Upstream Regulator Pursues Initiatives For 2.5m Daily Crude Output Target By 2027

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has revealed how it is preparing to achieve the country’s aspiration of producing  2.5 million barrels of oil per day  (bopd) by 2027.

Speaking at the 2025 National Association of Energy Correspondents (NAEC) conference in Lagos on Thursday, on the topic, “Nigeria’s Energy Future,” the  commission’s chief executive, Gbenga Komolafe, said the NUPRC was playing a big  role in driving the upstream oil and gas industry’s rebound.

According to him, the Commission has prioritised production optimisation and recovery enhancement to achieve expectations.

In addition, Komolafe said that by reviewing field development plans, supporting brownfield optimisation and enabling the re-entry of shut-in wells, the NUPRC had facilitated renewed activity across mature assets.

The CCE, represented by the head of the Commission’s office in Lagos, Paul Osu, noted that the interventions were projected to deliver incremental volumes exceeding one million barrels of oil per day, a key milestone toward achieving the national production target of 2.5 million bopd by 2027.

He stated that a sustainable rebound also demanded secure infrastructure and credible measurement systems, and the Commission had collaborated with security agencies, private contractors and community stakeholders in implementing the Upstream Measurement Regulation and the Advance Cargo Declaration Regulation.

He disclosed that the result was a remarkable 90 per cent reduction in crude oil theft from over 102,000 barrels per day in 2021 to 9,600 barrels per day as of September 2025.

Komolafe said, “Equally transformative is the agency’s work in host community development, through which it implements the PIA’s Host Communities Development Trust (HCDT) provisions. The Commission has successfully inaugurated over 90 Trusts across the Niger Delta, ensuring that development funds flow directly to communities.

This model not only secures local ownership but also guarantees peace, stability, and continuity in production, key pillars for sustained energy security.”

He added, “The rebound we are witnessing in Nigeria’s upstream sector is not by chance; it is the outcome of deliberate regulatory design, anchored on transparency, efficiency and inclusiveness.

“The Commission’s strategic vision aligns with Nigeria’s broader economic goals and global sustainability commitments.

“At the same time, we are advancing Nigeria’s gas agenda as part of the “Decade of Gas” and the nation’s energy transition pathway. Natural gas remains our most reliable transition fuel, a catalyst for industrialisation, power generation and clean energy substitution.” Komolafe noted.

He further said that by promoting gas monetisation, flare elimination and gas-based investments, the Commission reinforced Nigeria’s commitment to a just and balanced energy transition.

He said the IEA projected that upstream investment would surpass $580 billion in 2025, marking a steady recovery from pandemic lows, adding that while renewables would continue to grow, hydrocarbons would remain central to industrialisation, particularly in emerging economies like Nigeria.

“Our task, therefore, is to ensure that this production is done efficiently, transparently and sustainably, consistent with international best practice,” he assured.

Komolafe said that as the country looked to the future, the Commission would continue to prioritise measures to sustain Nigeria’s upstream rebound, achieve 2.5 million BOPD by 2027, “strengthen gas monetisation, protect our energy infrastructure, and uphold the principles of transparency, accountability, and efficiency that define our regulatory mandate.”