Political Dynamics Influencing Nasarawa Guber Race Ahead Of 2027

With 2027 election preparations heating up nationwide, AHMED TAHIR analyses the political forces shaping Nasarawa’s gubernatorial contest.

Pressure is mounting in political camps in Nasarawa State ahead of the 2027 general elections and the atmosphere is charging with each passing day.

This is not an unusual sign, rather, it has been the norm, when the traditional power blocs fight for the governorship ticket before the main trophy. In the governing party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) where most of the state’s gladiators congregate, it has always been an all-out war waged against itself, and the 2027 episode promises to be very tight and intriguing going by the early indications.

The prediction is reinforced by the fact that the actors are more formidable with track records and indelible footprints spanning decades in their chosen vocation.

At the last count, more than 24 of them are vying for the party’s slot. Out of the lot, they are those analysts referred to as front liners, dazzling other contenders with their imposing credentials. They include Senator Ahmed Aliyu Wadada, chairman of the senate committee on public accounts and senator representing Nasarawa West; former Inspector General of Police Mohammed Adamu; former executive secretary of the National Primary Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA), Dr Faisal Shuaib and the immediate past executive chairman of the National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI), Prof. Mohammed Sani Haruna, among others.

But narrowing the scope, Wadada and Adamu stand out, daring and imposing, with analysts saying the duo can successfully find their ways in the hitherto clouded political atmosphere without the aid of a godfather to light the path.

Wadda is a returnee who rebelled against the status quo, dumped the governing party and defeated it on the road to the senate in 2023 using a relegated platform, the Social Democratic Party (SDP). He is back to the fold hoping that his former alliance will aid his way to the state’s most coveted seat. It is however not clear whether the key stakeholders will just ignore what some party members referred to as a “transgression” which demystified a revered power bloc and humbled incumbency power.

Like Wadada, IGP Adamu is somehow forging his own path politically in the state from a “barren” point.  Excerpt from a somewhat brief stint as a geography teacher and vice principal in Nasarawa State, he spent most of his productive years as a police officer far away from politics.

A peek at his biography indicated that a greater portion of those years was spent abroad working with Interpol, and when he eventually returned to the country, he was put in charge of peace keeping operations, dictating the pace of deployment and tactical operation.

Having dropped the uniform for the civilian garb, Adamu had kept low profile, and is hardly seen within political circles. Information regarding his aspiration started as a rumor with many dismissing it as a “huge joke’, stressing that the non-smiling ex-cop with a spartan disposition is not someone that will indulge in politics. But others have drawn from the late president Muhammadu Buhari’s example to buttress their argument on why the former IG should not be ruled out of politics.

However, Adamu put the raging speculation to rest at a strategic meeting with members of the APC state working committee in Lafia, the state capital on April 24, 2025.

“I am answering the call of my people who believe I can serve and move Nasarawa forward,” he told the committee, while promising to provide an inclusive and transparent government.

Sine his declaration of intent months ago, he has been dominating the political space, and even somehow directing its pace, creating shivers in the camps of his competitors. Within those months the ex-police boss has been building strong structural base and amassing crowd of supporters to the consternation of his opponents.

Besides his own teeming supporters, the former governor, Umaru Tanko Al-Makura’s loyalists and foot-soldiers are already identifying with him, fueling speculations of a possible alignment with the politicians who took the state by the storm in 2011, displaced the existing establishment to become the governor of the state on the platform of a party which was at formative stage.

The former IGP’s camp has since dismissed the alignment fears as speculative, stressing that being a Lafia man; it is natural for the former senator’s loyalists to identify with him, even as they argued that Adamu by his benevolence is wont to attract support across all camps.

Within the party ranks, the former IGP is building a coalition of loyalists who praise him for consolidating on the achievements through empowerment initiatives targeting the poor and vulnerable in line with the party’s ideals and manifesto.

Mahmoud Danladi, an APC youth leader noted that in a state where all development projects are dependent on resources from government, an intervention by public-spirited individuals like Adamu would spur more support for the party ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Some people, especially within the opponents’ camps, have described the empowerment programmes introduced by the former IGP which include distribution of food and essential items, education endowment, medical outreach, skills acquisition among others as political and attention seeking.

The medical outreach is intended to provide free eye screening and surgeries for people with eye problems, free screening and medication for diabetes patients, free screening and medication for hepatitis patients, and free delivery items for pregnant women.

Tagged, “M.A Adamu Medical Outreach” the ex-police boss described the vision behind the initiative thus: “This gesture is part of my commitment to ensuring that no one is left behind in accessing healthcare. MediCare for Renewed Hope is about giving back to society, strengthening community health, and promoting the well-being of our people.”

He said over 15, 000 people suffering from different ailments in various communities across the state, according to sources close him, have been treated while over 23,000 vulnerable women and youths were said to have also benefited empowerment initiatives providing grants and other startups to enable them replicate and step down whatever skills they acquired through the initiatives.

The progressive youth leader urged other well-to-do persons irrespective of party affiliation to identify areas of needs such as education where he said the IGP was also supporting children of the underprivileged in schools in the state. He explained that the programme had given some undergraduates and secondary school dropouts an opportunity to complete their studies.

The ex-police boss’s wife, Hajiya Rukaiya Adamu, is also providing vocational training, start-up capital and mentorship for young people across the state.

She has extended humanitarian outreach to some local government areas distributing food items and cash support to displaced persons.

In Toto local government area recently, she distributed food items and cash support worth N12 million to a total of 1,200 vulnerable women drawn across the 12 electoral wards of the area.

An APC stalwart from Karu LGA, Emmanuel Adamu noted that those referring to the gesture  by the former IGP as politically-motivated should come out and do the same for the benefit of the people.

He said, “In these challenging economic times, it is heartening to witness the initiatives of our former IGP, Muhammad Abubakar Adamu. His recent philanthropic outreach, spanning food distribution and medical services across the 13 LGAs of the state, is truly commendable.

“By providing essential food items and conducting comprehensive medical outreach, he is directly addressing the immediate needs of the less privileged, ensuring that they received both sustenance and healthcare support” he said.

The ex-IGP’s opponents, especially from Nasarawa West senatorial district, are hiding behind the existing zoning formula which they assumed would favour them to dismiss his challenge.

LEADERSHIP reports that all the three zones have had their turns in administering the affairs of the state with a slight disruption which analysts said may undermine the process.

It started from 1999 when the state’s first civilian governor, Abdullahi Adamu, from Nasarawa West, governed for eight years. Power then shifted to Nasarawa South, where Aliyu Akwe Doma served for four years, followed by Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, also from the South, who governed for another eight years — making it 12 uninterrupted years for the southern zone.

In 2019, Al-Makura handed over to the incumbent governor, Abdullahi Sule from Nasarawa North, who will complete eight years in 2027. For fairness and balance, many argue that power should return to Nasarawa West in 2027, especially since most aspirants are from that zone.

But there are discordant tunes dismissing the agitation from both the North and South. Those from the South want the zone to compete Aliyu Akwe’s tenure of two years and run another term of four years.  The northern agitators on other hand want  another rotation to commence from there since the zone is the last to take its turn.

But there are other elements who are canvasing for the democratization of the entire process where the alot will be open to contest by all since the slot has gone round.

The pro-democratisation seems to be in the majority even as analysts said zoning was introduced by the PDP and inherited by the APC after being disrupted by the CPC, arguing that it does not foreclose contest by all interested aspirants.