Two disturbing incidents this week in Kaduna and Kebbi States, involving members of the opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC), offer an ugly picture of what 2027 could look like.
In Kaduna, a meeting convened by former Governor Nasir El-Rufai and some ADC members was violently disrupted by youths who stormed the venue, smashing car windscreens, windows, and injuring participants. In Kebbi, the convoy of former Justice Minister and Attorney-General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami, was attacked in Birnin Kebbi while he was on a condolence visit to bereaved families.
Videos of these incidents, now trending online, paint a scary picture. If we are already witnessing thuggery and politically motivated violence two years before the elections, one can only imagine the scale of violence to expect ahead of the 2027 polls unless security agencies take urgent and concerted measures.
The videos of the attacks show able-bodied youths, deprived to the point of losing the capacity for critical thought, who seem oblivious of their real enemies and the devastation inflicted on our common patrimony.
These same youths, whose lives remain stagnant due to poor leadership, appear to be acting on behalf of political patrons who care little about their future. That victims of bad governance could descend so low as to attack perceived enemies of their oppressors is a sad reflection of the hopelessness that hangs over Nigeria’s future. But that is Nigeria. Our Nigeria.
Alarming Data
But let us take a deeper look at Kaduna and Kebbi States, two states in the northwest, the region with the highest number of poor people and out-of-school children. The social indices of Kaduna and Kebbi help explain the ease with which the youth are recruited into thuggery.
Kebbi, with an estimated six million people across diverse ethnic groups—Dakarkari, Kambarawa, Gungawa, Hausa, Fulani, and Zabarmawa—has a multidimensional poverty rate of 79.1%, according to the 2022 National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Nearly 90% of rural children live in poverty, and 67.6% of the state’s children are out of school. This is a governance failure, pure and simple.
Although Kaduna fares a little better, it is not where it should be. The Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) records show that 3.74 million residents live in poverty, with 73% of households lacking sanitary facilities and 64% lacking access to clean water. Yet, the state’s 2025 budget allocates N3.8 billion for lawmakers’ vehicles. In such a climate of deprivation, it is hardly surprising that idle and frustrated youths become pawns in the political chess game written by the very elites who perpetuate their misery.
The two incidents are not isolated. El-Rufai, target of the Kaduna attack, has been in open conflict with Governor Uba Sani, his one-time mentee and successor. Similarly, Malami is known to have a frosty relationship with Kebbi’s Governor Nasiru Idris.
Complicit Security Agencies
Even more troubling is the conduct of security agencies. In Kaduna, eyewitnesses insist the attack occurred in full view of police personnel deployed to provide security. Their failure to act fuels allegations of complicity. Seventy-two hours later, no arrest has been made, either of the attackers or their sponsors.
To worsen matters, a former lawmaker tried to justify the violence by accusing El-Rufai of introducing thuggery into Kaduna politics. But even if his claim were valid, since when did two wrongs make a right?
In Kebbi, officials have offered conflicting explanations. Governor Idris’s Special Adviser on Special Duties, Shafiu Abubakar Zauro, claimed Malami’s loyalists launched the attack after failing to receive payment for escort duties. However, APC state chairman Abubakar Mohammed Kana contradicted him, alleging that Malami’s men first attacked APC members at the party’s secretariat, insisting that the members defended themselves. Neither narrative explains why scores of vehicles in Malami’s convoy were destroyed, while there is no evidence of damage to the APC secretariat.
Both states are already grappling with insecurity. Bandits and Lakurawa terrorists continue to slaughter innocent citizens across the northwest states of Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, Kaduna and Kebbi. Yet, youths have chosen to turn their rage against political opponents instead of confronting the real threats.
Nigeria once hoped it had outgrown political thuggery with the demise of the opposition PDP, the party that elevated thuggery to a state policy. But recent events prove otherwise. What we are witnessing is not progress but a dangerous relapse and indeed, a rapid descent into thuggery.
The Kaduna and Kebbi incidents are red flags that must not be ignored. Wishing them away would be like plaiting a lice-infested hair. As for the outcome of such an exercise, your guess is as good as mine.
The least the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the party that prides itself on thriving on progressive ideals, can do is ensure the recent relapse to thuggery is nipped in the bud. It is shameless for persons in a position of authority to use thuggery as a cover for their inept leadership.
Security agencies, particularly the police and DSS, must bring the perpetrators and their sponsors to book. If they fail, citizens may resort to self-help, and as campaigns draw closer, violence will likely escalate into a sustained cycle of physical assaults. But can Nigerians trust the security agencies to be non-partisan?
