2026 World Cup: Iran’s Withdrawal Opens Door For Iraq, UAE As Potential Replacements

The 2026 World Cup was thrown into turmoil after Iran officially withdrew from the tournament, citing the assassination of its Supreme Leader by US-Israeli forces and the subsequent escalation of geopolitical tensions.

The decision has left a vacancy in Group G and forced football’s world governing body, FIFA, to initiate emergency contingency plans, with Iraq and the United Arab Emirates emerging as the leading candidates to step in.

Iranian Sports Minister Ahmad Donyamali confirmed the nation’s boycott in a televised statement on Wednesday, declaring, “Considering that this corrupt regime (the U.S.) assassinated our leader, we cannot participate in the World Cup under any circumstances”. This follows earlier hints of a potential pullout by Mehdi Taj, the president of Iran’s football federation, who stated, “What is certain is that after this attack, we cannot be expected to look forward to the World Cup with hope”.

The development contradicts recent assurances from FIFA President Gianni Infantino, who had claimed that US President Donald Trump told him the Iranian team would be welcome on American soil

Iran had qualified for the expanded 48-team tournament by topping their group in the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) and was drawn in Group G, scheduled to face Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand, with matches planned for Los Angeles and Seattle.

According to FIFA’s regulations for the 2026 World Cup, the organisation has the authority to handle such a situation at its sole discretion. Article 6.5 of the regulations states that, in the event of a withdrawal due to force majeure, the authorised FIFA organising body “shall decide on the matter at its sole discretion and take whatever action is deemed necessary”. Crucially, Article 6.7 adds that “FIFA may decide to replace the Participating Member Association in question with another association.”

While FIFA has not yet made an official announcement, the governing body is expected to maintain the regional allocation of slots by selecting a replacement from the Asian Football Confederation. This puts two nations in the spotlight: Iraq and the UAE.

The most likely path to a resolution hinges on the outcome of the ongoing intercontinental play-offs.
Iraq is scheduled to compete in Intercontinental Playoff B on March 31, in Monterrey, Mexico, where they will face the winner of the Bolivia vs Suriname match for a place in the World Cup. If Iraq fails to win that match, they would become the logical choice to replace Iran. They were the AFC team that advanced the farthest in the qualifying process without securing an automatic berth. In this scenario, Iraq would be inserted directly into Group G

If Iraq wins their play-off and qualifies on their own merit, the door opens for the United Arab Emirates. The UAE finished third in their third-round qualifying group and ultimately lost to Iraq in the fifth round of Asian qualifying

As the highest-ranked non-qualified team from the AFC, they would be the prime candidate to take Iran’s spot in the World Cup finals.

A third, more complex scenario could unfold if FIFA acts before the March 31 play-off. The governing body could, in theory, move Iraq directly into Group G and elevate the UAE to take Iraq’s place in the intercontinental play-off. However, with the play-off just weeks away, time is extremely tight for such a maneuver.