Nigeria’s political atmosphere is already tense in the buildup to the 2023 general election. Like cannons overcharged with double cracks, key political actors and parties have started plying their trade, engaging in intensive politicking to garner votes from the electorate.
This time around, the electioneering process appears tougher. It is a clear departure from many previous elections that were usually a two-horse race between the ruling party and the major opposition party.
For instance, there are notably four prominent contenders in the presidential race. They include the candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Ahmed Tinubu; People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar; New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), Rabiu Kwankwaso, and Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi.
The current unsavoury state of affairs in the nation and the need to rescue it from further degeneration has attracted keen attention to the criteria for choosing who the next president becomes. Top on the list of issues that a new helmsman of the country is expected to tackle are insecurity, economy, education and ethnic/religious tensions.
For Nigerians going to vote in February 2023, candidates’ calibre and antecedents matter more than party affiliations, though the party plays a big part in the scheme of things. How are the candidates poised for the task at hand? Below are the four major candidates and their chances so far
Bola Ahmed Tinubu
The governing APC candidate, Tinubu, is a well-steeped politician who is banking on the power of incumbency to clinch the majority of votes in the elections. His economic scorecard is based on having governed Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial capital, for eight years between 1999 and 2007. He had been the national leader of the APC and its leader in the South West due to the influence he has been wielding since the return of democracy in 1999.
Because of his wide political network built from years of taking deliberate steps to form alliances with political leaders in all the regions, governors of northern states were instrumental to his emergence as the presidential flagbearer, even though some of the APC governors did not support him because of their own ambitions.
Tinubu who recently met with the leadership of Nigerian students in tertiary institutions said he did so as a way of seeking a solution to the current ongoing strike by University lecturers which has paralysed learning and kept students out of school for more than five months now.
As a result of the sensitive issue of ethnic/religious friction in the country, Tinubu’s choice of a running mate from the North, since he is from the South, created an expected balance on the ticket. But the fact that his running mate is a Muslim just like him has raised dusts in many quarters.
As a Southern Muslim, Tuinubu is receiving serious bashing from Nigerian Christian leaders for picking another Muslim from the North as his running mate. While many believe this may work against him in the South, there are pundits who believe that fielding a Muslim-Muslim ticket will serve his electoral interest better in conservative northern states. The thinking is that Tinubu’s choice of a running mate will influence the support of the average voters in these conservative Muslim states in his favour, as the Muslim population will want one of their own to represent them as the vice president.
But with the backlash against his choice of Shettima, there are concerns within the APC that the majority of Christians may not vote for him both in the North Central and in the Southern part of the country.
However, Tinubu has insisted that competence over religion and vote for the candidate that will address the security and economic challenges, irrespective of their regions and religions. His supporters have also argued that if governance is faith-based Nigerians would not have been groaning under the Buhari administration, with Yemi Osinbajo, a Pastor, as vice president.
Atiku Abubakar
As a former Vice President of the country from 1999 – 2007, Atiku’s foray into politics began at a young age in the early 80’s. Since then, he has continued to display an uninhibited aspiration to lead Nigeria since he first contested for the presidency in 1993. His plans to tackle insecurity is a blend of federal and state interventions, an idea that will activate state policing contrary to the current situation where all is left in the hands of the federal government, a policy that has proven woefully ineffective so far.
His passion for education is largely portrayed by his huge investment in building a private world-class University that runs uninterrupted and not starved of required funds for research. In 2020, he recommended that to immediately and drastically bring down youth unemployment, every family in Nigeria with at least one school age child, and earning less than $800 per annum should receive a monthly stipend of 5000 Naira from the government via their BVN and NIN on the condition that they verifiably keep their children in school.
Atiku’s ticket is also well balanced along the considerations for fair ethnic/religious representation, as his deputy is from the south and a practicing Christian.
During his time as Vice President, Atiku headed the best star-studded economic team in the history of the country and he led the telecommunication transformation, which has created many jobs and opened up the economy for increased earnings and development opportunities.
His investments in the private sector have also created over 10,000 jobs helping to absorb young people with talents and engaging them productively.
He has on numerous occasions expressed his desire to empower youths not only in the private sector, but also in governance.
As an investor in agriculture, his views on Food security as a vital part of national security has prompted his advocacy for a number of policies and government interventions, which are capable of protecting and strengthening the sector.
Diversification from oil has always been a promise from past governments, however, the political will to follow through has been lacking, Atiku promises to make that transition realistic if he wins, as he recently stated his desire to rejuvenate relegated sectors like agriculture and coal production.
On record, he said that coal would have been back since when he was VP, having advocated for decentralization of power generation and transmission but he was not in charge. “If I am in charge, coal will come back to life,” he once said.
Starting in mid-August, European Union countries will stop importing coal from Russia, which means they’ll have to find alternative suppliers. Already, they are turning to South Africa.
Criticised by the APC for his call to privatise Nigeria’s national oil company and ending command and control policies, Atiku maintained that government should have no hands in businesses that should be left to the private sector, it was therefore an unpredictable volte face seeing the ruling party, on Tuesday 19, July 2023 and in the twilight of their administration setting the behemoth free and declaring it a limited liability company.
For his supporters, there is a congruence of opinion that Atiku has an edge in terms of experience as a former vice president. He knows the national turf better and understands the real workings of government at that level. Others are running for the first time and are not well-known outside their local domains and may find a popular and experienced candidate hard to beat.
Rabiu Kwankwaso
A former governor of Kano State from 1999 to 2003 and 2011 to 2015, Kwankwaso took many by surprise when he recently left the PDP again to an unknown party NNPP, just as many were trying to decipher his next move, he threw his hat into the ring and declared his interest to contest the presidential elections.
With a huge number of followers in Kano, he is a force to reckon with in his state, but the same cannot be said of his influence outside the state.
Kwankwaso has demonstrated in the past his passion for education and was instrumental in assisting many youths from his state to attain higher qualitative education on state funded scholarships abroad.
His ticket is also well-balanced with a VP pick of south extraction and a practicing Christian, although with no known record in politics.
On tackling insecurity, Kwankwaso as a former Minister of Defence, who never thought insecurity would worsen to the present level, feels the troops lack motivation, adequate training and retraining programmes as well as needed equipment that must be superior to what bandits and terrorists brandish.
On the economy, Kwankwaso has not presented any elaborate plans, but promises to put in place better economic policies that can lift the nation to a higher pedestal, if voted in as president.
Peter Obi
A great communicator and businessman but mostly referring to himself as a trader, Peter Obi was a two-term governor of Anambra State for 8 years, his re-emergence on the political scene was in 2019 when he was picked by Atiku, who he defers to as leader and elder brother, as running mate in the presidential elections, which they both lost to the incumbent President Buhari administration.
The decision of PDP to throw open the ticket as against a zoning arrangement, gave him the reluctant chance to vie for the presidency, he however resigned from the party few days to the presidential primary to pursue his interest on the platform of the Labour Party.
He too, like most of the front-runners, has a balanced ethnic/religious ticket with a Muslim running mate from the north.
The height of his achievements in the education sector is taking Anambra from 26th position in WAEC/NECO to 1st position as governor.
His strongest selling point is his philosophy of conservatism in government spending, he promises to cut down on spending to conserve funds.
He is often hailed for not borrowing during his time as governor and rather saving funds for the State, although that philosophy is often criticised as antithetical to development, he defends it by saying he would borrow only for production as president.
He plans to tackle insecurity in two ways, jobs creation and equipping the military, he is also big on state policing to help stem insecurity, citing antecedents from his time as governor where he supported security apparatuses at the community level.
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