Securities Firm Projects N100trn NGX Market Cap By Year-end

The managing director and chief executive officer of APT Securities and Funds Limited, Kasimu Garba Kurfi, has projected that the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) market capitalisation will surpass N100 trillion by the end of 2025, buoyed by foreign exchange stability, strong corporate fundamentals, and increased primary market activities.

He stated this at the Mid-Year 2025 Capital Market Review and Outlook organised by the Capital Market Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CAMCAN) in Lagos.

Kurfi said the second half of the year will witness improved market performance, with inflation expected to slow, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) likely to cut the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), and treasury bill yields projected to fall.

He added that the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) should rise, while the exchange rate will remain relatively stable, creating a favourable environment for equities.

According to him, the NGX will end the year stronger than 2024, with a market correction in the short term paving the way for sustained gains.

He noted that more financial institutions are expected to recapitalise, while primary market activities will remain active in the months ahead.

Kurfi identified key drivers of the 2025 market rally, including the elimination of foreign exchange-related losses by companies. He pointed out that in 2024, listed firms posted pre-tax FX losses of N507.2 billion, up from N359 billion in 2023, representing a combined N867 billion loss.

“In 2025, we have seen zero FX losses due to exchange rate stability, which has significantly boosted investor confidence,” he said.

The APT Securities MD said the signing of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA 25) has triggered a rally in insurance stocks. The CBN’s bank recapitalisation programme has revived the primary market, attracting over N2 trillion in 2024, and similar volumes are anticipated in 2025.

He also revealed that foreign capital inflows reached $5.6 billion in the first quarter of 2025, up from $3.4 billion in the same period in 2024, representing a 67.42 per cent increase.

“Foreign portfolio investment now accounts for 27.08 per cent of market participation, or N1.14 trillion, as of July 2025, compared with less than 10 per cent at the end of 2023.

“Domestic investors, however, remain the dominant force, accounting for 72.92 per cent, or N3 trillion. Daily market turnover has also improved sharply, averaging N25 to N30 billion, compared with N5 billion in previous years.

“Performance data for the year shows the NGX turnover reached N4.19 trillion for the first half of 2025, compared with N2.60 trillion in the same period in 2024. Total market capitalisation rose to N126.73 trillion from N112.6 trillion in December 2024, while equity capitalisation surged to N92.73 trillion as of August 7, 2025, from N62.66 trillion at the end of 2024.

“The All-Share Index (ASI) climbed to 146,569.35 basis points in early August, up 41.61 per cent from 102,926.40 points in December 2024,” he explained.

For investors, Kurfi recommended a focus on blue-chip stocks with strong fundamentals and insurance companies, particularly those that have diversified into asset management, including pension fund administration.

He advised portfolio diversification to include fixed-income instruments for balance, adding that the capital market remains the best hedge against inflation and naira devaluation in the current economic climate.