The Obidients, The Jagaban And The Icarus Syndrome

I admire and respect the energy and passion of the Obidients and like I said in an earlier write-up titled “Who Are These Obidients?”, I believe that they wish to effect a social and political revolution which those of us in the larger political parties have to be very wary of.

I also believe that if they stay together and don’t run out of steam and if properly harnessed and managed over the next few years they may present a formidable challenge to us somewhere down the line. Yet the truth is that like a rough and uncut diamond they are still very far from their mark, they still have a long way to go from achieving perfection and they still have much to learn.

They are a formidable movement as I said in my earlier write up and I, unlike many others, take them seriously. I am glad that they have ventured into the dark and murky waters of Nigerian politics and it is my prayer that they survive it and last, even if they don’t make an appreciable impact at the polls next year. Yet if the truth be told, as at today, they are more like a loose canon than a guided missile. Anger alone cannot fuel a revolution: there must be purpose.

And that clear purpose is something that they seem to lack and which their leader, other than just wanting to be President of a so-called New Nigeria, clearly is incapable of providing. Worst still, hubris, which always leads to nemesis, is beginning to creep into their ranks.

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They remind me of the Greek mythological figure known as Icarus who overeached himself by flying too close to the sun with his wax wings, challenging the gods and boasting that he could touch the heavens. Needless to say the wings melted and he came down crashing.

What worries me the most for them is, given their high expectations, the rude shock and sense of despair that will engulf them and the suffering and mental trauma they will experience after they receive a crushing defeat in next years presidential election.

And receive it they will. I doubt that they will win one Senatorial district or one seat in the House of Representatives let alone a Governorship election or the Presidential election. It is after they have tasted and suffered that defeat that their resolve will be truly tested. It is at that time that we shall find out whether they are the men and women they claim to be or that they are mere children, venting on social media and expressing their frustrations at any and every public event.

I had argued in my earlier contribution that they have vision and potential and that what makes them so dangerous is their revolutionary zeal and ideas and their desire to establish a new cadre of Nigerian leaders and sweep away the old. I maintain this position but one thing is clear: the old political order will not allow this to happen without a good fight.

And even if it were to ever happen it would take a good number of years and much struggle. After 2023 comes the real test for them. After they suffer their first defeat next year they will either loose their nerve, freak out, crack up, break ranks, fall into disssaray, whine like neophytes, sulk to heaven and back, suck their little thumbs and insult the entire world on social media or they will accept their lot, pull themselves together, establish a new and firm resolve e to fight on regardless, consolidate their ranks, organise themselves into a new and formidable force and functional political party and prepare for the next election in four years time.

Sadly I suspect they are incapable of the latter simply because their leader lacks that level of focus, strength, commitment, fortitude or gravitas and I am not sure that there is anyone else within their ranks that can rise up and harness their remarkable energy and strength. None of their leaders have the energy, charisma and strength of Yahaya Bello, the White Lion.

None has the wisdom, patience, knowledge and firm resolve of Mai Mala Buni or the commitment to hard work and dedication to duty, excellence and enterprise of Babagana Zulum. None has the gentle, kind, accommodating, alluring and incisive disposition of Sani Bello (Abu Lolo) or the faith, steadfastness and loyalty of Bello Matawalle. None has the vision, courage and firepower of Nasir El-Rufai, the profound and calculating disposition and utter genius of Sani Musa (313) or the depth of knowledge and brilliance in oratory of Kashim Shettima.

None has the calm resolve and iron will of Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Gburugburu), the calculating, tenacious and tactical disposition of Rahman Abdul Rasaq, the zeal, confidence, enterprise, experience and byzantian cunning of Orji Uzor Kalu or the irresistible charisma and pugnacious spirit of Nyesom Wike. None has the intellectual depth of Kayode Fayemi, the lion heart of Dapo Abiodun, the scholarly insight of Ben Ayaade or the focus, determination and creativity of David Umahi. I look into the ranks of their leaders and all I see is weakness.

The only exception is my older brother and dear friend Doyin Okupe who, as a highly experienced old war horse and veteran politican, is capable of holding his own in any fight but who, deep down, is a die-hard conservative, a product of the ruling class and a man that can hardly be described as a revolutionary. I will say little about my brother Datti Ahmed, Obi’s running mate, who I happen to have a soft spot for and who has done a great job in the education sector other than to say that no true progressive or revolutionary would ever publicly proclaim that homosexuals and lesbians should “be killed” simply for being different.

And even if they believed that should be the case, fewer would have the temerity and sheer indiscretion to blurt it out on the floor of the Nigerian Senate for the entire world to see and hear. Is that what the Obidients have in store for us? A world that is so intolerant of those that do not conform with their thoughts, vision, views, way of life, values and sexual preferences? Are they really prepared to kill those that do not share their views or that are gays and lesbians?

I hope not because that would be heartless, fascistic, unjust, ungodly and simply barbaric and that is not the Datti Ahmed that I know and respect. Yet say it he did and I repeat, all I see in the ranks of their leaders is weakness. I do not see any strength. I do not see any fire. I do not see any strong resolve. I do not see any passion or zeal and I do not see any fortitude to see the fight through to the end, no matter the cost. Simply put they have no Achilles of the Mermidans in their battle ranks, no Hector of Troy, no Sir Arthur Dayne (the Sword of the Morning) and no Khaleed Ibn Waheed (the Sword of God). They have no Aragorn of Gondor on their front line, no Alexander the Great, no Salahudeen Ayubi, no Ragnar Lothbrook, no Uthred of Bebbanberg and no William Wallace of the Mcregor’s. They have no Robert the Bruce in their formations, no Bonny Prince Charlie, no Khaleesi, Mother of Dragons, no Beowulf son of Ecgtheow and no Daemon Targaryan, Prince of the Seven Kingdoms.

They have no Kahl Drogo of the Dothraki in their forces, no Jehu son of Nimshi, no Maximus Meridius of Rome, no David son of Jesse, no Grey Worm of the Unsullied, no Legolas of the Elves and no John Snow of the Targaryan’s. They have no Gideon son of Joash in their vanguard, no Abner son of Ner, no Jeptha son of Gilead, no Eleazar son of Dodo, no Shammah son of Agee and no Ishbaal the Tachmonite.