In a democracy, the existence of multiple viable political parties is not a luxury—it is a necessity. It ensures representation, accountability, and a competitive political marketplace where ideas, policies, and leadership are rigorously tested. Political competition is the oxygen of freedom. It allows citizens to choose, to reject, to correct. In Nigeria, that oxygen is thinning rapidly.
Today, the political winds have shifted dangerously. With each passing election cycle, each court verdict, and each wave of defections, our democracy is being quietly strangled. What we are witnessing is no longer a matter of political dominance by the ruling party; what began as subtle state capture and elite consensus-building has morphed into something more brazen: a systematic hollowing out of the opposition and the entrenchment of a de facto one-party state.
It didn’t happen overnight. Nigeria’s democratic backsliding has been a slow burn, fuelled by a potent mix of institutional decay, voter apathy, electoral manipulation, and an increasingly compliant judiciary. These factors have conspired to give the illusion of multiparty politics while effectively stripping opposition parties of real influence. The result is a country where the ruling party governs with impunity and dissent is either co-opted, criminalised, or rendered irrelevant.
Elections, once viewed as a means of change, are now largely ceremonial exercises. From ballot snatching and voter suppression to the weaponisation of security forces and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the state machinery has become an appendage of the ruling party. Court verdicts increasingly reflect political expediency rather than constitutional fidelity. Opposition victories are overturned or frustrated on flimsy technicalities, while ruling party candidates benefit from judicial indulgence.
In the 2023 elections, several opposition governors, senators, and representatives found their mandates nullified under suspicious circumstances. In contrast, the ruling party’s candidates with equally contentious electoral processes were affirmed. Such selective justice feeds the perception and perhaps the reality that the judiciary has become a tool in the consolidation of power. This is not hyperbole or alarmism. It is a sober reading of Nigeria’s political trajectory since 2015, accelerated in 2019, and now reaching a dangerous crescendo in 2025.
Democracy, Dismantled by Design
When the All Progressives Congress (APC) swept into power in 2015, it was on a wave of public disillusionment with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The electoral victory was celebrated as proof that Nigerian democracy had matured. A peaceful transfer of power, a viable opposition, the promise of reform, a clean break from corruption, nepotism, and elite impunity. Ten years later, that promise has not been fulfilled.
The PDP, once Africa’s largest political party, has been reduced to a shell of its former self, plagued by internal divisions, ageing leadership, and a failure to adapt to a new political reality. Newer parties like the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) have stirred hope among some segments of the population, but still need strong grassroots structures, internal coherence, and political sophistication to ensure they are not left vulnerable to the same tactics that crippled the PDP.
The ease with which opposition figures are absorbed into the ruling party shows that the ideological differences between parties are blurred, if they exist at all. Political affiliations are often transactional, based on personal survival rather than any commitment to public service or democratic principles. Former opposition stalwarts regularly defect to the ruling party in the aftermath of elections to “align with the centre”, a euphemism for securing patronage and avoiding prosecution.
The courts, INEC, and the security agencies, the tripods meant to uphold democracy, have increasingly tilted toward the ruling party. And the consequences are devastating: the judiciary loses public trust, the ballot box loses meaning, and democracy becomes a hollow shell.
The Judiciary and Security Architecture’s Credibility Crisis
Perhaps the most alarming trend is the judiciary’s deepening credibility crisis. Recent judgments, particularly in election tribunals and the Supreme Court, have left Nigerians baffled and enraged. Verdicts are increasingly perceived as politically motivated rather than grounded in law.
This erosion of judicial neutrality is not just a legal issue; it is a democratic emergency. When courts become extensions of executive power, justice dies, and impunity reigns. Without an independent judiciary, no opposition party can hope to survive, let alone govern. The security agencies on the other hand, have increasingly acted as enforcers for the ruling elite. Peaceful protests are met with disproportionate force. Critics are surveilled, harassed, or detained. Journalists and civil society actors who challenge the state narrative are branded as threats to national security.
During elections, the security forces are often deployed to maintain order, only to be used in ways that intimidate voters or protect certain interests. Without independent security forces, electoral bodies, and courts, democracy becomes a theatre, staged for international observers and foreign investors while the real decisions are made in smoke-filled rooms far from the public eye.
The weaponisation of the security apparatus further compounds the danger. During elections, these forces are often deployed not to ensure voter safety, but to secure victory for the ruling party. In places like Kogi, Rivers, and Imo, electoral observers have documented widespread intimidation and vote suppression. Yet, the institutions meant to intervene remain silent or complicit.
A Complicit Elite, A Disillusioned Citizenry
Nigeria’s political elite, irrespective of their party affiliation, often share more in common with each other than with the citizens they claim to represent. Mutual interests unite them: access to state resources, control over patronage networks, and protection from accountability. This elite consensus has enabled the ruling party’s dominance to remain largely unchallenged, even by those who profess to stand in opposition.
Meanwhile, Nigerians have grown increasingly cynical. Voter turnout has plummeted, especially among the youth. Trust in electoral institutions is near rock bottom. Many no longer see elections as vehicles for change but as rituals of elite affirmation. The energy and hope that accompanied previous democratic transitions have been replaced by resignation and disillusionment.
The implications are profound. When citizens withdraw from democratic participation, it creates a vacuum that authoritarian tendencies are eager to fill. The current political climate fosters an illusion of democracy without its substance—a dangerous, unstable, and ultimately unsustainable state. A few critical steps are necessary to reverse this descent into a one-party state.
First, judicial reform. The judiciary must reclaim its independence, even at great institutional cost. A court system that bends to political pressure undermines democracy at its core. Second, electoral integrity. INEC must undergo structural reforms to restore independence. State electoral commissions, long the tools of incumbent governors, must be abolished or drastically reformed.
Third, civil society, including the media must redouble its efforts to educate, mobilise, and advocate. Fourth, Nigeria’s fragmented opposition must find common cause. This is not the time for ego battles and regional calculations. A democratic front must be forged, or all parties will eventually perish under the weight of one-party dominance.
Finally, we are at a pivotal moment in history and Nigerians must resist the normalisation of political hegemony. Democracy, for all its flaws, remains the most inclusive form of governance. Its failure is not inevitable; it is a function of collective abdication. Only collective re-engagement can reverse it. In the face of creeping authoritarianism, silence is complicity. And complicity is how democracies die.
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