As Nigeria goes to the polls on Saturday, Nigerians will elect a new President who will pilot the affairs of the country in the next four years. LEADERSHIP political desk in this report x-rays the chances of the four leading presidential candidates in all the states.
North West
The battle for votes in Saturday’s presidential poll will be unprecedented. North West is the region with the highest number of voters in the country.
The campaign in the North West has been dicey. The presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Sen Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso who hails from the North Western State of Kano, will be battling with the Presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar for the majority votes.
Even though the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Sen Bola Ahmed Tinubu is banking on the governors in the region to give him the maximum votes, there is still a lot to be done following the naira crisis and the internal wrangling in the APC.
Also, the candidate of the Labour Party (LP) Mr Peter Obi, whose running mate is coming from the North Western State of Kaduna is hoping that the obidient movement moving like a wildfire on social media will ensure he gets the maximum 25 percent votes in the region, if added to others could give him the victory.
But the calculation in the North West is changing. Pundits believed that Kwankwaso and Atiku would battle for the votes of the North West.
While Kwankwaso is likely to take hold of his State Kano, some say Atiku is likely going to have the highest number of votes in States like Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Katsina and Kaduna.
For Jigawa State, pundits said the influence of the state governor, Muhammad Badaru Abubakar is likely to help the APC candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu to get the maximum 25 percent votes.
During the presidential campaign to the North West, large gatherings were witnessed except for the Labour Party which had less crowd when compared with that of APC and PDP.
Sources said the results of the election in the North West are likely to spring surprises as a lot of people seen at campaign rallies may not vote based on party.
“I monitored all the rallies in the North West. We know that elections are unpredictable but I can tell you with authority that Atiku Abubakar will take the day in the North West,” a former member of the House of Representatives, Jagaba Adams Jagaba told LEADERSHIP.
According to him, since Buhari will not be in the ballot on Saturday, the North West people have seen Atiku and the PDP as the alternative they have.
“Yes, APC, NNPP and Labour Party may get some votes, the majority of the vote will go to Atiku. Many people in the North West are with Atiku,” Jagaba said.
He said the Labour Party is penetrating some settlements without the region adding that even though they will get some votes, he added that their votes won’t be as much as that of Atiku.
Also speaking, former defence spokesman, Gen John Enenche, said the Peter Obi movement which has structures in all the states, will surprise many.
According to Enenche in an interview with LEADERSHIP, if Nigerians including the North West must vote for competence, added that Peter Obi is the most appropriate person to vote for.
It was gathered that while all the most popular candidates will get some votes in the North West, the cashless policy will hit candidates who have stockpiled cash for voter indusemen.
How candidates may perform in the 7 North West States
Kano
Kano State has the highest number of voters and has been giving the country the highest number of votes during elections. It has been a state where Buhari has been winning election in recent times. Since Buhari will not be in the Ballot, Kwankwaso is likely to have the majority votes despite the fact that the home state Governor Abdullahi Ganduje is supporting Tinubu. It may be a hard contest for Peter Obi of the labour party considering the low level of awareness that took place in the North West.
Sokoto
In Sokoto State, PDP has been doing well in the previous presidential election except for the merger of the opposition party that formed the APC. But with the State Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal being Atiku’s campaign director general, the state may likely, bearing last minute change, go to the PDP.
Kebbi
There will be a lot of drama in Kebbi state as the permutations keep changing. Kebbi is governed by the APC. The state Governor, Atiku Bagudu who is contesting for the senatorial seat and a staunch supporter of Tinubu, there will be a lot of surprises since two serving senators of the APC – Adamu Aliero and Yahaya Abdullahi will also be on the ballot for the PDP.
Zamfara
Zamfara state seems to be unpredictable but for the fact that the APC have a sitting governor, that can help their chances. Atiku, who is seen as the most influential politician after Buhari, will also get some votes in Zamfara state. The insecurity, poverty and other sundry issues may affect the chances of the APC to take the majority of the votes in the presidential election.
Katsina
Despite being the home states of president Muhammadu Buhari, Katsina seems to be moving towards the PDP as many politicians left the APC to the PDP including a serving senator and members of the House of Representatives.
Kaduna
Kaduna State will be unpredictable in this election. Buhari has always win his presidential election in Kaduna but now that he will not be on the ballot and the Governor of the state, Malam Nasir el-Rufai being against him, it is unlikely the APC will get it in a landslide.
Jigawa
The presidential election in Jigawa state will be between Atiku, Tinubu and Kwankwaso. While the state is governed by the APC, the party will get some substantial amount of votes in the state. The influence of Kwankwaso in Kano is likely to spread to Jigawa and translate into votes for him.
Lagos State
This is the home base of the political godfather whose influence is all over the South West geopolitical zone and beyond and also stretches beyond political party affiliation. Tibubu’s bond with the people of Lagos State is so strong that his party has produced successive governors in the state since 1999 when he was first elected as governor.
