N63.73trn 9‑month Gain Sets Stage for Dangote, NNPC Listings To Reshape NGX –Analysts

A N63.73 trillion surge in the Nigerian equities market in the first nine months of 2026 has set the stage for the listing of the Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), which analysts say will reshape the NGX.

The market’s strong performance, which saw the All‑Share Index climb 65.29 per cent year‑to‑date to 251,211.67 points as at September 30, pushed total market capitalisation to N163.105 trillion from N99.376 trillion at the end of 2025.

Analysts attributed the rally to reforms, earnings rebound and a liquidity shift, and say the planned listings will deepen market depth and lift capitalisation toward the N250 trillion range.

The market delivered a strong performance as at September 30, 2026, extending the bullish run that characterised trading during the first half of the year as investors continued to reprice listed companies.

Analysts linked the broader market rally to improved corporate earnings, increased investor confidence and continued repricing across major sectors. The strong performance has also come amid significant activity in the primary and secondary capital markets.

The vice chairman of Highcap Securities Limited, David Adnori, disclosed this in an assessment of market performance for the nine months ending September 30th.

According to Adnori, the growth is unprecedented and has beaten inflation by several hundred per cent. Looking at the market for the nine months ending today, September 30th, the market has broken all records in the first nine months of the year.

“The All-Share Index has appreciated by almost 61 per cent, which is unprecedented and unimaginable. It is in multiples of the inflation rate; it has beaten inflation by several hundred per cent, demonstrating huge profitability.”

He noted that performance has been spectacular at both the primary and secondary market levels, while the market depth is also improving significantly.

“In the first nine months, performance has been spectacular at both the primary and secondary market levels. In terms of depth, the market is also getting deeper. With the listing of Dangote Refinery Petrochemicals, market capitalisation, which is about N163 trillion now, will go to about N253 trillion, and when NNPC comes in subsequently, it will be a different ball game,” Adnori stated.

On factors driving the rally, Adnori identified political stability and market-friendly reforms as the primary drivers.

He also pointed to improving macroeconomic conditions, which have stimulated appetite for equities, adding that high interest rates have simultaneously kept the debt market active.

He further said renewed foreign investor confidence has supported the uptrend, as investors whose funds were previously trapped can now repatriate dividends and profits.

He added that rising crude oil prices have boosted foreign earnings, reserves, fiscal buffers and strengthened the naira, stimulating interest in the petroleum sector.

Also, a senior stockbroker, Mr. Tunde Oyediran, said the market’s outperformance against inflation reflects renewed confidence in macroeconomic management.

“What we are seeing is a repricing of Nigerian assets. FX stability and the clearance of trapped funds brought foreign portfolio investors back, while strong corporate earnings, especially in banking and oil and gas, kept local institutional appetite high,” Oyediran stated.

He disclosed that the debt market also remained attractive due to high yields, creating a dual opportunity for investors.

“Investors are enjoying both sides of the market. Those who missed the equity rally parked in fixed income at 20 per cent plus. That liquidity is now rotating back into equities ahead of Q4 results and expected big-ticket listings,” he explained.

He however cautioned that the market may be due for a technical correction, saying that “61 per cent in nine months is huge. We expect some profit-taking in Q4, especially if interest rates remain elevated or oil prices soften. Investors should focus on fundamentally strong stocks with dividend cover rather than chasing momentum.”