In 2016 as momentum was gathering before the Presidential Elections in the United States that pit Hilary Clinton against Donald Trump, the former first lady led in various online opinion polls. The polls largely contributed in making the country hold its breadth in expectation of its first female President soon after witnessing its first African-American President. However, by the time the dust settled, history wasn’t to be made for Hilary as Trump ended up winning and becoming President.
Fast-forward to the build of the Presidential elections 4-years later, most online opinion pre-election polls overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not. It was clear that Trump’s strength was not fully accounted for in many, if not most, polls. These problems led some commentators to argue that online polling is irrevocably broken, misleading and dubious, and that pollsters should be ignored.
Around the world commentators have raised concerns about online polls especially about its lack of representativeness. They maintain that it is an obvious flaw for polls that only sample a specific audience. But it isn’t just biased audiences that can skew online polls. Some are susceptible to manipulation. Worse, there exists a black market for buying online votes. This allows individuals or organizations to easily fudge poll outcomes that can be used to bully or influence citizens’ voting decisions. This apparently is what the online polls are doing to the Labour Party (LP)’s Presidential candidate.
As electioneering and politicking have undoubtedly pervaded our daily lives and routine for a while now in Nigeria, all manner of online polls have been trying to gauge the mood of the nation by supposedly asking electorates which candidate they prefer. In several of these polls the LP candidate, Peter Obi has frequently been adjudged to emerge victorious. Now this is a dangerous precedent because many of these online polls are a ruse and gambit, arrogating dubious electoral advantage to him. It is a deliberate fabrication in the pursuit of political gain.
In the build-up to the 2023 General Elections, the online space has been inundated with polls from Nextier, ANAP and Bloomberg, many of them hyping the LP’s candidate as the top choice to become the nation’s next president. Many of these polls are seemingly pushing an agenda for the LP candidate to succeed President Muhammdu Buhari in office. Many of these polls undeniably have predetermined objectives that includes erroneously endorsing the LP candidate, exaggerate his value and above all dangerously create a situation of chaos should another candidate other than him be declared.
One of the polls clearly states that Obi will win in the event of high turnout, but lose to Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) if participation is weak. Now this is indirectly riling the LP Candidate’s supporters against accepting an outcome that is not in their favour. If you are active on the Nigerian online sphere particularly with the upcoming elections, then you must have been insulted, bullied or trolled if you are not supporting or campaigning for the LP Candidate. A clear example is the recent spat on Twitter between one of the duo group P-Square and one of Fela sons and musician, Seun Kuti. One is a well known supporter of the LP Candidate while the other is not.
Since the commencement of unofficial campaigns, there have been open threats of violence by supporters of LP Candidate if he loses the election both online and offline. These online polls which mock reality could be the ignition or ammunition for what is to come if the election does not go their way. There are concerns that the country may experience an unprecedented insurrection, more severe that what was witnessed during the #EndSARS violence. It is extremely dangerous giving hope where there is obviously none.
Most of these polls are skewed, not taking into cognizance large populations that are not online. I know multitudes of people in Musawa Local Government alone who do not own smart phones. They are neither online nor willing to vote for the LP Candidate. This is a similar scenario across the country. There are also multitudes of people online also who don’t partake in such polls, deem it unnecessary, a waste of time and fraudulent. Many Nigerians are simply waiting for Election Day to physically cast their vote. This they are sure is legit and will be counted.
Recently, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) stated that 90 percent of his supporters are not on social media. His statement wasn’t unconnected to the polls amplifying the LP Candidate. In fact, NNPP Candidate further alleged that the intention of the organizers of the polls is to cause crisis after the election and get financial donations for their preferred candidate. In his words “over 90 percent of my supporters don’t even know Twitter or social media. If you want to meet them, go to Wuse Market, go to the markets in Kano, go to the market in Sabo, Ibadan, go to markets in Rivers and the roads and so on, and ask people.”
The fact is that online polls are not real determinants of elections. It is how many people you are able to convince come Election Day. This is what wins elections. It is no wonder that the LP Candidate has consistently been referred to as a social media candidate. While I acknowledge that his popularity has grown in recent days, I still maintain that he doesn’t have enough spread and structure to win the Presidential elections. Also, many on social media seemingly follow the bandwagon. Many feel it is fashionable and a trend. I just hope the lot of them would be willing to go out and vote come Election Day.
