Nigeria May Record 31,400 Heat-Related Deaths, Report Warns

Nigeria could record an additional 31,400 heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 as an unusually intense El Niño weather pattern drives temperatures higher, according to a report by the Climate Impact Lab.

The projection places Nigeria among the countries expected to record the highest number of additional heat-related deaths globally during the six-month period, accounting for nearly half of the 66,800 deaths forecast across the Sahel region.

The report, published on 22 September 2026’ and titled 4571,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Niño, estimates that 451,000 additional heat-related deaths could occur worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027 compared with a normal year.

The researchers project that global land temperatures will rise 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal in the coming months, with 44 per cent more extremely hot days than would typically be expected.

Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and professor of economics at the University of Chicago, highlighted the human cost of the projections, saying the figures represented people going about their everyday lives.

“We have long been able to predict the impacts of temperatures on crops, and now we can predict their impact on the worst outcome—death. The result is that we now can estimate that 451,000 people may die in the coming months due to El Niño. This is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbors, people going to work, caring for families, and living their lives,” Greenstone said.

The researchers said the extreme temperatures expected during the El Niño event offered a glimpse of conditions that climate change could make commonplace within the next two decades.

“This is more than a hot summer, it’s a postcard from the future,” the report stated.

It added, “The anomalously warm temperatures that most of the globe will see during this El Niño event are a ‘postcard from the future’: while they feel anomalous now, they will become normal just a few decades into the future.”

The report said the projections could help governments and humanitarian organisations identify vulnerable populations and direct resources towards interventions capable of saving lives.

It added that targeted measures could prevent tens of thousands of deaths if implemented in time.

“With these timelines in mind, there is time to reduce the numbers of lives lost by tens of thousands with targeted action,” it stated.

Nigeria is projected to record 15,400 additional heat-related deaths between December 2026 and February 2027, according to the report.

“The most impacted countries across the Sahel are forecasted to see an additional 66,800 heat deaths from September-February compared to a normal year, with nearly half of those lives being lost in Nigeria (31,400). Elsewhere in the region, Sudan will face 17,500 additional heat deaths, Niger will face 10,000, and Chad 8,000.”

To reduce the projected toll, the researchers recommended heat warnings, health outreach to vulnerable people, cooling centres, hydration stations, workplace protections and increased healthcare capacity.

They also highlighted heat early-warning systems and action plans that would enable health officials to check on vulnerable residents, improve access to water and monitor symptoms associated with extreme temperatures.

The researchers urged governments to combine immediate emergency responses with long-term planning to protect communities as temperatures continue to rise.

Tamma Carleton, a co-author of the report and an assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said emergency interventions could save lives in the short term, but sustained preparation was necessary to address the long-term threat.

“Increasing emergency response and better targeting our efforts can save many lives this year. But 20 years from now, once today’s extreme temperatures become the new normal, we don’t want to be in a constant state of emergency,” Carleton said.

She added, “We need to mobilize resources now to design, deploy, and evaluate the preparation and planning tools that will save lives in the years ahead.”

The researchers based their projections on the relationship between temperature and excess mortality across 24,378 regions worldwide, combined with seasonal temperature forecasts.

The estimates compare projected heat-related deaths with the average for the corresponding months between 1996 and 2025.

They cautioned that the figures could change as weather forecasts are updated and that heat-related deaths could continue rising beyond February 2027.