Nigeria @ 66: Stakeholders Demand Better Living Conditions, More Jobs

…Decry growth without transformation across key economic sectors

BY CHIKA IZUORA, YUSUF BABALOLA, OLUSHOLA BELLO, OLAMIDE OJUOKAIYE, KINGSLEY OKOH, Lagos,ORJIME MOSES, EJIKE EJIKE, ADEGWU JOHN, Abuja

As Nigeria marks its 66th Independence Anniversary, stakeholders across key sectors have called for the country’s vast natural and economic resources to be translated into better living conditions, lower costs, more jobs and broad-based prosperity for Nigerians.

Nigeria has built more airports, roads, ports, factories, financial institutions and energy infrastructure, but stakeholders say the country is yet to fully translate its enormous resources and expanding economic assets into globally competitive industries, mass employment and broad-based prosperity.

Across aviation, manufacturing, maritime, capital markets, telecommunications, energy, agriculture and transportation, industry stakeholders told LEADERSHIP that Nigeria’s central economic challenge is no longer a shortage of resources or market size, but the inability to convert those advantages into productive capacity, lower costs, stronger indigenous businesses and a greater share of international markets.

The concerns come as Nigeria marks its 66th Independence Anniversary, October 1, under the theme, “From Reforms to Stability: Consolidating Nigeria’s Renewed Hope for Shared Prosperity.”

LEADERSHIP reports that the Federal Government says the economy is moving from reform and stabilisation towards growth, production and shared prosperity, citing stronger GDP growth, improved external reserves, expanded domestic refining capacity and rising investment.

But across critical sectors, experts say the real test of Nigeria’s next phase will be whether these improvements translate into cheaper production, stronger businesses, more jobs, higher household purchasing power and increased participation in global trade.

 

Economy: Bigger Output, Weaker Currency

Nigeria’s economy has expanded substantially in nominal terms since independence, with gross domestic product rising from about $4.06 billion in 1960 to $290.79 billion in 2025, according to World Bank data. The economy reached a nominal value of approximately $668.22 billion in 2019, before exchange-rate movements and the effects of GDP rebasing reduced the dollar value of subsequent output.

The naira has weakened sharply over the same period. From about N0.71 to the dollar in 1960, the currency fell to approximately N1,325.73 per dollar on September 29, 2026. The government is targeting a $1 trillion economy by 2030, an ambition that will require stronger productivity, investment, diversification and exchange-rate stability.

 

Finance: Stronger Banks, Wider Reach

Nigeria’s financial sector has evolved from a largely cash-based system into a wider banking and digital-payment ecosystem. Commercial banks, fintech companies, mobile-money operators and electronic-payment platforms now support commerce, transfers and financial inclusion.

The banking industry recently reinforced its capital base through a 24-month recapitalisation exercise that ended on March 31, 2026. The Central Bank of Nigeria said 33 banks raised N4.65 trillion in fresh capital, with 72.55 per cent sourced from domestic investors and 27.45 per cent from international investors.

The exercise raised minimum capital requirements to N500 billion for banks with international authorisation, N200 billion for national banks and N50 billion for regional banks. Nigerian lenders, including Access Bank, United Bank for Africa, Guaranty Trust Holding Company and FirstBank, have also expanded across African markets.

Digital Payments: Rapid Expansion, Wider Access

The country’s payment system has expanded rapidly, with more than 10 billion instant-payment transactions, valued at over N1,000 trillion, processed in 2025. Nigeria also had more than 70 million active mobile-money and digital-wallet users, according to figures cited by the Presidency.

The next challenge is to ensure that economic growth, stronger banks and expanding payment infrastructure translate into affordable credit, productive investment, business expansion, jobs and improved living standards for Nigerians.

 

More Power Assets, Limited Reliability

Nigeria’s electricity system has expanded from just over 50MW in 1960 to about 14.1GW of installed grid-connected capacity in 2025. However, generation capacity has not translated into dependable supply.

NERC’s August 2026 operational report showed average available capacity of 4,758MW, compared with average generation of 4,102MW. About 656MW of available capacity was therefore unused on average.

Access remains poor. The World Bank reported in 2025 that only 61 per cent of Nigerians had access to electricity in 2023, leaving about 86.8 million people without access.

Power Minister Joseph Tegbe admitted on September 22, 2026 that many Nigerians still lacked reliable electricity. He said government had restored the 375MW Alaoji plant and installed about 350,000 meters during his first 100 days.

