Atiku Abubakar’s Subsidy Pitch

Nigerians wanted an issue-based campaign ahead of the 2027 presidential elections. And from all indications, they appear to have gotten one.

ADC candidate, Atiku Abubakar’s proposal to restore fuel subsidy, should he win the presidency, struck at the very core of one of the most consequential and controversial policies of the Bola Tinubu APC-led government: the removal of petrol subsidy.

For an opposition seeking to defeat an incumbent party, policy contradictions must be pursued relentlessly. Atiku found a pressure point that goes directly into the kitchen, farm, factory, classroom, and hospital. He needed to keep pressing it.

Politically, it was a smart opening. Economically, it touched a nerve that Nigerians feel every day. Every presidential candidate has since followed in their footsteps. The one exception has been Adewole Adebayo of the SDP, who has ruled out a return to the subsidy regime. Then, there is Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo, the APM candidate who promises cheaper crude from local refineries.

Peter Obi of the NDC initially dismissed the idea of restoring the subsidy. Seeing how it resonates with the electorate, he changed his mind.

Donald Duke, the PRP candidate, has gone further than anyone else, promising to bring the price of PMS down to as low as N300 per litre.

But it is the ruling APC that has been at a loss as to how to respond to the subsidy issue, knowing how it has turned Nigerians’ lives upside down right from the very moment it was announced on 29 May 2023.

The government was always in a dilemma on how to respond. There was no way it was going to reverse itself, even temporarily, without looking flippant. It also couldn’t remain in denial about the impact of the subsidy removal.

So, it has settled for a middle ground: a 30-day discount at NNPCL stations for public transporters to ease the pressure on households.

The subsidy removal was presented as a necessary reform to free government resources, eliminate distortions, and create a more efficient economy. But its consequences have travelled far beyond the petrol station. Transport costs rose, food prices surged, farmers faced higher production and logistics costs, manufacturers faced higher energy expenses, and businesses struggled with electricity generation costs.

The problem is that Atiku has not sustained the argument. His pitch was losing momentum. The real opportunity for Atiku was to force the APC to defend the full consequences of subsidy removal.

And just when he was struggling to keep the subsidy issue on the front pages, instead showing up at a filling station with his running mate Rotimi Amaechi in what could only be described as a publicity stunt, the APC government acted in response.

A petrol station photo opportunity cannot substitute for the sustained political communication required to persuade Nigerians that an alternative economic model is possible.