Nigeria’s Phone Market Faces Threat as Costs Soar

Africa’s smartphone market ended 2025 on a strong growth trajectory, but that momentum may be short-lived. The continent is heading for a significant correction in 2026, with shipments forecast to decline by almost 25 per cent as rising component costs threaten the affordability of entry-level devices.

According to a report by Omdia released on February 25, 2025 shipments across Africa rose 14 per cent year-on-year to 23.1 million units. For the full year, the continent shipped 84.4 million smartphones, marking a 13 per cent growth and its strongest recovery phase since 2021. This performance was fuelled by expanding device-financing options, stabilising currencies, and festive-season promotions.

However, the data reveal the market under intense pressure as the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones in Africa jumped 11 per cent in the final quarter of 2025, a direct consequence of rising bills of materials. Even as the trend is expected to accelerate in 2026, it will create a surge in price for the continent’s core consumer base.

While Nigeria was a standout performer in the 4th quarter of 2025, with shipments expanding by 25 per cent. The growth was driven by sustained uptake of affordable 4G smartphones as broader connectivity usage continued to rise. The sub-US$200 segment remained the dominant volume tier, underscoring the Nigerian market’s reliance on budget-friendly devices.

But this reliance is now the country’s biggest vulnerability, as a vast majority of purchases concentrated in the price-sensitive entry-level bracket, Nigerian consumers are directly in the crosshairs of global inflationary pressures.

Hence, the changing dynamics are reshaping the competitive landscape. Transsion, the parent company of Tecno, Infinix, and Itel, retained its market leadership with a 44 per cent share. However, its growth moderated sharply to just three per cent.

Principal Analyst at Omdia Manish Pravinkumar explained, “TRANSSION retained leadership with a 44 per cent market share, but growth moderated to three due to its heavier concentration in ultra-low-price bands, which made it more exposed to pricing pressure in key African markets”

In contrast, competitors with broader portfolios are capitalising on the shift. Samsung delivered its strongest quarterly result since the 4th quarter of 2021, growing 27 per cent by leveraging its Galaxy A-series and greater cost absorption capabilities. Xiaomi grew 12 per cent through improved channel execution, while OPPO secured fifth place with 26 per cent growth by targeting mid-range and premium segments.

However, the outlook for 2026 seems stark as Omdia forecasts a 23 per cent year-on-year decline in shipments across the continent, a correction triggered by the very forces that defined the 2025 rally. According to Pravinkumar, With 81 per cent of 2025 shipments priced below US$200, the region’s core volume segment remains highly exposed to component inflation. “As prices increase, prepaid and first-time buyers are likely to delay upgrades or shift toward lower configurations and refurbished alternatives.

The analyst further noted that markets like Nigeria and Kenya, where demand is heavily concentrated in sub-US$200 devices, are likely to see the sharpest volume contractions, while Egypt may prove more resilient due to its local manufacturing base, and South Africa’s mature operator-led market offers some insulation through postpaid plans, as this pressure will not be evenly distributed.

For Nigeria, where the digital economy’s growth is tied to expanding access, the forecast signals a potential stall. With channel partners expected to adopt tighter inventory discipline and reduce exposure to slower-moving entry-tier models, the dream of ubiquitous, affordable smartphones for all may face its toughest test yet in the coming year.