FX Stability, Capital Inflows Drive N26trn Gain In Stock Market

Analysts on the Nigerian capital market have attributed the equities performance of N26.01 trillion gain in eight months to various factors, including foreign exchange stability, recovery of companies from FX losses, stronger market liquidity, and increased capital inflows.

They also cited the dominance of domestic investors, increased portfolio investments, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s recapitalisation of banks, and reforms in the insurance sector as contributing to the market’s growth.

Market capitalisation, which opened the year at N62.76 trillion, rose by N26.01 trillion to close at N88.77 trillion on August 29, 2025. Similarly, the Nigerian Exchange Limited All-Share Index (NGX ASI) advanced by 37,369.10 basis points or 36.31 per cent year-to-date, climbing from 102,926.40 points at the end of 2024 to 140,295.50 basis points.

The year has also witnessed the listing by introduction of Legend Internet Plc, alongside banks announcing the outcomes of fresh capital raising exercises on the Exchange.

Market performance has been further buoyed by improved corporate earnings and growing foreign investor interest, with several stocks recording strong gains month-to-date.

Speaking on market performance, the managing director of Globalview Capital Limited, Mr. Aruna Kebira said that the stock market has benefitted from the decline in inflation and unattractive money market yields.

“The yields in the money market are not looking as attractive as they were in 2024, making discerning investors in search of better yields consider the capital market as their investment destination,” Kebira said.

He added that “in the last MPC, the MPR was retained, including other metrics. This is sending positive signals that, as the inflation figure and money market yields are downward looking, the MPC would have a reason to tinker the MPR downward, which is not always fixed income friendly.”

Looking ahead, Kebira predicted that September’s performance would depend largely on half-year audited results from leading banks.

“If the various issuers demonstrate a performance higher than the corresponding period of 2024 and declare an impressive interim dividend, the stock market will move to appreciate their prices. I also see an improvement in liquidity around the stock market arena, which will boost market participation and invite the bull into the market,” he said.

The managing director/chief executive officer of APT Securities and Funds Limited, Mr. Kasimu Kurfi projected that the market would surpass N100 trillion in capitalisation by year-end, driven by FX stability, strong corporate fundamentals, and increased primary market activity.

“In 2025, we have seen zero FX losses due to exchange rate stability, and this has significantly boosted investor confidence,” Kurfi noted.

He recalled that listed companies recorded pre-tax FX losses of N867 billion between 2023 and 2024, but reforms have eliminated such losses this year. He added that the signing of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA 25) had triggered a rally in insurance stocks, while the CBN’s bank recapitalisation programme attracted over N2 trillion in 2024, with similar volumes expected this year.

Vice president of Highcap Securities, David Adonri, observed that the 2025 rally has been propelled by renewed interest in blue-chip stocks such as Airtel Africa, Nestle Nigeria, Nigerian Breweries, Cadbury Nigeria, and MTN Nigeria Communications (MTNN).

Also, analysts at Cordros Research said, “We believe the domestic equities market might respond positively to the MPC’s decision to pause interest rate hikes as investors assess the likelihood of policy easing in the medium term.

“We also expect to see some rotation into sectors positioned for expansion in a lower-rate environment, particularly manufacturing, as lower financing costs, improved input cost dynamics, and stronger consumer demand enhance growth prospects.”