The 2023 election year is here! The political awareness is unprecedented. The anger against the system is deep-rooted. Whatever is left of our fulsome value system is facing grievous depredation without respite. The ugly face of national disintegration has never been so advertised. Sadly, the core issues at stake: insecurity, failed economy, poverty in the land, unemployment, debt crisis etc have all taken the back seats, religion, undoubtedly, has taken the ‘Primus’ seat in the social episcopal space (apologies to the Scottish). The reality is leaving no one in doubt as to the level of fragmentation, intolerance, mutual suspicion, fear and lack of trust within the ecosystem. We, truly, should be worried!
During the primaries of the All Progressives Congress (APC) at Eagle Square, Abuja, an anonymous message started making the rounds at some point among the delegates on WhatsApp. The message reads, ‘REJECT MUSLIM-MUSLIM TICKET’. An official of the party had to address the delegates, assuring them that the party had not taken any decision regarding presidential ticket pairing. The message was said to have originated from the camp of a leading southern Christian aspirant (as it was later reported) as a last-minute strategy to sway delegates. I do not share the view of those who think the anonymous message was too poisonous for an internal party affair. Rather it shows the Christian camp in the party had a full situation awareness as to the risk of fielding a Muslim candidate from the South. They know the electoral base of the party – the North West & North East – two Muslim-dominated geo-political zones. They know that except APC is ready to take a hypothetical gamble at the general election, the party remains stuck with the same faith ticket should a Muslim emerge from the South as the flagbearer.
Regardless, many Christian delegates as well as delegates of other religious leanings voted for Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a former Governor of Lagos State. He emerged. From that moment, sagacious political minds within and outside the APC could place a life-long bet that the fate of the party was sealed for the same faith ticket considering political realities.
A few days later, Christian leaders reacted. Preachers mounted the pulpit to chant war songs against the candidacy, one respected clergy in Abuja had the church members on their feet before directing them on who to vote for. Of course, against Tinubu’s candidacy, not surprising, though. Earlier, I explained how some Christian leaders were neck-deep in Osibanjo’s presidential project. Some pulpit’s reactions after Tinubu’s emergence were largely from the depth of pains of defeat. Some were, however, genuine. The love for the faith burns.
According to Daily Trust, Tinubu set up a strategy committee after his emergence. The committee drew his attention to the sensitivity of religious balancing while alerting him to the need to secure the needed votes for victory. Eleven persons were recommended, seven from the North East and four from the North West. Kashim Shettima and Babangana Zulum topped the list from the North East while Governors El-Rufai of Kaduna State and Atiku Bagudu of Kebbi State led the North West. Yakubu Dogara was the only Christian on the list. Just so we know, the committee was headed by a Christian, a political scientist who holds a doctorate in Public Administration, and a former political adviser in the People’s Democratic Party. The thinking was clearly about victory.
All Progressives Congress was a hurricane in 2015. That steam has however gone, it has been buried by poor performance in office. The central government birthed then has been a huge disappointment. The party’s campaign focused on fighting corruption, reviving the economy and security of life and property. Sadly, the government falls below expectations on all fronts. Even the sitting Vice President, after seven years in office, could not campaign on achievements, he resulted in promises and hope building. This will certainly affect the party’s chances in the general election. As a matter of fact, the Obidient movement is only harvesting from the public disapproval. This is not limited to the southern part of the country; it is not so different in the North. The last Local Government election in Katsina State was a disaster for the party. On paper, APC won, but PDP carried the day in reality. They know it. The ruling party lost in most of the LG areas. The Buhari charm has waned. The Atiku political machine is going for the last ride, it is a make or mar for that long-standing ambition. APC knows it may need to go beyond the norm, if necessary, to emerge victorious.
Looking at the two general elections APC has been involved in, the party has never done exceptionally well in the Christian-dominated South, its stronghold remains the Muslim-dominated North West and North East, delivering over 60% of the Party’s total votes in the presidential elections. Going through the stages of descriptive, predictive and prescriptive analysis, that decision is clearly a political decision to appeal to a base where hope lies, seeing the danger in following the norm.
Inevitably, the predictive analysis (Muslim-Muslim ticket) earlier expressed at the convention later happened. The backlash is understandable. Key offices must reflect the plural characteristics of our society. Though Tinubu’s traducers have never disputed his creative governance qualities, not a few will bet their meal ticket that he will certainly do better than what currently obtains, despite his catalogue of weaknesses.
But he has inherited the failure of a government he boastfully claimed to have installed and he has an election to win.
The natural instinct is that of survival hence the hard choice of his same faith ticket.
