demagogue, cut taxes for the middle class and massively removed regulations, among other things; Biden, on the other hand, has recorded two crucial years of job growth in a long time and managed to keep the economy steady, despite the supply chain disruptions of COVID-19. Inflation has taken a significant toll on families but could have been worse.
The jury is out on voters’ feelings, especially where it matters most: their pockets. Although the demographics of the undecided population – less educated, less wealthy, less politically aware and engaged, less interested in politics, but definitely more diverse – should favour Harris, the “silent voters” or “hidden Trump voters” who blindsided pollsters and torpedoed Clinton eight years ago are still alive and well.
Teflon Trump thrives in scandals. Today’s Feeble Joe is not the same Biden who faced Trump four years ago and got away by the skin of his teeth. While he is weaker, frailer and poorer even at sharing his accomplishments in the last four years, his opponent, Trump, has been emboldened by his worst excesses. The race for the US presidency is a match-up between horror and uncertainty.
Strength In Weakness
Yet, Biden’s weaknesses, especially his common touch – not Harris’ strengths – are the Democrats’ most potent weapon against a candidate who would lie, cheat, inflate, incite and routinely invent stories to get by. It’s a hard thing to say, but Biden, with all his frailties, is the medicine for Trump’s demagoguery.
Biden stepping down at this time will further weaken and divide the Democrats, giving them very little time to rally before the election. And if the worst, a Trump victory happens – which I think is improbable – then the party would have the chance to rebuild from its potentially less fragmented ruins.
What’s in it for Africa? Heads or tails, not a lot. Trump made clear that it was America first and last and the rest of the world, especially Africa, was shithole. Some still romanticise the Biden Senate years, when he spoke against apartheid, railed against injustice in the Middle East and pursued global peace through multilateralism.
A New Biden
That was then. The Biden of the last four years has massively funded Ukraine’s senseless war with Russia, a meat grinder if ever there was one, and paid scant attention to Africa. He has also proved utterly ineffective in getting Benjamin Netanyahu to stop the killings in Gaza.
The election in November is not about Africa. It’s about whether an exceptional country that lost its way in 2016 – with horrific consequences for the rest of the world – is determined to lose it yet again.
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