On October 1, 2025, Nigeria will clock 65 years of independence. For a nation long described as “the Giant of Africa,” this milestone should symbolize maturity, resilience, and economic stability. Instead, it exposes a paradox: an economy that, despite decades of opportunities and abundant resources, still struggles to stand firmly on its own feet. At 65, Nigeria is likened to an adult still crawling, full of potential but unable to walk with confidence.
At the heart of the paradox is the economy’s long history of missed opportunities. Nigeria, endowed with oil, gas, fertile land, minerals, and one of the most vibrant youth populations in the world, has repeatedly fallen short of expectations. While crude oil revenues once promised prosperity, the overreliance on petroleum exports stunted diversification. Manufacturing remains shallow, currently contributing an average of 3 percent to the country’s GDP; agriculture is undercapitalized, and infrastructure gaps limit productivity.
“Nigeria is like a person who has had many birthdays but never truly matured,” said Professor Uche Ugamba, a political economist. “We celebrate independence, but our economy is still fragile, unstable, and highly vulnerable to external shocks. That is not what a 65-year-old should look like.”
For ordinary citizens, the contradiction is glaring. Inflation, as of September 2025, stands at 21.3 percent, continuing a volatile upward trend from the 12-15 percent range reported five years ago and sharply higher than the single-digit rates often recorded in the 1960s and 1970s. Food prices have doubled in many cases, reflecting persistent supply chain challenges and exchange rate pressures.
Nigeria’s GDP growth rate has seen significant fluctuation over the last five years, averaging around 2.5 percent, a modest rebound from the recessions experienced in 2020 due to COVID-19 disruptions. Historically, from independence in 1960 through the 1980s, Nigeria recorded average growth rates exceeding 5 percent, but the past decade has revealed structural weaknesses delaying sustained growth.
Nigeria’s overall unemployment rate was 4.3 percent in Q2 2024, a decrease from 5.3 percent in Q1 2024. However, this number only reflects those actively seeking work but unable to find it. The National Bureau of Statistics also reports higher rates for informal employment and specific demographics, such as 97.6 percent informal employment for rural dwellers and a youth unemployment rate of 8.4 percent in Q1 2024. While these may look good on paper, analysts have maintained that they do not reflect the reality on the ground, characterized by both a growing labour force and inadequate job creation.
Historical data show unemployment rates were generally lower from the 1960s through much of the 90s but have worsened sharply in recent years. Electricity supply has remained erratic, with an average national grid supply rate of about 4,000 MW currently, insufficient for a population of over 200 million. Five years ago, supply hovered around 3,500 MW, a modest improvement from the approximately 2,000 MW typical in the early 2000s. This is a far cry from the staggering average demand of 30,000 MW for the country.
In the 1960s, grid infrastructure was minimal, but progress has been limited by underinvestment and system losses. The food import bill also underscores vulnerabilities, surpassing $5 billion in 2024, a steep rise from around $2 billion a decade ago, reflecting domestic production challenges and population growth. Early in Nigeria’s history, food imports were far lower, but increasing dependency has emerged alongside urbanization and supply chain bottlenecks.
Crude oil production, the traditional economic backbone, currently averages 1.75 million barrels per day (bpd), down from peaks of over 2.2 million bpd five years ago due to security and infrastructural problems. This output is significantly below Nigeria’s OPEC quota and below earlier recorded peaks in the 1970s and 80s, when production reached over 2.5 million bpd.
GDP per capita, an important measure of individual economic well-being, is approximately $2,400 in 2024. Nigeria’s GDP per capita has historically averaged around $1,856.66 from 1960 to 2024, according to Trading Economics.
This amount shows incremental growth from around $2,000 five years ago but remains low compared to higher-income emerging economies. In the first decades after independence, GDP per capita increases were more pronounced but have stagnated or declined in real terms during economic downturns.
The Nigerian stock market has been one of the few bright spots amid these challenges. The Nigerian Exchange Limited All-Share Index (NGX ASI) reached its highest peak of about 139,863 points in July 2025, marking a strong year-to-date return of approximately 27.8 percent. This performance ranks Nigeria among the top six best-performing stock markets in Africa for 2025.
The market’s capitalization hit a record high of about 112.6 trillion naira as of early 2025, buoyed by government reforms, banking sector recapitalization, and foreign investor interest in undervalued equities. Major sectoral gains were led by consumer goods, banking, and insurance, with the NGX Consumer Goods Index surging over 52 percent year-to-date.
“I was born in 1965, five years after independence,” said Mrs. Oby Ude, a retired teacher in Enugu. “I have seen governments come and go, and each promised better times. But now, at 60 plus, Nigeria still struggles with the same problems of poverty, corruption, and poor leadership. It feels as though the country never grew up,” she said.
Analysts point to cycles of reform followed by stagnation. Structural Adjustment Programs in the 1980s, democratic reforms in the 2000s, and more recent economic measures, such as the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate unification, were meant to set Nigeria on a growth path. Yet, poor implementation, corruption, and policy reversals often undermine progress.
Still, Nigeria’s economy is not without bright spots. The creative industry, led by Nollywood and Afrobeats, has put the nation on the global cultural map. The tech sector, with hubs in Lagos and Abuja, attracts billions in investment and has produced startups competing globally. Agriculture is gradually modernizing, with states like Kebbi, Oyo, and Benue investing in rice, cassava, and cocoa value chains. And the stock market, despite the broader hardship, has continued to post strong performance, boosted by banking recapitalization and investor optimism.
“These are signals of what Nigeria can achieve when innovation meets resilience,” said Simon Egwu, a senior economist at CashLinks. “But the challenge is scaling these successes into nationwide transformation. At 65, we cannot continue relying on pockets of brilliance; we need structural growth that lifts millions out of poverty,” Egwu said.
Comparisons with other countries reveal Nigeria’s stunted growth. Nations like Malaysia, Indonesia, and South Korea, which shared similar starting points in the 1960s, have become industrial and economic powerhouses. Malaysia’s inflation rate over the past five years has stabilized around 2-3 percent, with GDP growth averaging 4-5 percent, and unemployment rates below 4 percent. South Korea boasts an average GDP per capita above $35,000 in 2025, along with near-universal electricity access and robust food security, contrasting with Nigeria’s challenges despite being Africa’s fourth-largest economy on paper.
In Lagos, market trader Amina Yusuf voiced frustration: “They call us the giant of Africa, but look at the roads, the cost of food, and the electricity. At 65, we should be exporting cars, electronics, and technology, not crying over the price of rice.”
Yet optimism persists among some observers, who argue that Nigeria’s youthful population could be the game-changer. With over 200 million people, over half under 30, the country has the human capital to transform into a global economic force if it invests in skills, innovation, and industries beyond oil.
“Demographics are destiny,” said Dr. Samuel Omotehinse, a Lagos-based economist. “By 2050, Nigeria will be the third most populous country in the world. If we get it right, the next 20 years could redefine our place globally. But if we continue crawling at 65, the burden of poverty and unemployment will overwhelm us,” he stated.
As Nigeria marks 65 years of independence, the metaphor of an “adult still crawling” captures both the disappointment of unmet expectations and the urgency of reform. The nation has the size, resources, and talent to rise, but it must break the cycle of dependence, corruption, and weak governance. For many citizens, the hope remains that before the next decade, Nigeria will finally learn to walk upright, an economy not just counted by numbers but felt in the daily lives of its people.
