The world is anxious and now awaits the result of perhaps the ‘most contentious’ presidential election in the United States in recent history.
On Tuesday, November 5, millions of Americans across the US cast their votes to decide the fate of Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, and Vice President Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party, who are vying to succeed Joe Biden as the next President of the United States.
While casting his vote in Florida on Tuesday, Trump said he was “confident,” while Harris, who sent her own ballot by mail, urged people to “get out and vote.”
She’s one of 82 million people who voted before Election Day, and polls show the race for the White House is neck and neck, both nationally and in key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Michigan. Americans are also picking members of the US Congress, and some states are voting on abortion rights.
Source: Associated Press
When Results Will be Official
The results of the election will not be official until votes are counted and verified, which could take days to fully complete in some instances.
In the battleground states, the process will be highly scrutinised. Trump is said to be questioning the trustworthiness of many of their voting processes. Recall that he challenged the results of many of their votes in court in 2020.
The winners of most presidential elections this century became clear pretty quickly—Obama’s 2008 and 2012 victories were both announced before midnight Eastern time on polling day; Donald Trump won by 03:00 Eastern time the next morning in 2016, and George W. Bush’s re-election was confirmed the day after the election in 2004.
But there are two notable exceptions. It took nearly four days after polls closed on 3 November 2020 for US TV networks to declare Joe Biden the winner over Donald Trump, after the result in Pennsylvania became clear.
In 2000, George W. Bush and Al Gore’s campaigns went to war over a tight contest in Florida. The US Supreme Court voted to end the state’s recount process, keeping Bush in place as the winner. Gore conceded on 13 December, 36 days after the election.
The first polls were supposed to close on Tuesday at 18:00 EST (23:00 GMT), but counting votes will extend far beyond then. In most cases, it can take weeks to reach an official tally, partly because of state rules.
Counting, too, varies from location to location and depends on the equipment used. Some counties “feed” ballots into scanners, while others may use touch-screen systems or ballot-marking devices to record votes.
Disruptions, legal challenges or complications around provisional ballots can slow the counting.
Each state has its own procedure for recounts and what can trigger them.
In the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Michigan, recounts automatically occur when the numbers of votes received by each candidate are especially close.
When to expect results in battleground states Georgia counts fast (but watch the vote margin)
North Carolina counts fast (with new rules) Pennsylvania is likely to take longer than election night
Michigan could be faster than in the past
Wisconsin is likely to finish most counting WednesdayArizona could take daysNevada could take days
Key issues that may determine victory in Swing states
In all the seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, there are key issues that the rival candidates have attempted to woo voters.
Wisconsin: Healthcare
Up until 2016, Wisconsin had been a reliably blue state for decades, but Trump was able to spring a surprise, beating Hillary Clinton by wooing mostly white, working-class voters who were unhappy about wages, poverty and rising healthcare costs.
Four years later, Biden was able to bring the state back into the Democratic Party’s fold.
This time, multiple opinion polls have suggested that healthcare is the most pressing issue for voters, in a state that has been badly affected by the country’s opioid crisis.
Harris on healthcare
Harris has promised to lower the cost of pharmaceutical drugs, strengthen the Affordable Care Act, and lower healthcare premiums. If elected, she will also work with states to cancel medical debt for more people.
Trump on healthcare
On the other hand, Trump said he is “looking at alternatives” to the Affordable Care Act, which he calls too expensive.
Nevada: Unemployment
While Nevada has the fewest Electoral College votes – six – among the swing states, they could still be crucial in such a close race.
Nevada suffers from the highest unemployment rate among all US states – only Washington, DC has a higher joblessness rate – as well as high costs of living.
Harris on unemployment
Harris has promised to review which federal jobs require a college degree if elected president.
“We need to get in front of this idea that only high-skilled jobs require college degrees,” Harris said at a rally in October, promising she would tackle this on “day one” of her presidency.
Trump on unemployment
At his October rally in Nevada, Trump promised to tackle inflation, but in a more recent rally this month, did not address the issue of unemployment.
North Carolina: Abortion
North Carolina is the only one of this year’s swing states to have been won by Trump in 2020 and although Harris does not necessarily need to win North Carolina, any scenario in which she does will make her path to 270 a lot easier.
Trump can also get to 270 without North Carolina but doing so will be very difficult.
Abortion is a key issue in the state, according to polls. The state reduced the legal limit for abortions from 20 weeks of pregnancy to just 12 weeks in 2023 after the US Supreme Court overturned the landmark 1973 Roe v Wade court ruling granting the right to abortion.
The ruling left the issue largely unresolved and turned the current election into a referendum on fundamental rights for women.
Democrats are hoping that the issue of abortion will motivate white women, who have historically favoured Republicans and 60 percent of whom voted for Trump in 2020, to now vote for Harris instead.
Harris on abortion
The vice president, hoping to become the first female president in the country’s history, has said she will prevent a national abortion ban from becoming law and will sign any bill passed by Congress that restores the legality of abortion nationwide.
Trump on abortion
Meanwhile, Trump has said abortion laws are for individual states to decide and said he will not sign a national abortion ban. However, he has not signalled that he would oppose states – like North Carolina – adopting restrictive measures against reproductive rights.
Pennsylvania: Fracking
President Joe Biden’s home state of Pennsylvania offers 19 Electoral College votes, the most among battleground states – and could prove to be the state that determines who wins the election.