Tegbe also said government had raised about N1.23 trillion towards the sector’s estimated N3.3 trillion debt backlog, while ruling out an immediate tariff increase.

The priority now is to settle verified debts, reduce distribution losses, expand metering and strengthen transmission, gas supply and decentralised electricity.

 

Production Recovery, Urgent Need For Value Addition

Commercial oil production began at Oloibiri in 1958 at about 5,140 barrels per day. By 1966, output had risen above 417,000 barrels per day, according to a Central Bank of Nigeria review.

Production later became the backbone of government revenue and foreign exchange, but theft, insecurity, ageing infrastructure and underinvestment have weakened the industry.

NUPRC reported that crude oil and condensate production rose 0.4 per cent from 1.67 million barrels per day in July 2026 to 1.68 million barrels per day in August.

NUPRC chief executive Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan said Nigeria was targeting 3 million barrels per day by 2030, supported by new investment and licensing rounds.

 

NMDPRA said Dangote refinery operated at 105.21 per cent capacity utilisation in August 2026, supplying 35.87 million litres of petrol daily, while imports fell 26 per cent to 14.6 million litres per day.

NNPC is targeting gas production of 10bcf/d by 2027 and 12bcf/d by 2030. However, Petroleum Minister Heineken Lokpobiri said refinery operations alone would not guarantee cheaper petrol because global prices still influence the market.

The sector must now convert higher output into jobs, power, industrial growth and greater domestic value.

 

Aviation: Bigger Infrastructure, Weaker Global Footprint

Nigeria’s expansion in aviation infrastructure has failed to translate into the kind of globally competitive airline industry capable of retaining international market share, generating significant aviation revenues and strengthening the country’s position in the global air transport economy, aviation analyst and industry expert, Chris Aligbe, has said.

Aligbe warned that the gap between infrastructure development and airline performance carries significant economic consequences, particularly as Nigerian carriers remain largely confined to domestic and regional markets while foreign airlines dominate major international routes.

He said Nigeria had invested substantially in airports, airspace management and aviation regulation, but had not developed airlines with the financial strength, ownership structures and operational scale required to compete effectively in major international markets.

“Having said that, how far have we progressed? Yes, we were number one, or number two at least, particularly in Africa South of the Sahara,” Aligbe said.

Nigeria now has more than 30 airports, compared with the relatively small number that existed in the earlier decades of the industry, but Aligbe said infrastructure expansion alone had not delivered the expected economic transformation.

“Deregulation didn’t produce anything seriously beyond Nigeria, but it helped at least improve competition inside domestic competition on the airlines,” he said.

He particularly criticised the liquidation of Nigeria Airways, arguing that it removed the country’s principal international aviation platform without a sustainable replacement.

“Virgin Nigeria was not a national carrier. It was a private airline, but they gave it the cloak of a national carrier,” Aligbe said.

According to him, subsequent attempts to develop internationally competitive airlines have also been undermined by inappropriate business models and inadequate capital structures.

“The models are not right. The individual ownerships, there’s no place in the world where you have an individual ownership making waves,” he said.

While acknowledging that Nigerian airlines are expanding domestically and within West Africa, he said the country still lacks a carrier with meaningful long-haul international reach.

“Our airlines are beginning to pick up at domestic and regional level, West African sub-region, but outside the African continent, there is no Nigerian airline that is rated,” he said.

“There’s no hope that we have any carrier that will go towards the international in the next four or five years,” he added.

Aligbe said the situation limits Nigeria’s ability to capture the economic value of its huge passenger market and strategic position in Africa.

 

SMEs Still Trapped By High Operating Costs – ASBON

For Nigeria’s millions of small and medium-sized enterprises, the business environment remains one of the biggest barriers to translating economic reforms into jobs and investment.

National President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria (ASBON), Dr. Femi Egbesola, said the government must urgently improve infrastructure, taxation and access to affordable finance if MSMEs are to become engines of economic growth.

“For us in the business sector, what we are asking for is ease of doing business. The business environment has been very harsh over the years,” he said.

He said the departure or closure of major businesses should prompt a review of the operating environment.

“What we are now telling government is to create an enabling business environment, improve ease of doing business, do policies that support business, and leave us to do business.

“We are the ones that should be doing business, not governments doing business, because we create the jobs,” he said.

