Resource Curse, Capabilities and Underperformance: Policy Lessons From The England vs Argentina Semi-final Match

By Nonny P. Ugboma, PhD

I would first like to say that I am not a scholar of the resource curse theory under development, but a specialist on the role of dynamic capabilities in development. However, I would like to draw on the resource curse argument in this article. I happen to be a long-time Arsenal fan, since the days of Wrighty, having grown up supporting Spurs and moving with most of my siblings from supporting Tottenham to another North-London club after Ian Wright joined Arsenal in 1991. Yet, despite having some of the best players, Arsenal, as we all know, entered its drought years after winning the league in 2001/02 and then again in 2003/04, which was the season of the “Invincibles,” where they won the EPL undefeated in all 38 matches.

Naturally, the drought years made watching a full Arsenal match excruciating for me. I remember in 2010 letting Arsenal Wenger know this when I met him in the hotel lobby in South Africa, when I went for the FIFA World Cup courtesy of my then company, MTN, which was the headline sponsor. So, I have also endured long-time pains of watching Arsenal’s league’s effort disintegrate year after year. Thankfully, Arteta has removed the cloak of shame from my beloved team with a resounding win of the league in 2026!

In addition to supporting Nigeria’s Eagles and Falcons, I am also an avid England fan—so a conflict of interest will arise if they both meet at the World Cup, to be honest, and perhaps I will switch my television off and say, “May the best team win.” Although this article is about England, there are some similarities with the Nigeria team! I feel the same pain watching England play at the European Championship (Euros) and the FIFA World Cup as I used to feel watching Arsenal. Then, whilst watching the nightmare semi-final match against Argentina, which involved me moving in and out of the living room as I yelled in disbelief, what came to mind was the resource curse development theory and this is what woke me up at 4:15 a.m. in the morning after the match to write this article.

According to Sachs and Warner’s core finding in their seminal 1995 paper, “Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth”, resource-rich nations underperform because abundant resources stifle innovation and inhibit the structural development and growth of other competitive sectors of the economy, such as manufacturing. Essentially, in development economics, resource-rich countries, such as oil- and mineral-rich nations, have structural weaknesses, and there seems to be a parallel in football whereby a team like England, having arguably some of the world’s best individual players, lacks tactical cohesion. Historically, England has possessed a wealth of world-class individual talent, such as the 2000s “Golden Generation” of Beckham, Lampard, and Gerrard, and now the modern generation of the “Hurrikane,” Bellingham, Saka, Foden, just to name a few.

However, because these players are so individually brilliant, it appears that the team managers have not been able to develop a cohesive system, as the superstars may somehow be countering their collective efforts. This is similar to Arsenal’s 22-year drought story, whereby the team had amazing individual players such as Fabregas, Van Persie, and Sánchez, yet the club failed to win the league as they seemed to have relied on individual sensational performances. Thankfully, in 2026, Arteta made a breakthrough, as it was clear he strictly prioritised collective discipline over individual hero egos.

Institutional Complacency and the “Comfort Zone”

According to proponents of the resource curse, resource-rich states often fail to innovate because their abundant resources make them too comfortable. This comfort means they lack the desperation that often drives relatively resource-poor nations like Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan to build highly efficient systems.

Allow me to draw a parallel here with the England team. My argument is that perhaps, by having the richest domestic league and a huge pool of talent, there may exist an underlying institutional arrogance that success should happen naturally. I say this because, repeatedly, when facing cohesive teams (like Croatia in 2018, Italy in 2021, or France in 2022), England’s star-studded squads routinely failed to “seize the day.” “Come on, England,” I would scream whilst moving away from the television and out of the living room, as it just came across as though they lacked the collective audacity and psychological resilience to play a remarkable game.

My sons’ late father often said to them, “Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid.” The England coaches and managers need to instil this mantra into the squad to enable them to tap into this strong belief system. The absence of boldness was evident in England’s 2026 World Cup semi-final exit to Argentina, as it perfectly demonstrated the Paradox of Plenty. Rather than using a world-class attacking arsenal to put the game to bed, the management suffered tactical paralysis. Leadership failed those boys on the field by reducing their possession to a shameful 12% after taking the lead. England deprived their own star talents by handing the field over to Messi. It was shocking watching England fail to exploit Argentina’s over-reliance on Messi. I was screaming, “What are you doing? Six defenders?” It was only a matter of time before the incredulous wall was bypassed by Messi, and then, six minutes into stoppage time, they brought in Rashford and Toney, which truly was medicine after the carnage, and the rest is the unfortunate outcome that is now history. The management essentially incapacitated the wealth of talent on that stadium in Atlanta. Those boys were not allowed to exhibit institutional courage to keep fighting to the finish line. England needs to learn Arsenal’s lesson that structural robustness and aggressive collective intent must replace defensive cowardice. Otherwise, their abundant resource wealth will continue to be a curse.

England demonstrated that wealth without a robust institution is a liability. Arsenal’s 22-year drought ended in 2026 because Arteta built a robust system. Therefore, for national teams like England and Nigeria, and indeed emerging economies, the lesson is clear: if you do not build a system to process and protect your wealth, your wealth will eventually destroy you.

My Suggested Way Forward

England may have to bench some global stars and build an engine room with lesser-known and brilliantly talented players, particularly midfielders, to provide the flexibility needed for the smooth running of the team and the emergence of a side capable of winning international tournaments, because I am beginning to have PTSD from hearing commentators constantly refer to the 1966 World Cup! That reference is another discussion on self-fulfilling prophecy, and they simply need to stop making that reference, as that may be another curse the team and country may have to exorcise. I would leave that for someone else to write about.

Ultimately, the Football Association and the management of the England team, like the emerging economies I write about, need to build a capable institution to break that long drought. England needs to, as a matter of urgency, deal with its resource curse and implement structural reforms like Arsenal’s board did with Arteta, to finally break the national team’s cycle of underperformance so that they can bring the cup home.

As I conclude this piece, England has a chance to win the third-place match against France as an appetizer to winning the next Euro tournament following deep audit that will enable the complete restructuring and building of robust capabilities within the team. In the same way, I hope that lessons can be drawn from this piece on the importance of building robust systems and capabilities to ensure public value creation and social and economic development in resource-rich markets.