OPEC May Not Review Output Level In November

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC);producers are set to leave their current crude oil output quotas unchanged for November at a meeting this weekend, anonymous sources familiar with the plans told Reuters Wednesday.

The Gulf producers in OPEC+ have been producing and exporting much lower volumes sin ce the Iran war crippled traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

In the early September monthly meeting, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman decided to maintain the September 2026 required production quotas for October 2026, after having unwound a total of 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) of collective cuts that began in 2023.

OPEC+ has been raising nominal production quotas for most of this year, but actual supply to the market has been well below the required levels of production, due to the Middle East conflict.

Crude oil production at many of the Gulf states has been seriously lagging behind the OPEC+ quotas, which have more or less become irrelevant since March as the Strait of Hormuz disruptions trapped a significant part of supply in the Persian Gulf.

The producer group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, appears to have shifted its focus to debates and discussions about the 2027 quotas, which the alliance plans to review and set the baselines for any cuts going forward.

In recent weeks, OPEC’s oil production fell in August due to lower Saudi supply, but the output at the core OPEC+ producers increased.

Saudi Arabia’s oil production fell in August amid Houthi threats to shipments in the Red Sea, dragging OPEC’s output down, a Bloomberg survey showed. 

But OPEC’s data in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for September showed that total crude oil production in the whole OPEC+ alliance averaged 38.05 million bpd in August 2026, up by 300,000 bpd higher compared to July.

Production at OPEC+ is about 5 million bpd lower compared to pre-war levels, as almost all OPEC Gulf members are trailing behind their quotas due to the ongoing shipping disruptions