Is there any morality in Nigerian politics? Are the recent defections and political realignments driven by principle, or are they simply the latest acts in a massive spectacle of self-preservation? Do our politicians who constantly switch parties truly believe in any ideology, or are they merely survivalists in an ever-hostile political jungle? As Nasiru El-Rufai and his co-travellers make their dramatic shift to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), and as rumours swirl about even more defections from APC, PDP, LP, and NNPP, one must ask: Is there any real difference between these political parties? Or is it all just a rebranded cycle of power-hungry ambition?
In The Laws of Human Nature, Robert Greene explains that human beings are fundamentally driven by self-interest, the need for control, and the unrelenting pursuit of power. In Nigeria’s political arena, this law is in full effect. Politicians do not move because they are suddenly dissatisfied with their former party’s policies and programs or because they have had a profound awakening about governance. They move because, like chess players, they anticipate their next move and position themselves to ensure that they do not become irrelevant when the power shifts.
Sun Tzu, in The Art of War, cautions: “When the enemy is in superior strength, evade him.” This principle is not lost on Nigerian politicians. Many of those defecting today were once loyalists of the ruling APC or the PDP. But loyalty is expendable in politics. The perception that APC or PDP is losing its grip on power makes some politicians nervous, and rather than go down with a sinking ship, they seek new lifeboats. Is this pragmatism, or is it betrayal? Is it strategy, or is it cowardice?
Political Realignments: Who Wins, Who Loses?
Who really benefits from these defections? The people or the politicians? If a politician moves from the APC, PDP or LP to the SDP, does this translate into better governance? Will SDP their new bride suddenly become the beacon of progressive politics, or is it merely another platform that will soon be riddled with the same old issues of incompetence, corruption, and elite bargaining?
Greg Power, in Inside the Political Mind: The Human Side of Politics and How It Shapes Development, argues that political institutions are not just structures – they are shaped by the individuals within them. If the same politicians who ran their past parties into the ground are now the ones defecting to new platforms, what guarantees that these platforms will not suffer the same fate?
Robert Greene’s The Laws of Human Nature teaches us that people rarely change at their core. A politician who spent years making self-serving decisions in APC or PDP does not become a saint simply by switching to SDP. Is this not just the same game, played with different jerseys? Why should Nigerians expect anything different?
The Power Struggle Ahead of 2027
Why is this happening now? Why are these defections happening a full three years before the next general election? Is it truly about governance, or is it about positioning? In Game of Thrones, the Iron Throne is the ultimate prize. In Nigeria, that throne is the presidency, and the battle for it starts long before election season. Political players are already making their moves, forming new alliances, and laying the groundwork for 2027. But in this political battlefield, do the people matter at all?
Sun Tzu warns: “Opportunities multiply as they are seized.” Those moving to SDP today are not just seeking refuge; they are seeking opportunities. Are they seeking opportunities to serve the Nigerian people, or opportunities to remain politically relevant and secure personal power? When the PDP, and now the APC was in its prime, these same individuals declared it to be the best thing to happen to Nigeria. Now, they are finding new narratives. So, were they lying then, or are they lying now?
The Cycle of Betrayal and the People’s Role
Why do Nigerians tolerate this endless cycle of betrayal? Why is there no real accountability? Why do politicians feel free to switch parties without fear of losing public trust? Robert Greene explains that people are easily manipulated by appearances and emotions. Politicians exploit this weakness, staging dramatic exits and rebranding themselves as reformers, when in reality, they are simply making calculated moves to stay in the game.
Greg Power, in Inside the Political Mind, notes that voters have the potential to hold politicians accountable, but only when they refuse to be deceived by these political manoeuvres. So, will 2027 be any different? Will Nigerians finally demand leaders who are truly different, or will they once again be distracted by carefully orchestrated political theatre?
The Illusion of Change
Is SDP truly a fresh alternative, or just another waiting room for politicians who will eventually move again when it suits them? Will it stand as a genuine opposition, or will it merge with another party before the next elections? If defections were truly about principle, why don’t these politicians step aside and allow fresh, credible leaders to emerge? Why do the same faces continue to dominate every so-called “new movement”?
Sun Tzu advises: “The wise warrior avoids the battle.” Nigerian politicians know this well. They avoid direct confrontation with their failures and instead distract the public with political drama. But should Nigerians continue falling for this game? Should they continue voting for leaders who keep recycling themselves through different parties?
Robert Greene explains that those who understand human nature can either manipulate it or rise above it. Nigerian voters have a choice: They can continue to be pawns in this grand political chess game, or they can break the cycle. Will they demand better? Or will they once again settle for the illusion of change?
A Nation at a Crossroads
As 2027 approaches, will more political figures jump ship? Will APC or PDP recover, or will another mass exodus occur? Will SDP survive as a major player, or is it simply a temporary shelter? More importantly, will the people continue to be passive spectators, or will they finally hold these politicians accountable?
In Game of Thrones, the smallfolk only matter when they rise up and disrupt the balance of power. In Nigeria, the electorate has that same power, but will they use it? Sun Tzu warns that complacency leads to defeat. Are Nigerians being too complacent with their politicians? Will the same cycle repeat itself in 2027, or will there be a true political awakening?
Perhaps the time has come for voters to look beyond the manufactured drama of defections and power struggles. If true change is to come, it must start with a fundamental shift in how Nigerians engage with politics. It must start with a demand for accountability, a rejection of empty promises, and a refusal to be played like pawns in an endless game of political survival.
The answer, as always, lies in the hands of the people. But history suggests that the game will continue, the players will keep moving, and power will remain in the hands of those who understand that, in politics, survival is the only true ideology. The question remains: Will Nigerians keep buying the same old tricks, or will they finally change the game?
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