Egbesola criticised what he described as taxation that does not reflect business realities.

“Most taxes are not reflective. You see a business doing a turnover of N20 million a year, you go and give the business a tax of N64 million, it doesn’t add up,” he said.

He also identified the high cost of credit as a major constraint.

“When you have an environment whereby you have interest rates at 32, 38, 40 percent, you need to bring collateral that you don’t have at an SME before you can access it. You have a number of terms and conditions that are unmeetable. It rubs off doing business,” he said.

He called for affordable finance, improved foreign exchange access, stronger public procurement for locally produced goods and backward integration.

“We need policies that are able to encourage export of our products instead of bringing in imported products. We need government to be able to intervene, to make possible backward integration, whereby many of those raw materials we are bringing from overseas and equipment, our own people will be enabled to be able to produce them here,” he said.

Egbesola said Nigeria must create an environment in which small businesses can grow into major corporations.

“It is very hard to see a small company within two or three years becoming another Dangote or another Unilever because the environment does not support such growth,” he said.

“In 2026, moving forward, they should declare a state of emergency in the manufacturing or industrial sector. This sector needs to be supported. SMEs too need to be supported if we are really serious about growing our economy,” he added.

 

Manufacturing: Expansion Without Competitiveness

Nigeria’s manufacturing sector has grown substantially since independence, but the industry continues to struggle with electricity costs, logistics, foreign exchange, finance, taxation and imported inputs.

At independence, manufacturing contributed about 3.2 per cent of GDP. By 1975, its contribution had risen to approximately 9.5 per cent.

Today, manufacturing remains an important component of the economy, but its contribution and growth continue to be constrained by high production costs.

Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry president, Engr. Leye Kupoluyi, said the government must lower the cost of doing business and accelerate job-creating growth.

He said macroeconomic stabilisation must ultimately translate into improved welfare and purchasing power.

Despite moderation in inflation, he said essential goods remained expensive for many households, while high diesel and petrol prices continued to increase production and logistics costs.

Kupoluyi called for reliable energy, affordable long-term finance, predictable trade policies, stronger local supply chains and industrial infrastructure.

The objective, he said, should no longer be simply to increase the number of factories, but to build an industrial ecosystem capable of producing competitively and at scale for both domestic and export markets.

 

Capital Market: From 19 Securities To N163.5trn

Nigeria’s capital market represents one of the clearest examples of expansion since independence.

The market began trading in 1961 with only 19 securities. Today, equity market capitalisation stands at N163.53 trillion, while the NGX All-Share Index closed at 251,913.20 points on September 30, 2026.

The transformation, however, is not merely about size.

Vice chairman of Highcap Securities Limited, Mr David Adonri, said the market had evolved from a predominantly debt market into a broad financial system capable of mobilising capital for government and the private sector.

He said the market now has more than 250 listed equities and about 350 securities when debt instruments, commercial papers, exchange-traded funds, mutual funds and derivatives are included.

Adonri said the market became a more critical factor in the economy following the indigenisation exercises of 1972 and 1978, which encouraged foreign-owned enterprises to list and bring domestic investors into ownership.

He recalled the 2008 market crisis but said subsequent reforms had strengthened the market.

However, he said Nigeria must continue to deepen the market.

“Nigeria needs more quality listings, greater sectoral diversification, deeper domestic institutional participation, stronger retail investor protection and easier access for foreign investors. Policy consistency, reliable foreign-exchange liquidity and continued investment in market infrastructure will also be essential.”

 

Telecoms: Despite 195m Phone Lines, Infrastructure Gap Persists

Nigeria’s telecom sector has moved from a 1960 system serving fewer than 20,000 telephone lines to a digital economy backbone, but gaps in infrastructure, investment, and service quality threaten the next phase of growth.

At independence in 1960, Nigeria had just 18,724 telephone lines serving a population of about 40 million.

According to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the network comprised 121 exchanges, with only five of them automatic.

Sixty-six years later, telecommunications has become one of the country’s most important economic platforms. Active mobile subscriptions stood at 195.11 million in July 2026, according to the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), while broadband subscriptions reached 124.42 million.

The transformation accelerated after the 2001 GSM revolution, when private operators entered a market previously constrained by inadequate infrastructure and limited capacity. Mobile phones subsequently became tools for banking, commerce, education, employment and access to government services.

