Milan Vs Inter: Who Will Win The Key Match Of Round 33?

Inter Milan look destined to win back the scudetto in this season’s Serie A. In doing so, they will join Juventus as the only two clubs in the history of the league to have reached at least 20 titles, a momentous occasion for the Nerazzurri.

As part of their end-of-season run-in, Inter Milan will face their old rivals AC Milan, in one of the toughest matches they have left in this campaign. For Stefano Pioli’s team, this match will not be a walk in the park either, since all the bookmakers listed at UKClubSport have Inter as the match favourites for the victory at the San Siro.

Will Inter Milan get maximum points in the bag, or will AC Milan earn some revenge, having suffered a heavy defeat against Inter earlier in this campaign? Here we look ahead to this heavyweight Serie A clash on April 22nd, 2024.

The Title Race

After 31 rounds of league action, Inter Milan held a 14-point lead at the top of the table over AC Milan. So even if there was a slip-up by Inter in this Milan derby match, it is not likely going to stop the title ending up in their hands.

With a fourteen-point gap and only seven matches to play, it would take a massive collapse for them not to claim the scudetto. As for AC Milan, they are comfortably heading towards a top-four finish and are red-hot favourites to finish as runners-up.

Special Derby Day

Even without anything immediately important hanging on the match, the Milan derby is still one of the special fixtures in world football. Narrowing the focus down on this special game, out of the context of the league title, it is one to look forward to.

It’s known as the “Derby della Madonnina” with the first ever encounter played in 1909, which AC Milan won. There have been 179 Serie A Milan derby matches played, with Inter ahead 69-54 on wins, with 56 drawn matches.

This Season’s Meeting

The two clubs met on September 16th and it was all one-way traffic from Inter Milan. Henrikh Mkhitaryan put Inter ahead in the fifth minute and they were 2-0 up at the halftime break. AC Milan did score the first goal of the second half but went on to concede three more in a heavy 5-1 reversal.

Current Head-To-Head Form

Inter Milan have had the upper hand over their rivals in the last few seasons, without question. In all competitions, AC Milan have claimed just three victories in their last fifteen matches against Inter, losing ten. In just Serie A derby matches, things are a little tighter, with Inter claiming a W3 D1 L2 record in their last six against the Rossoneri.

Looking for Trends

Both teams have scored in just two of the last eight meetings in all competitions. There had been four consecutive Milan derby matches in which both teams had failed to score before this season’s earlier league meeting broke the trend.

So with Inter Milan looking the stronger of the two clubs at the moment, a victory with a clean sheet isn’t out of the question. Adding some weight to that is the brilliant defensive record that In Milan has earned in this season’s top flight.

After 31 matches, Inter had conceded just 15 goals and 62% of their home matches had been won with a clean sheet. It’s a phenomenal defensive record, conceding an average of just 0.50 per match.

For context, second-placed AC Milan at the same stage had conceded 34 goals, more than double the amount Inter had. Inter Milan also have far superior scoring power to that of AC, outscoring their big rivals 75-60 in this season’s top flight.

Current Form

There’s another big question mark over AC Milan’s chance as well, having lost their two matches played this season against other current top-three sides, winning only one of four against top-four sides.

Inter Milan in contrast have had no problem in seeing off stronger opinion, taking a W3 D2 record from five matches played so far against teams currently in the top four.

In Summary

Since suffering a shock home defeat to Sassuolo back in late September, Inter Milan have been relentless. Another factor which could easily help Inter here is that they are already out of European action this season, losing in the Champions League Round of 16 against Atlético Madrid.

AC Milan however, have a UEFA Europa League match just four days before the league Milan derby on April 22nd, so Inter are much likelier to have fresher legs in their quest to bank three points.