The North East of Nigeria has long been defined by both its beauty and its burdens. Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe form a region of vast landscapes, resilient cultures, and deep historical roots. Yet it has also endured decades of economic neglect, environmental fragility, and, in recent years, the violence of insurgency and banditry. The 2025 Phillips Consulting State Performance Index (pSPI) offers a rare, data-driven portrait of how each state is navigating these challenges. The results show a region of contrasts – some states clawing their way upward despite the odds, others sinking deeper into dysfunction.
In many ways, the North East’s trajectory mirrors that of Eastern Europe after the Second World War: a territory battered by conflict, struggling to rebuild while balancing immediate survival with long-term transformation. Where leadership has combined vision with discipline, progress has been possible. Where it has leaned on rhetoric without reform, decline has followed.
Adamawa and Gombe: Proof That Progress Is Possible
Adamawa’s 4th-place ranking nationally is nothing short of remarkable. Long regarded as a peripheral state, it has managed to climb into the top tier by focusing on the fundamentals: improving fiscal transparency, expanding agricultural productivity, and rebuilding key infrastructure. Roads linking rural areas to Yola and Jimeta have boosted trade, while reforms in local governance have improved citizen perception. Adamawa’s rise recalls post-war Finland, which, after being scarred by conflict and geopolitical isolation, rebuilt its economy through disciplined investment in human capital and infrastructure.
Gombe, ranking 7th, tells a similar story of strategic focus. It has leveraged its relatively compact size to improve service delivery, with targeted investments in health and education. Gombe’s governance style reflects the maxim that “small is nimble” – much like Singapore in the 1970s, which capitalised on limited resources by concentrating on efficiency and export-oriented growth. By focusing on what it can control, rather than lamenting what it lacks, Gombe has become a quiet reformer in the region.
Both states face the challenge of sustaining their momentum in a volatile security environment. The lesson from history is clear: post-crisis gains are fragile without institutional depth. Just as the economic gains of 1920s Weimar Germany evaporated under political instability, so too can the North East’s progress vanish without continued reform and regional coordination.
Bauchi: Promise on the Edge of Fulfilment
Bauchi’s 12th-place ranking suggests a state on the cusp of joining the higher performers. It has made advances in agriculture, health, and education, but its progress remains uneven. The state’s economic geography requires more than incremental fixes. Bauchi’s situation is akin to that of post-independence India: vast potential, democratic governance, but hampered by bureaucratic inertia and patchy infrastructure.
Citizen perception data indicates that while people acknowledge improvements, they remain sceptical about whether change will be sustained or distributed evenly. This is a reminder that trust is not built solely on visible projects; it is earned through consistent delivery and inclusion. Bauchi’s leadership must decide whether it will settle into comfortable middle-tier status or push aggressively to join the region’s leaders.
Taraba and Yobe: Underperforming in Spite of Resources
Taraba, ranked 24th, is a state of striking natural beauty and rich agricultural potential. From the Mambilla Plateau to its river valleys, it has the makings of a major agro-industrial hub. Yet it remains underperforming, its infrastructure poor, governance inconsistent, and security situation unstable. It evokes the image of Argentina in the early 20th century, a country blessed with fertile land and export potential, yet unable to translate that advantage into sustained prosperity because of political volatility and weak institutions.
Yobe’s 27th-place ranking reflects a state still struggling to emerge from the shadows of conflict. While there have been modest improvements in health and education, they have not been sufficient to transform citizen perception. The state faces a double challenge: rebuilding physical infrastructure while restoring the confidence of its people in public institutions. Like post-civil-war Lebanon, Yobe must contend with both the visible scars of destruction and the invisible scars of mistrust.
Borno: The Weight of Premature Loadbearing
Borno’s 36th-place ranking is sobering. Despite Governor Babagana Zulum’s personal energy and hands-on leadership style, the state remains mired in poor outcomes. Some of the problem lies in what development economists call “premature loadbearing” – expecting fragile institutions to deliver under the crushing weight of simultaneous crises without first strengthening their capacity. In Borno, the demands of humanitarian relief, security coordination, infrastructure rebuilding, and economic revitalisation are all pressing at once. Even the most capable leadership would struggle to carry that load without institutional depth and strong subnational partnerships.
Compounding this is the risk of “isomorphic mimicry” – adopting the appearance of reform without its substance. Borno has announced numerous initiatives in agriculture, education, and infrastructure, but many remain at the stage of policy pronouncements and pilot projects. This mirrors the experience of post-colonial states in Africa and Asia during the 1960s, which borrowed governance models from elsewhere without adapting them to local realities, producing form without function.
Governor Zulum’s personal popularity is real, but it will not be enough. History offers a warning from Julius Caesar’s Rome: charismatic leadership can win battles, but without institutional reforms, the republic still decays. For Borno, the real test is whether governance systems can be strengthened to survive and perform beyond the tenure of any one leader.
The Path Forward for the North East
The North East’s mixed pSPI performance underscores one central truth: resilience alone is not development. Adamawa and Gombe have shown that even in a hostile environment, disciplined governance and strategic investment can produce measurable gains. Bauchi sits at a tipping point, able to rise or fall depending on whether it embraces bold reform. Taraba and Yobe remain underperformers despite their natural and human resources, a reminder that potential is meaningless without execution. Borno, for all its leadership dynamism, is proof that crisis response must be paired with long-term institution-building.
History offers examples of regions that turned adversity into renewal. Post-war South Korea was poorer than many African states in the 1950s, yet by aligning governance, investment, and education policy, it transformed into an industrial powerhouse within a generation. The North East cannot copy this trajectory wholesale, but it can draw from the principle that adversity can sharpen focus if leaders resist the temptation to govern on autopilot.
Security remains the immovable foundation. Without it, roads, schools, and markets cannot function. But security alone is insufficient; it must be embedded in a wider development strategy. Farmers need guaranteed access to markets, not just protection from attack. Youths need pathways to employment, not just vocational centres with no link to actual industries. Infrastructure must be prioritised for economic connectivity – roads linking agricultural belts to urban centres, energy projects powering local industries, digital infrastructure connecting the region to national and global markets.
The pSPI is not an oracle; it is a mirror. It has shown the North East both its achievements and its failings, its resilience and its vulnerabilities. Whether the region will look into that mirror and choose reinvention over resignation will determine whether its future is defined by the promise of Adamawa and Gombe – or by the cautionary fate of Borno’s premature loadbearing.
