2023: Of SCP’s Prediction Of Impending Flood, Food Shortage, National Impact

The 2023 Seasonal Climate Predictions (SCP), by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET) has again, confirmed the fears of most Nigerians as it has revealed another impending flooding, which will lead to devastating effect on farming and attendant food shortage.

Speaking at the presentation of the report, the director-general of NiMET,  Prof. Mansur Matazu, while confirming the fear of most Nigerians, said: 

“Flooding is a natural event and with the increase in climate change activities we are going to see more floods. Because climate change is due to increasing temperature. So, increased temperature means the atmosphere will be more pregnant to contain more water in the form of a water depot. And that means more rain and the rain will come in high intensity, but short duration. So the length of the season has been reducing, but the intensity and amount of the rain is increasing. So that gives more volume of water within a limited time and that’s what now triggers the flash floods after rainfall in cities and the riverine floods, leading to overflowing of rivers, especially during July to September.”

He further stated that “So, far in the south, generally speaking time around April, May, June, is normally their flash flood season because the season may have commenced. But we are working with National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) nd then national analytical services. They also complement our effort by providing flood forecasts around March and April.”

For farmers and those in the Agricultural sector, NiMet said: “The length of the growing season in most places in the country is likely to be near the long-term average, except for some states, like Katsina, Jigawa, and Kano, where shorter than the long-term average length of the growing season is anticipated.

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“The season is expected to range from 84 to 283 days. Abuja and surrounding states are expected to witness between 170 and 230 days.”

Also, the minister of Aviation, while speaking on ways of mitigating the impact of the prediction, said one of the effective ways of mitigating climate-induced disasters is the provision of early warning services. 

The minister noted that the call for early warning and action has been amplified by the recent flood of 2022 across several states in Nigeria. 

He emphasized that the destruction of over 569,000 Hectares of farmland, deaths of over 600 people and displacement of over 1.3 million persons in 34 out of the 36 states of the Federation are huge losses that must be prevented from reoccurring. 

According to him, “You would recall, consequent on the 2022 flood disaster, President Muhammadu Buhari ordered the constitution of the Presidential Steering Committee and Technical Working Group on the Prevention of the Flood disaster in Nigeria. While this committee and working group finalize on their work, NiMet, once again is ready to continue in its drive for the provision of accurate, timely, reliable, and actionable weather and climate prediction in Nigeria. 

“Now that early warning has been provided, I encourage us all to embrace early action for maximum benefits and sustainable national socio-economic development. By doing so, collectively we would have stayed through to the theme of this event: “Strengthening Climate Risk Early Warning Services for Improved Food Security and Disaster Risk Reduction in Nigeria”.

Also, the permanent secretary, Federal Ministry of Aviation, Dr. Emmanuel Meribole, reiterated that one of the effective ways of mitigating against the negative impact of flood events is the availability of early warnings.

He said: “The relevance and critical importance of the products and services emanating from NiMet cannot be overemphasized. Over the years, nation building and sustainable development are closely linked to the vagaries of weather and climate, including how well nations take the advantage of the weather and climate information available to them.

“The level of response by people and critical actors in the weather and climate value-chain is key to maximizing the benefit of Early Warnings to reduce risks and impacts of weather-related disasters”.

He added that the Seasonal Climate Prediction is one of NiMet’s flagship products, an invaluable early warning tool that has provided stakeholders with relevant climate smart knowledge and information that will help reduce the risk of weather and climate change impacts in various weather-sensitive sectors of the economy and maximize the opportunities provided by the information contained in the product. 

He noted that the SCP has also helped increase and improve the level of preparedness by federal and state emergency management agencies, complement the flood prediction by Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA), and served as an advisory tool for many stakeholders at the federal, state and local government levels.

While expressing readiness for interventions, the director-general of the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), said: “It is on record that weather and climatic elements impact heavily on and play a vital role in all forms of human activities and across socio-economic sectors. 

“I am glad to say that hydro-meteorological information from NiMet has continued to play a vital role in disaster preparedness, response and mitigation plans of NEMA. The SCP has over the years become a veritable tool that enables NEMA to conduct expert analysis of disaster risk implications and produce disaster early warning messages for delivery to emergency responders to support the protection of lives, critical national assets and the entire cultural landscape in Nigeria. 

“The NEMA-NiMet partnership in disaster risk management and the building of national resilience has continue to grow from strength to strength. I look forward to bringing together experts from NIMeT and other relevant agencies in one roof to analyze the disaster risk implication of the SCP and develop necessary advisories including risk mapping to guide all NEMA partners to mitigate disaster losses across the nation. I make bold to say that the negative impacts of the annually recurring flood disaster in Nigeria, could have been more devastating without the early warning information developed out of the NiMet SCP and downscaled to the various end-user agencies and the general public.