Independent Media and Policy Initiative Sees 5.5% GDP Growth For Nigeria

The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI), one of Nigeria’s notable policy groups, has endorsed the economic model of the President Bola Tinubu administration, projecting it will drive GDP to 5.5 per cent in 2026—higher than forecasts from the World Bank and IMF.

In a policy document signed by its chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI highlighted a shift from oil dependency to policy-driven growth, using regulations and frameworks to cut red tape, boost trade, and attract investment for inclusive expansion.

It said: “We made it clear in that statement that the Nigerian economy under the current administration had engendered a paradigm shift from perennial dependency on crude oil earnings to policy-driven economic facilitation.

“This refers to the deliberate use of governmental policies, regulations, and institutional frameworks to reduce obstacles, lower costs, and speed up economic activities, particularly in trade and investment.

“The facilitation, in this context, aims to foster sustainable, inclusive growth by improving efficiency and reducing red tape.

“Seven months after that questionable projection by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we have seen a volte-face. In an epiphany-like realisation, the IMF now speaks of a resurgent Nigerian economy, as reflected in the global multilateral institution’s revised Nigerian economic outlook, which projects 4.4 per cent economic growth for 2026.

“This is the highest GDP growth projection by IMF over the last 17 years, a real expression of confidence in the Nigerian economy.”

The think tank also referenced the general consensus on Nigeria’s growth prospects which it attributed to the economic model adopted by the President Bola Tinubu administration.

“Beyond the IMF’s new GDP projection, we have observed a consensus around a higher than  four per cent economic growth performance expectation of the Nigerian economy by virtually all known individual and public economic commentators.

“While the Nigerian Government projected 4.68 per cent growth in 2026, the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) projected a massive seven per cent, 1.5 per cent higher than the Nigeria Economic Summit Group’s 5.5 per cent for the year.

“PwC sustained the conservative threshold by projecting a 4.3 per cent growth conditioned on higher oil price while the World Bank also revised its earlier 3.7 per cent projection to 4.4 per cent.

“The agglomeration of these positive economic growth outlooks by domestic and global institutional players points to an emerging economic paradigm that emphasises increased production and productivity momentum, foreign exchange stability, disinflation, galvanised foreign direct investment and inflow, and an unobtrusive regulatory environment, anchored in policy-driven economic facilitation,” it added.