Having projected that the Nigerian economy will grow at between 3.27 and 3.32 per cent this year, economist, Dr ‘Biodun Adedipe said, his optimistic view of the economy is based on the business friendly manifestos of the three major contenders in the upcoming presidential race.
The World Bank had, earlier this year, in its Global Economic Outlook, reviewed Nigeria’s growth downwards from 3.1 per cent to 2.9 per cent, as against the 3.32 per cent projected by the founder and Chief Consultant of B. Adedipe Associates Limited (BAA Consult).
Speaking at the 2023 edition of its Nigeria Economic Outlook themed: ‘Nigeria Economic Outlook 2023: A look ahead’ organised by First Bank of Nigeria(FBN), Dr Adedipe said, his optimistic view of the Nigerian economic growth is premised on, not only the business friendly policies of the major presidential contenders, but also on expectations that monetary policy as well as inflation figures in the country will temper.
Nigerians will be going to the polls next month with the major contenders for the presidential ticket being Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Party(APC), Peter Obi of the Labour Party(LP) and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP).
Despite the gloomy picture of a slower economic growth painted by the World Bank, Adedipe said: ‘we expect the Nigeria GDP to grow between 3.27 and 3.32 per cent.’
Giving reasons for his optimistic view, he said: “between January and September 2022, the Nigerian economic grew by 2.97 per cent on the average. And if you look historically, that is basing on data from 1960 to date, you discover that, historically, our economy grows strongly in the last quarter of the year, that has been a historical pattern.
“So, if that was the case, that would mean last quarter of 2022. our economy must have grown maybe slightly above three per cent.
along with 2.97 per cent for the first three quarters of the year, we probably must have ended 2022 at a little above 3.1 per cent.”
Noting that, with elections and a change of government coming in first half of this year, he said: “when a new government comes in, in May 29, and then they have the second half to deal with.
you interact with the manifestos of the three leading presidential contenders, what we find is, number one, they all have business friendly manifestos.
“To that extent, we also predict that there is likelihood that if any of them gets into the office, we believe strongly that they are likely to put together the cabinet before September, and then of course, also start running.
“So if that happens, then we see a second half year in 2023 that would be better than the first half year. So that is where the expectation is coming from. Secondly, we expect inflation rate to moderate this year, but still remain double digit at around 17 per cent.
Asides this, he noted that, “monetary policy normalisation will start as early as the second quarter of this year. We expect that MPR which is at 16.5 per cent may likely go down by the second half of this year. But then lending rate will remain double digit, this year and we can’t escape that because we are in an inflationary environment.”
In his opening remarks at the event, executive director, Treasury and International Banking, First Bank, Mr Ini Ebong, noted that, the rising monetary policy rates, increasing debt portfolio, volatile revenue from crude oil and brain drain due to talent emigration, amongst many other factors, have become a wake-up call for proper dimensioning of issues to drive fiscal and other policies that will be instrumental to ensuring the gains of previous years are sustained and that the economy wades through the seemingly consistent challenges.
He further stressed that 2023, being an electioneering year has increased the chances of macro and micro economic challenges that may exacerbate the attendant hiccups of changes in political administration, especially at the federal level.
