The 2027 Presidential Elections and The Rise Of Demagogues

Nigeria is approaching another presidential election with the old fever of rumours, factional betrayals, hired applause, regional bargaining and dangerous simplifications. The merchants of power are selling certainty where there is confusion and noise, where the country demands thought. By 2027, Nigeria will decide whether democracy remains an instrument of renewal or collapses into a marketplace of demagogues.

A demagogue is not simply a loud politician. He is more dangerous than noise. He studies the people’s wounds, not to heal them but to exploit them. He turns hunger into anger, anger into hatred, and hatred into votes. He does not build institutions; he builds mobs. He does not offer a programme; he offers an enemy.

The recent political primaries across parties have exposed disturbing anti-democratic tendencies. A form of cultic civilian dictatorship now masquerades as party discipline. Party organs are weakened. Citizens are pushed aside. The people are no longer the centre of politics; they are spectators invited only to clap after decisions have been taken elsewhere.

Across many states, governors have become local emperors, political demigods before whom party structures tremble. They command state resources, influence party executives, intimidate dissenting voices, and turn primaries into coronation ceremonies. In too many states, the governorship has become a throne.

Party primaries, which should be the first school of democratic choice, have been reduced to private announcements. Delegates gather, yet decisions have already been made. Aspirants print posters, yet the governor has already chosen his friend, relation or acolyte. Party members queue in the sun, yet the ticket has already been written elsewhere.

When governors hold primaries solely to announce loyalists, relatives, financiers and political errand boys, democracy dies before the general election even begins. The citizen is deceived twice: first by the party, then by the ballot. What appears before the voter is often not the people’s choice but the governor’s choice, disguised as the party’s will.

This is why Nigeria’s democratic crisis runs deeper than election-day violence or vote-buying. The corruption begins earlier: in the capture of party structures, the quiet murder of internal democracy, the sacrifice of competence for loyalty, and the punishment of courage as rebellion. A republic cannot flourish where parties are private estates.

The 2027 election must therefore be more than a contest of personalities. It must be a referendum on the moral direction of the Nigerian state. Who speaks truthfully about insecurity? Who understands the economy beyond slogans? Who respects the courts, the legislature, the press and the independence of electoral institutions? Who can hold Nigeria together without frightening any part of the country into silence?

Within this national question, the North-Central must be mentioned with courage. The North-Central is the beautiful bride of the 2027 elections. But the beautiful bride must be courted with charm, respect and sincerity. It must be invited to the presidential ticket with honour.

The next Vice President of Nigeria should come from the North-Central, with serious consideration given to Benue or Plateau State. This is not charity. It is not sentiment. It is a national argument rooted in justice, balance, loyalty, sacrifice and strategic necessity. In 1999, Nigeria elected Olusegun Obasanjo, in part, as a tribute to justice, equity and national healing. In 2027, the North-Central question deserves similar moral seriousness.

Since 1999, the North-East and North-West have enjoyed greater visibility in the commanding heights of presidential power. The North-East has held the vice-presidential office, first with Atiku Abubakar and now with Kashim Shettima. The North-West has held the presidency under Muhammadu Buhari and briefly under Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. That imbalance should now be corrected.

The voting data strengthens the argument. In the 2023 presidential election, the North-Central zone gave Bola Tinubu and the APC 1,760,993 votes, representing 38.58 per cent of valid votes in the zone. Benue gave the APC 310,468 votes, and Plateau gave 307,195 votes. Together, Benue and Plateau alone gave the APC more than 617,000 votes, despite deep wounds from insecurity, grief and political anxiety.

No serious party should treat such a region as disposable. A zone that gives its votes must also be honoured. The North-Central cannot continue to be remembered only as a bridge and forgotten as a destination.

Benue and Plateau stand at the painful crossroads of Nigeria’s contradictions: land, faith, ethnicity, agriculture, insecurity, federal neglect and national survival. Benue is known as the Food Basket of the Nation, yet its farmers have too often reaped grief. Plateau is one of Nigeria’s most beautiful symbols of diversity, yet its hills have too often echoed with conflict and mourning.

A Vice President from Benue or Plateau would symbolise something larger than geography. It would signal that Nigeria is finally ready to listen to the Middle Belt, not merely to use it. It would affirm that communities that have buried their dead, protected food systems, defended coexistence and remained loyal to the federation are not invisible within the architecture of national power.

For the APC, the strategic map is clear. The party must focus on the South-West and North-Central as core must-win zones. The North-Central is the balancing region that can give the ticket national depth, moral legitimacy and electoral stability. The APC cannot afford to treat Benue as a minor quarrel or Plateau as a lost opportunity.

In Benue, the party must reconcile its wounds. It must not allow cliques, bitterness, personal pride or gubernatorial arrogance to destroy its electoral inheritance. The unity of APC in Benue, goodwill in Plateau, consolidation of Nasarawa, strengthening of Kwara and careful management of Niger and Kogi will determine whether the North-Central remains a bridge to victory or becomes a warning ignored too late.

The opposition must also learn wisdom. The PDP cannot win decisively if it remains a battlefield of exhausted ambitions. In too many states where the APC is divided, the PDP assumes that APC’s quarrel is enough to guarantee victory. This is a lazy strategy. The divided house of one party does not automatically become the mansion of another.

The emerging NDC/ADC-type opposition alignment must be examined carefully. A coalition is not the same as cohesion. A coalition without sacrifice is merely a photograph. If every man insists on being the bridegroom, the wedding will never take place. Any NDC-style movement must not become a shelter for displaced ambition; it must become a principled platform with structure, ideology, discipline and national seriousness.

The SDP bears a name associated with democratic memory, but memory alone cannot win a modern election. If it is serious, it must organise ward by ward, state by state, and community by community. Without structure, even the noblest manifesto becomes a sermon without a congregation.

Nigeria must beware the coming festival of demagogues. Reject those who weaponise tribe. Reject those who preach religion only when they need votes. Reject those who distribute money but cannot distribute justice. Reject those who insult questions because they fear answers. Reject those who promise paradise while travelling with the architects of hell.

The presidency and vice presidency are constitutional trusts in a wounded republic. History will not pity us if we continue to advance the careers of demagogues whose rise marks the beginning of the end of our democracy.

This is the danger we face; it must not be romanticised or excused.