Like World Bank, IMF Upgrades Nigeria’s Economic Growth Outlook To 4.4%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its economic growth forecast for Nigeria to 4.4 per cent in 2026 and 4.1 per cent in 2027, aligning with a similar positive revision by the World Bank, and citing improved macroeconomic stability as a key driver for the country and sub-Saharan Africa.

In its January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF raised the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region’s growth projection to 4.4 per cent in 2026 and 4.6 per cent in 2027—upward revisions of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from October estimates.

For Nigeria specifically, the 2026 forecast marks a 0.2 percentage point increase, while the 2027 figure is 0.1 points higher than previously projected.

Recall that the World Bank released its 2026 Global Economic Prospects report, which included the upgraded 4.4 per cent growth outlook for Nigeria in 2026 and 2027, on Tuesday, January 13, 2026.

This projection revises earlier forecasts, such as the June 2025 edition’s 3.7 per cent for 2026, amid ongoing economic reforms and sector rebounds

Meanwhile, speaking at a press conference to launch the January WEO in Brussels, IMF Division Chief, Research Department, Deniz Igan, noted that Sub-Saharan Africa was one of the regions where the fund recorded upgrades to growth forecasts for 2025.

She said “growth is now projected at 4.4 per cent, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than our earlier estimate for 2026 and 2027, we expect growth of 4.6 per cent, representing a cumulative upward revision of 0.3 percentage points compared with our October projections.

“These upgrades are driven by three main factors. First is the strength in commodity prices, particularly for gold, copper and coffee, commodities for which several countries in the region are major exporters. Second, macroeconomic stabilisation efforts are beginning to yield results in key economies, notably Ethiopia and Nigeria. Third, ongoing structural reforms in another major regional economy, South Africa, are also supporting the improved outlook.

She further said that the combination of favourable commodity price movements and a more predictable and stable macroeconomic environment had strengthened the region’s growth prospects.

“In addition, global financial conditions have been more supportive than expected. External borrowing costs have declined and, overall, conditions have improved relative to October, contributing to the upward revisions.

“That said, risks remain elevated. These include anticipated cuts in international development assistance, which could disproportionately affect low-income and fragile economies, particularly within the region. A potential tightening or correction in global financial conditions, as previously mentioned, would also pose significant downside risks.”

Meanwhile, the IMF projects that global growth will hold steady at 3.3 per cent this year, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points compared to October estimates, with most of the improvement accounted for by the United States and China.

It noted that a key driver of this resilience is the continued surge in investment in the information technology sector, especially in artificial intelligence. “While manufacturing activity remains subdued, IT investment as a share of US economic output has surged to the highest level since 2001, providing a major boost to overall business investment and activity. Although this IT surge has been concentrated in the United States, it is also generating positive spillovers globally, most notably to Asia’s technology exports.”