Operator, Retailers Project N1,500 Petrol Price As Crude Nears $100 On Hormuz Closure

A refiner has projected that a litre of petrol in Nigeria could reach N1,500 in the coming week, driven by global crude prices nearing $100 per barrel amid risks in the Strait of Hormuz.

This is as the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has attributed current pump price fluctuations to market forces in the country’s deregulated downstream sector.

A source close to global crude operations confided in LEADERSHIP that escalating tensions from Iran’s attacks in the Middle East could push crude to $100 this week.

Dangote Refinery has responded by adjusting its gantry price to N995 per litre.

Spokesman for the Dangote Refinery, Anthony Chiejina, in a conversation with our correspondent on Saturday expressed deep concern over the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the resultant rise in crude oil prices.

Chiejina said the refinery buys crude in dollars and hinted that the cost of freight and insurance had reached record levels and, as such, operational costs are higher than before.

According to Chiejina, the refinery is paying N948 for its coastal delivery, with the situation becoming increasingly difficult for operating entities.

He, however, assured that the firm’s management would continue to honour its obligations to the Nigerian people.

Following the increase in the ex-depot price, retail stations also raised pump prices to as high as N1,100 per litre, depending on the location.

In Lagos, NNPC Limited outlets sold petrol at N1,040 per litre—up N47 from N993—while independents like Emadeb Energy, PM Petroleum (N1,040), Techno Oil (N1,050) and MRS Oil (N1,057) matched the rise.

Abuja has seen pump prices rising to N1,050 at Gegu Oil Nigeria and N1,080 at Empire Energy, with Ardova Plc at N959.

Prior to the Middle East conflict, PMS averaged N774 (now N950–N970, up 25 per cent), while diesel rose from N950 to N1,400 (a 47 per cent increase).

The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) urged NNPC Ltd. CEO Engr. Bayo Ojulari to activate local refineries.

PETROAN president Billy Gillis-Harry, who spoke in Port Harcourt, Rivers State, warned of N1,500 PMS and over N2,000 diesel if Hormuz threats persist.

He noted that domestic refining will act as a buffer against imports.

On his part, NMDPRA spokesman George Ene-Ita told the News Agency of Nigeria that variations—from N875–N880 to N960–N1,000-plus—stemmed from supply and demand dynamics, not regulation.

“Nigeria’s fully deregulated regime since this administration fosters competition and investment,” he explained, addressing motorists’ concerns.

Ene-Ita said the variations in pump prices across the country were not due to regulatory interference but were driven by supply and demand forces within the market.

“Nigeria has been operating a fully deregulated downstream petroleum regime since the inception of the current administration.

“Therefore, pump price vagaries are purely as a result of market dynamics,” he said.

He explained that under a deregulated framework, petroleum product prices respond to prevailing market conditions.

He added that the policy direction was aimed at allowing market forces to determine prices while encouraging competition, efficiency and increased investment in Nigeria’s downstream oil and gas sector.

With crude at $91 per barrel on Friday amid US–Israel–Iran escalations, industry observers anticipate ongoing adjustments.

PETROAN’s Gillis-Harry noted that President Tinubu’s reforms could deliver long-term stability.

According to the PETROAN president, the ongoing conflict involving Israel, the United States and Iran is driving global petroleum prices to extremely high and alarming levels.

He noted that persistent drone and missile attacks pose serious threats to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route that accounts for about 30 per cent of global crude oil transportation.

The situation is worsening. Before the war, PMS sold at N774 per litre.

Currently, as tensions intensify, PMS sells between N950 and N970 per litre.

This represents an overall increase of about 25 per cent for PMS.

For AGO (diesel), the price was N950 per litre before the war but has risen to N1,400 per litre today, an increase of about 47 per cent.

He emphasised the urgent need to rehabilitate Nigeria’s local refineries to enable immediate production.

He explained that domestic refining would reduce exposure to international market shocks, since crude oil is abundantly available under the custody of NNPC Ltd.

Local refineries, he said, are less vulnerable to global disruptions compared to privately owned refineries that rely on imported crude.

The PETROAN president warned that if the conflict persists, PMS could rise to nearly N1,500 per litre, while AGO may exceed N2,000 per litre in the near future.

As PMS remains a critical commodity for Nigerians and AGO is essential for manufacturing and industry, further increases would worsen inflation, raise transportation costs and drive up prices of goods nationwide, he stated.

Dr Gillis-Harry, however, assured Nigerians that the reform policies of Bola Ahmed Tinubu would ultimately bring relief to citizens and stimulate economic growth.