Obidients’ Sleepless Nights

Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, the Labour Party’s running mate to Peter Gregory Obi in the 2023 presidential election, has every reason to feel concerned about the political exploits of his erstwhile comrade and principal.

Reading the charts, the political realignments, and watching the hawks and kites hovering, he needs no crystal ball to see that the signs are much more than confusing – he is uneasy and assured that it bodes no political good. He knows deep down that Obi is neither a hawk nor a kite, and that a pigeon among raptors is endangered.

In Baba-Ahmed’s wisdom, the new African Democratic Congress (ADC) is a very poor mimicry of the 2013 All Progressives Congress, which toppled the ruling Peoples Democratic Party in 2015. Unlike the APC, which had a focal point in Muhammadu Buhari, the ADC is replete with ambitious individuals who would sooner launch a personal quest than sacrifice to build a strategic alliance.

Peter Obi has obviously been bitten by the bug of political nomadism. It’s beguiling that the soft-spoken, one-and-only governor under the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) for eight long years would, in no time, be wandering across Nigeria’s political minefields like a vagrant.

It is mumbled that Obi told the late Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, the Ikenga Nnewi and arguably the godfather of the Igbo nation, and other party chieftains back in the day that he’d never leave APGA. But tracking his political roadmap in the last few years. One is compelled to ask: What really happened? Why did he japa – a term Nigerians have adopted for migration – from APGA to obtain three passports in three different parties and still counting?

In the run-up to 2023, Obi had it all going for him – including the fact that young voters and his spontaneous Obidient Movement were all too willing to overlook his not-so-impressive record as two-term governor of his home state of Anambra in south-eastern Nigeria.

His successful career in banking and business far overshadowed his politically exposed underbelly. His protracted and successful legal challenge for his stolen mandate first against Chris Ngige, and afterwards against Andi Ubah, became a battle armour that cast him in the image of a knight.

All his political travails as governor – impeachment and reinstatement, removal and reinstallation by the Supreme Court, re-election for a second term in 2010, and a reputation for refusing to give shishi or patronage with state resources became his biggest political assets.

Put together, these pedigrees were good entries in his resume that also became the stepping stone to his adoption as vice presidential candidate to Atiku Abubakar, a party migrant with decades of experience under his belt crisscrossing Nigeria’s party landscapes.

Then entre Obi, the presidential candidate in 2023. He slept in PDD the night before and woke up in the Labour Party at dawn. His first outing as vice presidential candidate had shot his profile well beyond the southeast. But PDP’s nest had no space. Obi weaned himself and felt ready to fly.

So he found a quick fix like all his political kin. The LP coast was clear, the prospects were good, and the ticket had no competition.

Like Kenya’s William Ruto, he donned the garb of a “hustler,” and prospective voters rushed to his tent. Here at last was a politician who felt like Babangida’s new breed – more than 30 years after. He called himself a trader, and the results would show significantly in the outcome of his 2023 presidential result charts. His political stars were favourably aligned.

But unlike Kenya, Nigeria’s political dynamics require much more than populism driven by intemperate young followers wearing their emotions on their sleeves and throwing curses at every dissenting voice.

A fair number of aspirants got elected simply by gambling on the LP ticket. Such was the yearning for a difference from the APC-PDP conundrum that many voters just went for broke.

There were great expectations that after his brave attempt and coming in third place at the presidential polls, Obi would retreat, rebuild, and consolidate to launch a blazing political career after reviewing post-election scenarios.

Alas, he not only let the moment slip, the momentum has all but been lost.

His opportunistic launchpad – the Labour Party is in disarray and factionalised. Rather than keep his head down and strategise, Obi is hunting with the hounds and giving Obidients sleepless nights.

Obi’s foray into the Labour Party, warts and all, redefined opposition politics in Nigeria. Its waves even buried the glaring contradictions of a capitalist appropriating and running on a socialist platform.

His flirtation with different parties speaks far more about the politics of opportunism than the desire for egalitarian representation.

A critically minded electorate should worry that such political nomadism undermines ideological consistency and loyalty. It puts him in the same boat with the same politicians Obi’s followers think he would do better than and is distinct from.

As another election cycle approaches in 2027, Obi’s political capital has been significantly eroded. He ought to be concerned about Datti Baba-Ahmed’s ringside commentary. Social media popularity and youth-driven support seldom translate to votes. And like the venerable Chinua Achebe stated in his essay, The Trouble With Nigeria, “the real test of integrity is in the refusal to compromise.”

Beyond the one-party state false alarm, Nigeria is in dire need of a potent and viable opposition that keeps the ruling APC on its toes in the knowledge that the shadow government it fears is right at the corridors waiting for the next election. That chance has always been lost because politics and personal interest assume the driver’s seat at the expense of nation building.

Most great endings have humble beginnings. If Obi is the meek and humble hustler he wants Nigerians to take him for, he has to listen again to the cacophonous orchestra the Coalition is playing. There’s but a little time to regroup and refocus the LP. But will the falcon listen to the falconer?