Similarly, the economic footprint has expanded rapidly, with telecommunications and related information services contributing 9.72 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP in the second quarter of 2026, up from 9.20 per cent in Q2 2025, according to NCC data based on National Bureau of Statistics figures.

While stakeholders asserted that Nigeria has expanded connectivity on a massive scale, this growth exposes a contradiction, as the infrastructure deficiencies that diminish the quality and economic worth of that connectivity remain largely unresolved.

Also, fixed fibre access remains particularly limited, even as NCC data shows only 319,735 Fibre-to-the-X subscriptions in Q2 2026, despite the rapidly growing demand for high-speed connectivity.

The industry has also had to contend with rising energy and operating costs, fibre cuts, vandalism, right-of-way difficulties, multiple taxes and other pressures that increase the cost of deploying and maintaining networks.

For NCC Executive Vice Chairman, Dr Aminu Maida, quality of service is “non-negotiable”, reflecting the growing expectation that telecoms should function as critical infrastructure rather than simply a commercial service.

Looking ahead to the nation’s next phase at 66, the challenge is no longer simply connecting Nigerians. It is turning connectivity into productive economic capacity.

Nigeria needs faster fibre deployment, stronger protection for telecom infrastructure, predictable regulation, reduced barriers to rights-of-way, more investment in resilient power solutions and policies that encourage long-term infrastructure financing.

Operators must equally translate investment into stronger networks, wider coverage and more consistent service.

However, the real measure of Nigeria’s telecom progress in the years ahead will therefore not be the number of SIM cards or subscriptions, but how effectively reliable and affordable connectivity drives productivity, jobs, digital businesses and inclusive economic growth.

 

Maritime: Vast Resources, Limited Indigenous Capacity

Nigeria’s maritime sector remains another area where the country’s geographical advantage has not translated into commensurate economic power.

Twenty-eight of Nigeria’s 36 states can be accessed through water, while eight states share the Atlantic Ocean coastline. Yet stakeholders say the country remains heavily dependent on foreign shipping capacity for international trade.

More than 80 per cent of indigenous shipping companies are estimated to have gone under, while the country’s maritime infrastructure has struggled with congestion, inadequate investment and weak integration.

Maritime expert Edmund Chilaka said successive governments had failed to properly harness the economic opportunities associated with sea trade.

He singled out the 1987 establishment of the National Maritime Authority as a major intervention in indigenous shipping.

“The IBB regime in 1987 made the biggest impact by setting up the National Maritime Authority, which empowered indigenous shipping companies, allocated cargoes and gave loans that enabled vessel acquisitions,” he said.

Chilaka said government should focus more on developing Nigerian maritime manpower and indigenous shipping capacity.

“Politicians leading the industry today conflate national interest with personal trips to IMO meetings for estacode allowances and making a show of London trips, whereas they ought to be empowering the nautical schools to churn out qualified seafarers with COCs for employment in foreign-going ships,” he said.

He also called for greater access to government cargoes for Nigerian shipping companies.

“The government ought to empower indigenous shipping companies to come into their rights to federal and state government cargoes to participate in international trade. Instead, they are reduced to begging for handouts from the Dangote Group,” Chilaka said.

President of the Shippers Association of Lagos State, Rev. Nicodemus Odolo, acknowledged recent developments but said the sector had suffered years of inadequate investment.

“We cannot say there is nothing happening in the maritime industry, but for some years, it was as if nothing was happening. We were largely depending on what had been developed since the 1970s and 1980s, including Tin Can Island Port and other facilities. There was no significant development for quite some time.

“But we have to thank God that the present government is talking about several things it wants to do. If these plans are implemented, they could make a difference. In terms of government structure, the maritime sector now has a dedicated ministry, which is the Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy. That, in itself, is a development,” he said.

Odolo said implementation and policy continuity were critical.

“If we can properly exploit what is available in the ocean, Nigeria can become a great country. We are now seeing developments and master plans being prepared. The important thing is for these plans to be implemented and sustained even when there is a change of government because maritime development cannot be completed within four years,” he said.

He added: “Port development was abandoned for years, and that is why our ports became overstretched, with infrastructure deteriorating. But now, it appears that attention is being given to developing more ports and expanding infrastructure. So, in the maritime sector, we have better days ahead.”

Odolo however, called for stronger protection of Nigerian businesses.

