1.5m Jobs at Risk As CETA Bill Threatens Beverage Value Chain – Report 

About 1.5 million jobs directly or indirectly dependent on Nigeria’s beverage sector could be at risk under the proposed amendment to the Customs, Excise and Tariff Amendment (CETA) Bill, ThinkBusiness Africa has warned.

The policy and investor-relations firm raised the concern in a new policy report titled ‘Nigeria’s CETA Bill, Fiscal Policy, and Health Outcomes’ released on Tuesday.

The report examines the CETA amendment bill passed by the Senate at third reading on June 4, 2026, and awaiting consideration by the House of Representatives.

The bill seeks to replace the current N10-per-litre excise duty on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) with a levy linked to retail prices, at a rate to be determined by the Minister of Finance.

ThinkBusiness Africa said the shift represents a significant increase in the tax burden on beverages and could raise retail prices and production costs across the wider value chain, including manufacturing, agriculture, sugar supply, packaging, logistics, transportation, distribution and retail.

The firm cited an estimate by the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) that approximately 1.5 million jobs depend on the beverage sector.

It also referenced data from the National Sugar Development Council (NSDC) showing total sugar consumption fell from about 1.72 million tonnes in 2022 to 1.44 million tonnes in 2023, while domestic production declined from 46,479 tonnes to 30,053 tonnes over the same period.

ThinkBusiness Africa stressed that the declines cannot be attributed solely to the existing SSB levy, highlighting broader pressures on the value chain.

The report further cited modelling by the Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa, referenced in a MAN submission, which estimated that a N130-per-litre tax scenario could raise retail prices by about 39 per cent and reduce annual per-capita consumption by 29 per cent.

The firm warned that the timing of the reform is challenging, given high inflation, elevated production costs, foreign-exchange pressures and weakened household purchasing power.

It called for a broader impact assessment covering consumer prices, production, employment, investment, informal-market activity and government revenue, alongside public health effects, before implementation.

It also urged policymakers to complement fiscal measures with non-tax interventions such as public health education, nutrition awareness, physical activity programmes and improved access to primary healthcare.

In June, 2926, MAN called on the federal government, through the Ministry of Finance, to step down the proposed Customs and Excise Tariff Amendment (CETA) Bill 2025, to avoid parallel excise frameworks and ensure fiscal coherence.

The director general of MAN, Segun Ajayi-Kadir urged the federal government to adopt a coordinated, predictable, and evidence-based excise framework that aligns with industrial policy goals.

He raised major concern over what he termed as “the increasing fragmentation of Nigeria’s fiscal landscape, where overlapping levies are introduced without adequate coordination or assessment of cumulative economic impact.”

Ajayi-Kadir pointed out that the non-alcoholic drink (NAD) sector remains one of the most resilient pillars of Nigeria’s manufacturing base, accounting for approximately 33 per cent of manufacturing output and sustaining over 1.5 million direct and indirect jobs across production, logistics, agriculture, retail, and MSMEs.

The MAN DG said despite severe macroeconomic headwinds, including inflation, foreign exchange scarcity, and rising energy costs, the sector continues to contribute significantly to government revenue.