Stock Market Gains N1.665trn In 3 Days As Analysts See $60bn Boost From Dangote Refinery Listing

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) has added N1.665 trillion to its market capitalisation in three days as capital market analysts and the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr Jumoke Oduwole, project that the listing of Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals could further lift the bourse by about $60 billion.

The proposed listing of Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals is expected to add about $60 billion to the market capitalisation of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), capital market analysts have said.

The market performance, which had been in decline in anticipation of the Dangote Refinery offer, has picked up over the last five days, with the market value increasing by N1.665 trillion as of 16 September 2026.

This is as the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr Jumoke Oduwole, projected that the transaction could add about $60 billion to the Exchange’s market capitalisation.

The projection comes as analysts place the refinery’s value above its indicative IPO valuation, citing the company’s earnings growth, refining capacity, and planned expansion as factors that could support a higher market valuation over time.

The refinery is offering 4.1 billion ordinary shares at N525 each, seeking to raise about N2.15 trillion from the public. At the offer price, its indicative market capitalisation is about N65.22 trillion.

The vice chairman of Highcap Securities Limited, Mr. David Adonri, said the $60 billion valuation of Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals in the Trade Zone Enterprise (TZE) will be fully reflected when its entire issued share capital is listed.

“When the entire issued share capital is listed on NGX, it will increase the market capitalisation by about that amount,” Adonri said, affirming the minister’s statement.

He said the listing will deepen the market, attract global big-ticket investors, reduce volatility by increasing absorptive capacity, and raise the capital market’s contribution to GDP.

The managing director/CEO of ECL Asset Management Limited, Mr. Charles Fakrogha, described the IPO as long-awaited and an opportunity for average Nigerians to own industrialisation, with as little as 10 units at less than N6,000.

“You are not just buying a company, you are buying industrialisation and no more queues in the Nigerian fuel market,” he said.

He said the $60 billion boost shows the market has come of age and should encourage other industrialists to list, while advising investors to use approved channels.

The managing director of Globalview Capital Limited, Mr. Aruna Kebira, said the listing will add over N4.4 trillion on day one, based on the $5.33 billion offer at a 30 per cent premium.

“It is going to be about N4.4 trillion that will be added to the market cap on the day of listing, and it will be more than that as the price appreciates,” he said.

He described the stock as a long-term hold, saying that “this is not tomorrow’s stock, it is not December’s stock, it is not even 2027 stock. If you buy Dangote Refinery today at that price, you may never see that price again.”

Kebira noted massive interest in the IPO, saying that the refinery will become the fourth Dangote Group listing after Cement and Sugar.

He added that over 25 stocks are now worth more than N1 trillion, up from 4 previously, indicating market development.

He also cited strong earnings, with the half-year 2026 profit already exceeding the full-year 2025.

For Aliko Dangote, President of Dangote Industries, the offer is a ‘People’s IPO’ targeting at least 10 million investors, with priority for retail investors in case of oversubscription.

“This is more than a capital-raising exercise. It is a historic opportunity to deepen financial inclusion and enable ordinary Nigerians to become co-owners of a world-class industrial enterprise. We believe prosperity should be shared by the many, not concentrated in the hands of a few,” he said.