Lessons From The FCT Elections

Last weekend, the Federal Capital Territory area council elections were held, and for the first time in recent memory, all eyes were on what is usually a low-key affair. The reasons are not far-fetched. The opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC) sought to prove that the groundswell of discontent against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) had translated into real electoral muscle.

The stakes were high enough that former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar showed up in Abuja to campaign for the ADC candidate for Abuja Municipal Area Council, Dr. Moses Paul.

It was not to be. The ADC performed woefully in the elections. And to rub salt in the wound, the Peoples Democratic Party a party that has been in a political coma for months now managed to win the Gwagwalada area council seat. When a party that can barely hold a press conference without internal drama is outperforming you, it’s time for serious soul-searching.

And as usual in Nigerian politics, the opposition is crying foul. The election was massively rigged, they say. The results were manipulated, they claim. I have heard this song so many times that I can sing it in my sleep.

Two weeks ago on this page, I warned that the electronic transmission of election results is not the silver bullet that will cure all our electoral ills. I even said our politicians are always one step ahead of the system, and that vote buying would be the order of the day. The FCT elections proved me right. Results were electronically transmitted, and yet the ADC candidate is screaming blue murder that he was rigged out. This is what I have been saying, it’s in our DNA.

Even if we import voting machines from Mars and have angels as electoral officials, the losers will still cry rigging. In the eyes of our politicians, the only credible election result is the one they win. If they lose, it’s either that they were rigged out or that democracy is in danger. That’s how we roll in this country.

Let me be clear. Am I saying elections are never rigged in Nigeria? Of course not. Rigging has been part of our political culture since the First Republic. But the blanket dismissal of every unfavourable result as rigged has become a convenient excuse for politicians who failed to do the hard work of building grassroots support.

When you lose an election, the first question should be: What did we do wrong? Not: who stole our votes?

Something else about the FCT elections that should worry us is the embarrassingly low voter turnout. Only 15 per cent of registered voters came out. And funny enough, that was actually an improvement; the last FCT election recorded a paltry 11 per cent. Think about that for a moment. In a country of over 200 million people where everybody complains about bad governance from morning till night, 85 out of every 100 registered voters couldn’t be bothered to walk to a polling unit.

Some blame the lack of trust in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Others say Nigerians simply don’t care about chairmanship elections; the presidential election is the main attraction. Both arguments have merit, but neither is a good enough excuse. I have always maintained that one person cannot change Nigeria.

For us to see real change, we need quality and competent people at every level of government, from the local council chairman to the president. The chairman who controls your local roads, your primary schools, and your drainage systems matters in elections, too. But try telling that to a Nigerian who thinks his vote doesn’t count. Voter apathy is a disease, and it’s eating away at whatever is left of our democracy.

Now, some political analysts have pointed out that a key factor in the APC’s dominance was the party’s decision to field indigenes in most of the council areas. And the only seat they lost, Gwagwalada, was where they did not field a local candidate. This is instructive. Nigerians, no matter how educated or exposed, have not outgrown tribal and religious sentiments. I would even go further and say tribal sentiments are stronger than religious sentiments in our elections. A candidate’s surname and state of origin still matter more than their manifesto in most parts of this country. We can pretend otherwise, but the ballot box doesn’t lie.

Also, let’s address the elephant in the room: vote buying. It has come to stay. Reports say the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) arrested some individuals with cash during the elections. Good. But will they be prosecuted? Will the cases go to court or will they quietly die in some office drawer? Until we start prosecuting vote buyers and making examples of them, all the arrests in the world are just photo opportunities.

When the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) was introduced, many believed it would put an end to rigging. What happened? Politicians simply adapted. They moved from stuffing ballot boxes to buying votes before accreditation. They are always evolving. Like I said, our politicians are always one step ahead of the system.

The biggest lesson from the FCT elections is this: the ADC still has a mountain of work to do if it hopes to make any serious showing in the 2027 presidential elections. Structure still matters in Nigerian politics, no matter how much you dismiss it in the face of social media noise. No matter how badly the PDP has performed in recent months, with the internal wrangling, the exodus of members, and the leadership crisis, they still have structures on the ground. The PDP’s win in Gwagwalada, while barely functioning as a party, tells you everything you need to know about the power of political structure versus internet popularity.

Here is what the ADC needs to understand and understand quickly: the fact that times are hard and Nigerians are suffering does not mean they will automatically vote for the opposition. Hunger is not a manifesto. Discontent is not a campaign strategy. The ADC coalition, as it stands today, is a collection of disgruntled politicians from the APC and PDP who couldn’t get what they wanted in their former parties and have now found a new vehicle. That is not a movement; that is a convenience store.

And this business of different factions within the party threatening that it’s either their candidate or nothing – that road leads nowhere. You cannot wrest power from an incumbent president with a fractured House.

President Bola Tinubu, whatever you think of his policies, commands the machinery of the ruling party and the advantages of incumbency. Taking him on in 2027 requires unity, discipline, a coherent message, and boots on the ground in all 36 states and the FCT. Not Twitter wars and press conferences.

The opposition must also present a credible alternative, a fresh face that inspires confidence. Recycling the same politicians who have been part of Nigeria’s problems for decades and packaging them as agents of change is an insult to the intelligence of Nigerians. If ADC’s best offering for 2027 is the same retreads from APC and PDP, then they are not offering change. They are offering a change of party logo on the same old product.

The FCT elections have spoken. The question is whether anyone is listening.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​