“We must learn to protect our own industries and our own citizens. The interest of Nigerians should be central to government policies. In Nigeria, foreigners are coming in to undertake clearing businesses that should provide opportunities for local operators. This is not how we develop our own economy,” he said.

“Nigeria is the biggest market. The population is an opportunity. If every family can produce something and the government protects local businesses, that is how industries grow. That is how countries such as China developed. We need to begin to see our population as an economic advantage,” he said.

 

Energy: From Crude Exports To Refining

Nigeria’s energy industry has undergone perhaps the most dramatic structural change since independence.

From crude exports of less than 20,000 barrels per day around independence, the country became heavily dependent on oil revenue during the 1970s.

The industry is now entering another phase, driven by domestic refining, renewed upstream investment and expanding gas infrastructure.

Nigeria’s liquids output stood at about 1.68 million barrels per day in August 2026, according to NUPRC data, while crude oil and condensate reserves stood at about 37.01 billion barrels as of January 1, 2026. Gas reserves stood at approximately 215.19 trillion cubic feet.

The challenge is increasingly to convert reserves into sustainable production and secure crude supply for domestic refineries.

The growth of the Dangote refinery and modular refineries has also altered the downstream landscape, reducing Nigeria’s historical dependence on imported petroleum products.

Meanwhile, TotalEnergies and AMNI International reached an $800 million Final Investment Decision in September 2026, while Shell committed $2 billion alongside Sunlink Energies to supply feedgas from 2028.

NLNG Train 7 is expected to raise production capacity from 22 million to 30 million tonnes per annum.

NNPC Limited is targeting crude production of two million barrels per day by 2027 and three million barrels per day by 2030, alongside 12 billion standard cubic feet of gas production daily by 2030.

The company also plans to mobilise $60 billion in upstream, midstream and downstream investments by 2030.

 

Agriculture: Bigger Numbers, Low Productivity

Agriculture remains central to Nigeria’s economy but continues to face insecurity, high input costs, poor infrastructure, weak processing capacity and inadequate access to finance.

At independence, agriculture contributed more than 60 per cent of GDP and over 70 per cent of export earnings, with cocoa, groundnuts, palm oil, cotton and rubber among the major export commodities.

Today, the sector remains a major contributor to GDP but has struggled to reclaim its former position in export markets.

NBS data showed agriculture grew 4.39 per cent in real terms in Q2 2026, up from 2.82 per cent in Q2 2025.

AFAN Vice President Daniel Okafor said high fertiliser, seed, labour, transportation and machinery costs continue to erode farmers’ margins, while insecurity prevents many producers from safely accessing their farms.

The livestock subsector also demonstrates the scale of the opportunity and the data challenge.

The NBS estimated Nigeria’s livestock population in 2022 at about 54.81 million cattle, 138.95 million goats and 64.93 million sheep, while the Federal Ministry of Livestock Development reported higher 2024 estimates.

Agricultural economist Aliyu Sani said Nigeria had failed to fully convert the size of its livestock population into economic value.

“Nigeria has a very large livestock population and the sector has the capacity to contribute significantly to employment, food security and economic growth. However, we have not been able to fully translate this potential into economic value because of weaknesses in production, inadequate data, limited access to quality feed and veterinary services, and gaps in processing and marketing infrastructure,” he said.

He added: “Going forward, government needs to move beyond simply increasing livestock numbers. There must be deliberate investment in productivity, animal health, reliable data, processing facilities, storage and market linkages. If these areas are properly addressed, Nigeria can build a livestock sector that contributes much more meaningfully to the economy.”

 

Transport: Expansion Without Integration

Nigeria’s transport network has expanded dramatically since independence, but road dominance and weak integration continue to impose significant costs on the economy.

At independence, Nigeria had about 45,500 miles of roads, of which only 7,700 miles were bitumenised, while the railway network stood at about 2,180 miles.

Today, roads still carry the overwhelming majority of passengers and freight.

The Federal Ministry of Works said about 95 per cent of Nigerians depend on roads for movement and transportation of goods and services.

Rail and aviation have expanded, but the modes are not yet sufficiently integrated into a national multimodal transport system.

The Federal University of Transportation, Daura, Vice-Chancellor, Professor Umar Adam Katsayal, said Nigeria needs safer, integrated and affordable mobility.

He argued that rail should be connected to ports and industrial centres, inland waterways developed for freight where commercially viable, and urban mass transit incorporated into long-term transport planning.