In recent days, Harris has gained ground there, according to Democratic strategist Anish Mohanty. “Things have changed in this election over the last few days and the vice president has pulled off her campaign effectively,” Mohanty told Al Jazeera shortly after polls opened on the East Coast. Mohanty alluded to racist remarks against Puerto Rico by a comedian at a Trump rally recently as a turning point for the campaign: Pennsylvania is home to more than 480,000 Puerto Ricans.
But in addition to concerns over political divisiveness, immigration, the state of the economy and abortion, Pennsylvanians are concerned about an issue specific to their state: Fracking, a form of oil and gas production that environmentalists say is bad for the environment but which is the source of a huge number of jobs around the state. The practice causes earth tremors and has a high environmental cost since the procedure consumes large amounts of water, in addition to releasing methane, a greenhouse gas.
An October poll found that the state’s residents are divided on fracking: 58 percent backed it, while 42 percent opposed it.
Harris on fracking
Harris famously opposed fracking when she ran for president four years ago but in late July, her campaign officials confirmed that she will not seek to ban fracking if elected.
Harris wrapped up her campaign with a final, glitzy event in Philadelphia, where iconic talk show host Oprah Winfrey introduced her. The vice president called on “everyone” in Pennsylvania to vote. “You are going to make the difference in this election,” she told her supporters.
Trump on fracking
Meanwhile, Trump supports fracking and has said he will once again withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and will also remove environmental regulations, such as restrictions on fossil fuel production, deemed “burdensome”. He had withdrawn from the Paris pact during his first term – President Joe Biden had recommitted the US to the agreement when he came to power.
Michigan: Israel’s war on Gaza
The state of Michigan was a key stop in Vice President Harris’s last stretch of campaigning. Harris wanted to make a last-ditch effort to win over the continent’s largest Arab-American community that has been angered by the Biden-Harris administration’s unequivocal support for Israel in its war on Gaza.
While pre-poll numbers show Harris with a slender lead in the state, Trump will hope that his “Muslim supporters” will help him win in Michigan.
More than 100,000 uncommitted voters in the state have declared that they will not endorse Harris or Trump and some may opt for the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, who has pledged to press for a ceasefire and halt weapons sales to Israel.
Harris on Gaza
While Harris has promised to work towards ending the war in Gaza, “allow Palestinians to realise their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination”, she has also backed Israel’s “right to defend itself” and has rejected an arms embargo on the US ally in the Middle East.
Trump on Gaza
Trump has not revealed specific details about what he would do on the issue of Gaza. However, during a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in July, Trump urged the Israeli leader to “get his victory” over Hamas. He said the killings in Gaza had to stop but that Netanyahu “knows what he’s doing”.
That rhetoric is in line with Trump’s actions during his first run as president. His government recognised the disputed city of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, prompting anger among Palestinians. He negotiated “normalisation” deals between Israel and several Arab nations under the Abraham Accords and he pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, which Israel also opposed.
However, he has also argued that he will push for peace – and get it.
Georgia: Cost of living
Traditionally a Republican stronghold, this southern state went Democratic in 2020 – but only just. The votes in Georgia were counted three times, including once by hand, but that did not stop Trump from controversially attempting to overturn the results.
This time, perceptions about the state of the economy could determine how Georgia votes. A September poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with the UK newspaper, The Telegraph, found that 41 percent of Georgia’s voters viewed the economy as the single biggest issue for them.
How do both candidates propose to ease the burden of inflation – which is not yet down to pre-COVID-19 levels?
Harris on cost of living
Harris has promised to cut taxes for “more than 100 million working and middle-class Americans” by restoring Child Tax Credits and Earned Income Tax Credits. She has also pledged to increase the Long-Term Capital Gains Tax from 20 percent to 28 percent and the corporate tax rate from 21 percent to 28 percent to pay for this.
To help lower the cost of living, the vice president has proposed a federal ban on price gouging on food and groceries.
Trump on cost of living
Trump has pledged to “end inflation” and significantly increase the Child Tax Credit while cutting government spending and bringing down the corporate tax rate to 15 percent.
Arizona: Immigration
Since 1952, Arizona has voted Republican in all but one election (1996) before Joe Biden flipped it in 2020 for the Democrats.
This time, polls show Trump leading marginally.
Arizona is a border state, and many polls have shown immigration and border control as key issues for many of its residents. In a May poll by CBS News, for instance, 52 percent of the respondents said recently arrived immigrants from Mexico had worsened living conditions for them.
Harris on immigration
Vice President Harris believes the US immigration system is “broken” and needs “comprehensive reform.” While she has pledged support for a border security bill that would increase detection technology to intercept drugs and has promised to add 1,500 border security agents, Harris has also promised an “earned pathway to citizenship” and an increase in employment-based and family visas.
Trump on immigration
Overall, Trump blames immigrants for rising housing, education and healthcare costs.
Trump’s plans include deporting millions of undocumented migrants by force, sealing the border to stop the “migrant invasion” by using the military on the US-Mexico border and constructing detention facilities.
The former president wants to reinstate the “Remain in Mexico” policy, which requires asylum seekers to stay in Mexico until their immigration cases have been resolved. Trump also wants to end birthright citizenship for children born to undocumented parents.
The Republican candidate wants to impose ideological screening of immigrants but has proposed automatic green cards for foreign graduates of US universities.
