Nigeria’s LNG Export Records 10-month High

Nigeria’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) deliveries reportedly rose by around 30 per cent year-on-year between January and October to their highest level since 2020, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says.

According to the IEA Global Gas Security Review 2026, released on Tuesday, Nigeria provided additional LNG to international markets following the escalation of the Middle East crisis and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“LNG deliveries rose by around 30 per cent y-o-y between January and October to their highest level since 2020, supported by improved feedgas availability and greater prioritisation of supply to the liquefaction complex,” the IEA said.

It said Nigeria is sub-Saharan Africa’s largest gas-consuming country, with “demand set to increase by around 2 per cent y-o-y in 2026”.

“Demand is led by power generation, followed by fertiliser and petrochemical production, industrial heat and the oil and gas sector,” the agency said.

“Transport use is expanding from a low base, supported by the government’s vehicle-conversion programme and investment in compressed natural gas refuelling infrastructure.

“Upstream availability improved in 2026 amid fewer pipeline disruptions and regulatory measures to unlock supply.”

The agency further said gas supplied to Nigeria’s domestic market increased during the first half of 2026, but met only around 65 percent of producers’ domestic supply obligations, reflecting persistent infrastructure, payment, and market constraints.

“Better feedgas availability lifted utilisation at Nigeria LNG’s six-train liquefaction complex above 80 per cent.

Train 7 entered pre-commissioning in 2026, with start-up targeted for the end of 2027 subject to sufficient feedgas,” the report reads.

“Once in operation, it would raise nameplate capacity from 22 Mtpa to 30 Mtpa.”

According to the report, Africa’s gas demand is met predominantly from domestic production.

“Algeria and Nigeria are self-supplied, while Egypt combines declining output with pipeline gas and growing LNG imports. Several smaller coastal markets receive LNG or pipeline imports, but limited regasification capacity and fragmented networks restrict access,” the report said.

“A sizeable share of African production is exported because export infrastructure is often better developed than domestic transport and distribution.

“The Middle East crisis has affected African gas consumption unevenly. In largely self-supplied markets, including Algeria and Nigeria, domestic production limited exposure to disrupted LNG imports.”

According to the agency, the crisis also redirected part of Africa’s available LNG supply towards international markets without materially weakening demand in the region’s largely self-supplied markets.

“For LNG importing systems, particularly Egypt, the main impact has been higher supply costs and greater exposure to international cargo availability rather than weaker underlying demand,” the report futher said.

“Egypt increased LNG and pipeline imports to sustain record power-sector consumption despite declining domestic production, deepening its structural import dependence.”

The IEA said Europe is entering the 2026-2027 winter heating season with its lowest natural gas storage levels since 2013, potentially extending tight conditions in global gas markets well into 2027.

According to the report, the low inventories will increase Europe’s reliance on global LNG supplies to meet peak seasonal demand, leaving the region vulnerable to colder-than-expected weather and supply disruptions.

The agency said the effective halt of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz reduced loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates by more than 60 billion cubic metres (bcm) between March and October 2026, pushing Asian and European gas prices to their highest levels since the 2022-2023 supply crisis.

The report said global gas markets have become more interconnected over the past decade, but the Strait of Hormuz disruption has tested their resilience.

The IEA projected that global LNG supply would fall by 3 percent, or almost 20 bcm, in 2026, while gas demand is expected to decline by around 1.5 percent, or close to 65 bcm.