Shettima And The 2nd Term Brouhaha

The North East APC Summit and its delegates delighted us with the usual free-for-all by politicians, each group rooting for their own cause or their own candidates. The endorsement of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu without a commensurate endorsement of Kashim Shettima as his running mate was the cause of the uproar.

Even if other zones did a similar type of endorsement for Mr. President alone, this particular one, being in Kashim’s homestead, didn’t help matters. It was seen by most as a slap on the face, without Kashim’s endorsement by some notable party figures, even if majority of the delegates, if not all, supported his endorsement. Some others believed that it was the highlight of the so-called rift between Kashim and his principal.

They think it is finally being brought forward at an official stage. But a cursory look will tell you otherwise. In Hausa, they say, “Ba’a mugun sarki sai mugun bafaje”. The King is usually harmless but the people around him are. Kashim fought off many other aspirants to the vice-presidential nomination and won the race. This whole episode is a second coming of that race.

Kashim has been closely associated with Jagaban for over 20 years, since his days as a banker in Lagos. Throughout his tenure as Governor of Borno State, he remained a close ally of Jagaban and openly voiced his support for President Tinubu’s quest to succeed former President Muhhammadu Buhari. As a senator, barely two years into his tenure, he began mobilising support for Tinubu’s ambition, garnering support for  Jagaban in the National Assembly, and across major party stakeholders, including serving and past governors. He also held interviews and press briefings ‘yarning’ plenty of English, as to why Jagaban should be supported as Buhari’s successor. His brazen support for Jagaban eventually fractured his relationship with some powerful forces within the PMB government and the party. People who were averse to Tinubu’s ambitions. Kashim remained relentless and unruffled by the antics and harassments of the power bloc that were hell bent on stopping Jagaban.

When Kashim was picked as VP-nominee, it was a no-brainer. Most APC faithful and political analysts welcomed the decision, and the party as a whole was confident about his capacity, his political sagacity, and his loyalty. A war time governor who had performed sterlingly well, ushering in development in Borno State, despite the war against Boko Haram and ISWAP, an eloquent senator of the Federal Republic, and an ardent canvasser for the Jagaban project; are all the qualities that couldn’t be wished away by any of the contenders for the VP slot.

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The North East, like the North Central and South East, had been short-changed in terms of chances at political leadership in the country. The argument of the politics of inclusion in favour of those regions, augured well for Kashim, who is from the North East. Unsurprisingly, through the campaigns, he was vibrant, charismatic and energetic. He was quite instrumental to the campaign and the younger generation of northerners identified with him, and he connected with them very well. Of course, Jagaban is quite a force in the North, but Kashim further cemented the northern support. He became a close ally of the Northern Ulama and mobilised for their support. He still does.

Kashim’s tenure as VP is not so lacklustre after all, to warrant such an attempt to have him sidelined from the ticket in 2027. He has been a good student of power, thus rendering himself less colourful compared to former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, and less powerful when compared to Atiku Abubakar. Some insist Tinubu has had three different deputies when he was Lagos governor, and therefore, Kashim is likely to be dropped. But again, those dropped were not all at the turn of a second term, as they were mostly midterm and had fallen out because they committed one political blunder or the other.

Kashim is more experienced, seasoned and refined compared to those deputies. The two scenarios are quite different. Dropping a deputy governor is not the same as dropping a VP. In the last two years, Kashim has stayed on his lane, doing his boss’s bidding only. He has not overstepped, nor has he appeared to overshadow his boss. With my ‘ear to the air’, I have heard that Mr. President instructs him directly on issues he wants him to handle on his behalf and everyone else has to take a queue from the VP. Which means Mr. President is not unaware of subtle moves to malign the VP. He is therefore protecting himself in his own clever way. There is no VP or deputy that doesn’t want to succeed his boss, so Kashim’s supposed presidential ambition is not out of the ordinary. It is normal for one to aspire to that level. Most governors and senators nurse that ambition. It is not a sin.

The VP’s office has so many projects and programmes under its wings. The $617 million i-Dice funds for youth empowerment and skills acquisition, the Pulaku Initiative that is putting billions of naira in war and banditry ravaged states for the provision of social amenities and the development of infrastructure, and the workings of PEBEC (Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council) that has been engineering a more conducive business environment for both local and foreign investments are just a few bits, from the very hectic schedule of the Vice President’s office. The camaraderie that he extends to friends and associates of the President, party bigwigs, serving and ex-governors, senators and Reps members, by attending their events is a huge political networking avenue which people love to dismiss and clown over.

The political wages in those events, including the commissioning of projects in various states, are bigger than the imagination of the ordinary eye. While you are ridiculing him, he is busy amassing a political connect that cannot be rivalled by anyone in the country these days, aside Mr. President, of course.

As it is, Mr. President will allow those aspiring to be VP picks to continue to do their thing, excelling in their various appointments, while trying to oust the VP. If Mr. President makes an early pronouncement, the race is over too suddenly and he will not get the maximum energy and support he’d have wanted from those characters. So, allowing them to outdo one another, including the VP, is a perfect political manoeuvre or gamesmanship. Again, Mr. President would be building on his support base and not bringing it down or breaking it into pieces, just the way the opposition and the coalition are doing.

Taking out Kashim would mean breaking up or bringing down his house. It would be playing to the gallery of the opposition. But I trust Mr. President’s judgement; I am sure he wouldn’t do anything detrimental to his success.

For those playing dirty and trying to bring down the VP, tarnish his political image or belittle his stature, they will definitely meet their nemesis. You can’t be conscientiously trying to bring a man down, and believe God will give you a free pass. Hell no! From the sidelines, as a political analyst, a columnist, and a keen observer of Kashim’s political trajectory, I doubt if his path is narrowing. He is a mentee of Jagaban, and no other mentee can claim ‘Jagabanism’ more than him . He has always belonged to the empire and is not a newly recruited running mate, who is alien to the inner caucus. He was not married to the ticket overnight. He is part of the inner workings and knows the inner workers exceptionally well. If there were any clear and present danger for him, he would have had a different countenance. As it is, he continues to face his duties diligently with all the vigour and dedication in his heart. Kashim deserves a second term, no doubt, right?