US-Iran Conflict: BMI Forecasts Extra N6.8trn Oil Revenue Windfall For Nigeria

Nigeria stands to gain an additional N6.8 trillion in oil revenue in 2026 as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran push global crude prices higher, according to BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, in its latest Sub-Saharan Africa market assessment for April 2026.
The research firm revised its Brent crude price projection upward to an average of $78 per barrel for the year, from a pre-conflict estimate of $67 per barrel — a $11 per barrel differential that BMI says will translate into a substantial fiscal windfall for Africa’s largest oil producer.
“Higher Brent crude prices, now expected to average USD78.0/bbl versus USD67.0/bbl pre-conflict, should deliver a fiscal windfall of about NGN6.8trn, or just over 1% of GDP,” BMI stated.
Alongside the revenue projection, BMI raised Nigeria’s real GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 4.3% to 4.4%, citing the improved fiscal position and Nigeria’s relative insulation from the broader economic disruptions triggered by the Middle East conflict compared to other Sub-Saharan African economies.
Nigeria, which relies on crude oil for roughly 90% of its foreign exchange earnings and over 50% of government revenues according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), is structurally positioned to benefit from sustained price increases in global oil markets.
BMI identified the removal of Nigeria’s longstanding fuel subsidy as the central mechanism through which global price movements are now feeding directly into government revenues. The subsidy, which cost the federal government an estimated N4.2 trillion in 2022 alone before its abolition in May 2023 under President Bola Tinubu, had historically shielded consumers from price volatility while draining public finances.
“The removal of the longstanding fuel subsidy now means that domestic prices are exposed to international benchmarks,” BMI noted, adding that higher oil prices are directly translating into increased earnings for the government as a result.
The pass-through to domestic fuel costs has, however, been significant. Petrol prices in Nigeria have risen by over 50% since the escalation of the Middle East conflict, deepening cost-of-living pressures on households already grappling with elevated inflation.
BMI acknowledged that the fuel price surge has intensified inflationary concerns but maintained that the impact is expected to be temporary and manageable under current macroeconomic conditions. A relatively stronger naira — which has recovered ground following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) exchange rate reforms — is helping to moderate imported inflation pressures, BMI said.
Nigeria’s headline inflation stood at 24.23% in March 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), down from a peak of 34.8% in December 2024, reflecting the cumulative effect of tight monetary policy and the naira’s partial stabilisation.
Oil prices surged last Thursday as Iran intensified attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East, rattling energy markets and amplifying supply risk premiums. After nearly two months of hostilities, the United States, Israel and Iran have failed to reach a ceasefire agreement despite mediation efforts brokered with the help of Pakistan and backed by China.
The conflict has injected fresh volatility into global commodity markets, with energy analysts warning that a further escalation could push Brent crude beyond $85 per barrel — a scenario that would compound both Nigeria’s revenue gains and its domestic fuel price pressures.
Beyond the oil price windfall, BMI’s report highlighted that ongoing domestic reforms — including the CBN’s monetary tightening cycle, the unification of the foreign exchange market, and efforts to boost non-oil revenue — are collectively expected to support government revenues and improve macroeconomic stability in the medium term.
Nigeria pumped an average of 1.48 million barrels of crude oil per day in February 2026, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, still below its OPEC quota of approximately 1.58 million bpd. Analysts say closing that production gap, alongside sustained price gains, could push the fiscal windfall even higher than BMI’s current estimate.