Nevertheless, Tinubu’s team failed to heed the advice of its own all-encompassing planning and strategy committee that stated discernibly in its report, “In response to addressing the key positions, their religion and the likely public backlash that might arise … our principal should hold consultations with religious leaders across the society”. This was not done before making the very sensitive decision public. His strategy team was obviously caught napping, you do not struggle to catch up with narratives in such a very sensitive scenario, you dictate and dominate overwhelmingly. To think the PDP and the Obidient movement would allow such to slide without feasting on it was an unforced error. The noise was louder because it was fueled and energised. It caught up with their party members who also wanted to be seen as being politically correct even when they were fully aware of that possibility before supporting him for the party’s ticket.
Come to think of it, we know Tinubu’s wife is an ordained Pastor in the largest Pentecostal church in Nigeria. If he had picked a Christian Vice with a Christian wife which is the most probable, it would have been three and a half against half. Do you think those Ulamas see someone with a Christian wife let alone a Pastor as a ‘serious’ Muslim? The righteous judges can carry on with the pretence and also showily deny Pastor Remi Tinubu, professing that a vote for her is a vote against her faith. Sister Remi is only a Pastor, not a Christian! No be so?
While the Tinubu camp was caught between pleasing the pro mixed-faith crowd and appealing to the APC’s Muslim-dominated stronghold(Northeast and Northwest), the opposition at every turn would seek to profit from either option. Notwithstanding, the informed minds are fully aware that the fundamental issues in this election are beyond the sedative slant. In the final analysis, may Nigeria be the ultimate winner in 2023.
– Johnson,
Head, Directorate of Research & Strategy,Act of Positive Transformation Initiative (APTI),writes from Abuja
With all his pretences, Goodluck was promoted by Obasanjo as a good Christian from the South-South first as Vice President and later as president. The reign of the Boko Haram and herdsmen slashing the throats of farmers became ferocious under his watch. As the simple, poor faithful folks flocked to cemeteries to bury their dead, many of their faith leaders were clinking glasses of champagne in Aso Villa and purchasing jets in the name of the Lord.
For each of these leaders -Christian, Muslim or Animist – that mobilised us based on faith to gain power, public office has subsequently exposed them as mere mortals with the same pecadilloes to succumb to temptations, arrogance of power and oftentimes, gross incompetence.
Many of the antagonists of the same faith ticket argue as if the specific electoral context that led to the decision of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu to pick Senator Kashim Shettima is irrelevant. They must realise that the All Progressives Congress delegates made Asiwaju the flagbearer because he has demonstrated the tested capacity to win for the party. The concrete, visible evidence is Lagos State, where for 23 solid years, he has led the party to victory. In 16 of these years, the party that he consistently defeated in Lagos was in full control at the federal level with unfettered access to humongous resources and control of the coercive apparatus of the Federal Government.
To justify this huge confidence, Asiwaju is challenged to demonstrate that if he could help the party end the inglorious era of the PDP as the ruling party, he commands the strategic and tactical capacity to consolidate the control of the Federal Government by the APC to tame the hydra headed monsters bedevilling Nigeria currently. It is electorally, a game of numbers focused on the history of the voting behaviour of citizens for the party. When you crunch the numbers, the APC has relied on the Northern states to win the presidency. It was the repetition of the feat of 12 million votes that made the merger of the founding parties so realistic in the first place. It worked in 2015 and 2019. As it is said, you don’t change a winning formula.
For consistently delivering for the party, the Northern states have become the strongholds of the APC. President Muhammadu Buhari continues to hold sway, particularly in the North Western zone. To further consolidate the votes, the vice presidential ticket in the North East is a tactical offensive to share the votes of the rival PDP in the zone of its presidential candidate rather than give him a free ticket.
Any concerned party man who looks at the matter more from these power perspectives will likely sympathise with Asiwaju for taking a difficult but smart decision than resort to threats or tantrums. The vice presidency is significant but the Presidency is elaborate executive machinery in which many offices will require loyal and competent hands. Getting down to brass tacks, how does picking a Christian Vice President improve the general welfare of the average Christian in Zungeru, Ikoro Ekiti, Awka, Badagry or anywhere else ? How has a Christian vice president stopped or suppressed the persecution of Christians in the last seven years to justify the current cacophony ?. Yes, Nigeria is multi ethnic, multi religious, multicultural etc, but should we be perpetually trapped in the quagmire of pervasive religiosity devoid of actual spirituality ?
I was born a Christian and remain a Christian for life and no force on earth can convert me to any other religion but my faith does not enslave me to the wily self aggrandizing manipulation of some strident politico-commercial faith merchants !
This is the period Nigerians should seriously interrogate more germane governance issues like security, infrastructure, economy etc vis a vis the capacity, capabilities, track record, experience, vision, knowledge and courage of the presidential contenders rather than dissipate energy on sabre rattling, unedifying, strictly unproductive controversy over the religious tag of a ticket !
The presidential election is crucial but it will take place simultaneously with governorship, national and house of assembly elections. These are the tents that people will return to when the elections take place in February. Therefore, there is no basis for the zero-sum tension that those who lost out in the vice presidency bid are orchestrating. It’s about time Nigeria broke the chains
tying her economic, political, social and spiritual progress .
