When Will Nigeria Have Accurate Out-of-School Data?

Nigeria is home to one of the world’s largest populations of out-of-school children, yet the exact number remains uncertain.

While the country is widely regarded as having one of the largest populations of out-of-school children in the world, there is still no universally accepted figure showing exactly how many children are excluded from education.

Different estimates from international organisations, development partners and government agencies have produced varying numbers over the years.

UNICEF, one of the most frequently cited sources, has at different times estimated that between 10 million and 18 million Nigerian children are out of school, depending on the age groups and education levels included in the calculations.

The UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) and the World Bank, which use internationally standardised methodologies, have placed the number of primary school-age children out of school at approximately 9.1 million.

Within Nigeria, government officials often reference more than 10 million out-of-school children, while some studies that include adolescents and children who have never enrolled in school suggest the figure may be considerably higher.

These differences are not necessarily contradictory. Rather, they reflect variations in definitions, methodologies and data collection periods.

However, they also show a longstanding challenge where the country lacks a single, reliable system capable of providing an exact picture of the crisis.

The absence of accurate data has significant implications. Without knowing precisely who is out of school, where they live and why they are excluded, policymakers often struggle to design targeted interventions, allocate resources efficiently and measure progress over time.

The challenge is particularly complex in a country as large and diverse as Nigeria. Factors such as poverty, insecurity, displacement, migration, nomadic lifestyles, cultural practices and rapid population growth continue to affect school attendance differently across regions.

Recently, the Federal Ministry of Education and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) have begun a collaboration aimed at improving the quality and reliability of education data, particularly on out-of-school children.

The initiative seeks to leverage the Nigeria Education Data Infrastructure (NEDI), the Digital National Education Management Information System (D-NEMIS) and nationwide household surveys to establish a more credible baseline for education planning and policy implementation.

The effort comes at a time when Nigeria is under increasing pressure to improve school enrolment, reduce learning poverty and meet commitments under Sustainable Development Goal Four, which focuses on inclusive and equitable quality education.

Speaking through his official X account following a meeting with the Statistician-General of the Federation and Chief Executive Officer of the National Bureau of Statistics, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, Minister of Education Dr Tunji Alausa outlined plans to strengthen collaboration between both institutions on education data collection and utilisation.

According to the minister, discussions centred on how data generated through the Nigeria Education Data Infrastructure and D-NEMIS can be better deployed to support planning, monitoring and evidence-based decision-making.

D-NEMIS represents a departure from traditional methods of collecting education statistics. The platform digitises the Annual School Census process, which was previously conducted manually, and captures information from schools across states, local government areas and wards.

The system records data on public and private schools from primary to secondary levels, including enrolment figures, teacher numbers, classroom availability, laboratories, water and sanitation facilities and other infrastructure indicators.

Minister of Education, Dr Tunji Alausa, has disclosed that the Federal Ministry of Education is collaborating with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) to strengthen education data management and generate more accurate figures on out-of-school children across the country.

Alausa said he met with the Statistician-General to discuss how education data generated through the Nigeria Education Data Infrastructure (NEDI) and its Digital National Education Management Information System (D-NEMIS) can be utilised for national planning and policy implementation.

According to the minister, D-NEMIS has digitised the Annual School Census, which was previously conducted manually.

“Our D-NEMIS platform has digitised the Annual School Census (ASC), which was previously done manually. D-NEMIS collects school-level data across all states and wards, including the number of public and private schools, teachers, classrooms, WaSH facilities, laboratories and more,” he said.

Alausa described the development as a major step towards data-driven governance in the education sector.

“Education is the backbone of any society. For the first time, the Federal Ministry of Education now has robust education data for evidence-based decision making,” he stated.

He also explained that the collaboration aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s One Government Approach and will enable NBS to leverage education data to support national planning, policy formulation, programme implementation and outcome monitoring.

The minister also revealed that discussions focused on improving the methodology for collecting out-of-school children (OOSC) data, noting that a household survey model previously used in Kaduna State was considered as one of the viable options.

“Our discussions also touched on the utilisation of more accurate tools to collect out-of-school children data.

“Multiple methods and various available options were discussed, one being a general household survey that includes data mapping. This method was conducted in Kaduna State to verify the number of out-of-school children in the state,” he said.

He announced that NBS and the Ministry of Education would work together to conduct a nationwide household survey covering all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

“NBS will work with the Ministry of Education to conduct a general household survey to map OOSC data in all the 36 states and the FCT. This survey will provide Nigeria with accurate numbers of the out-of-school children population,” Alausa said.

To support the initiative, the minister disclosed that NBS has assigned eight statisticians to work directly with the NEDI team.

“As part of this collaboration, the NBS has deployed eight statisticians to work with our NEDI team to aggregate, disaggregate and analyse data and find more ways to put the data to good use,” he noted.

Emphasising the importance of reliable data in governance, Alausa said

it was a new day at the Federal Ministry of Education it start to use evidence-based governance to improve our education outcomes.