Having governed the state for two consecutive tenures between 1999 and 2007 and successfully nominated successive governors and other key political office holders from the state, it is safe to conclude that Tinubu holds the key to Lagos political structure. The most viable opposition that ever arose against the Tinubu hegemony after the late Engr Funsho Willians was the former minister of State for Defense and former Nigeria’s ambassador to Ghana, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, who is now a member of the APC. Also, the arrowhead of the major opposition PDP and the party’s governorship candidate in the state, Jide Adeniran had just left Tinubu’s party with his Lagos4Lagos caucus. This means that Jandor would have in the past enjoyed Ashiwaju’s goodwill and probably some political perks through the godfather’s benevolence. Therefore, one would not be wrong to insinuate that Ashiwaju, as fondly called has strong footprints in every major political party in the state.
Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP is not new to the context and will not have a very bad outing in Lagos State. But certain factors are likely to dwindle the chances of the PDP in the state. First and foremost, majority of the votes that would be earned by the Labour Party and the NNPP would be traditional votes of the PDP. This essentially suggests that the PDP is going into the election divided and may suffer some blows for it.
Secondly, the G5 factor may also affect the fortune of Atiku in Lagos. Since the de facto leader of the G5 Governors, Nyesom Wike of Rivers State has ruled out every possibility of reconciliation with the PDP, a faction of the PDP loyal to the course of G5 will most likely not work for Atiku which is a big minus. A former deputy national chairman of the PDP, Chief Olabode George, and his loyalists fall into this category.
Lastly, the choice of a famous actress, Funke Akindele as running mate to the party’s gubernatorial candidate in the state has generated controversy and the dust is still yet to settle. Governorship candidate of the Labour Party, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivor had claimed that he withdrew from the PDP governorship primaries for Adeniran to emerge based on the agreement that he would be chosen as his running mate, by Adeniran went ahead to name Akindele against the “agreement”.
Some PDP leaders also alleged that Adeniran and his Lagos4Lagos group have hijacked the PDP structure in the state and took major political decisions without recourse to the party’s major stakeholders. With just a few days to the presidential election, if the issues narrated above are not settled, it could affect the fortunes of the PDP in Lagos.
While it is very unlikely that the PDP’s Atiku Abubakar will win Lagos State, the struggle for the second position with the emerging Labour Party’s candidate, Peter Obi is intense and the PDP may be in for a surprise.
For Peter Obi, Lagos State is one part of Nigeria where the growing popularity of the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) will be felt during the election.
The cosmopolitan state is likely to witness an unprecedented turnout of voters for the 2023 election. This would mean that the percentage ratio of voters as against eligible voters would be more than what was recorded in previous elections. But the expected percentage increase who are not traditional voters in the state is likely to vote for Obi who has been conceived by many, particularly the youthful population as the new beacon of hope in Nigeria’s political space.
The candidacy of Obi has gathered momentum among the youth and a new set of voters that now consider support for Obi and the Labour Party as a show of solidarity and are holding rallies nationwide to show their support for him.
Since the return of democracy in May 1999, the presidential election has always been a two-horse race. But next Saturday’s election will witness a good showing of Peter Obi as the considerable number of Igbo people (a majority tribe in Nigeria that has not occupied the number 1 position in the country) who see the hope of an Igbo Presidency in Obi reside in Lagos will cast their votes in the state.
While it is unlikely that the Labour Party’s Peter Obi will win in Lagos, Obi is more likely to have a good outing in Lagos than any other state in the South West geopolitical zone.
However, it is most certain that Rabiu Kwanjwaso will be among the four most serious contenders in the presidential race and will record the lowest number of votes in Lagos State and indeed in most states in the southwest geopolitical zone.
The APC will most likely win the presidential election in Lagos, though not without a good fight from other political parties particularly the PDP and Labour Party. The margin with which APC would lead the PDP and Labour Party may not be very wide to justify Tinubu’s political stature, this notwithstanding, home is home and Tinubu will win Lagos State convincingly.
Ogun State
This is another stronghold of the APC and the party’s presidential candidate is more likely to record a good number of votes. The internal crisis rocking the ruling APC in the state is nothing for Tinubu to fear as all the political bigwigs including those opposed to the 2nd term ambition of Governor Dapo Abiodun, are all rooting for the Tinubu Presidency. All the APC presidential aspirants from the state except Vice President Yemi Osinbajo stepped down for Tinubu at the venue of the primaries and all that stepped down exemption of Pastor Tunde Bakare are favorably disposed to Tinubu’s ambition.
Just like in the neighboring Lagos State, PDP’s Atiku will gather some votes in Ogun, but the internal crisis involving Oladipo Adebutu and the Segun Sowunmi’s factions may dwindle the party’s fortune. Also, Labor party’s Peter Obi and NNPO’s Kwankwaso will likely not make an impressive outing Ogun State.
Oyo State
Although Oyo State is not a traditional stronghold of Ahiwaju Tinubu, APC will make a good showing in the political capital of the Southwest. Since 2011/when the PDP lost power in the state it managed to return to Agodi Government House in 2019 following an unholy alliance a few days after the governorship election. But the current governor, Seyi Makinde who is also a vocal voice in the G5 movement has mismanaged the party’s fortune, and integral components of the 2019 alliance and some core PDP loyalists have left the party.
It is also not clear who Governor Makinde will choose to support, but the G5/PDP crisis is a plus for Tinubu in the State, more so that the APC and its splinter group, Accord Party are resolute to ensure victory for him.
Without a last-minute alliance for Atiku by NNPP and SDP, Atiku may not have an impressive outing in the state.
Osun State
The battle between APC and PDP in Osun State will be a fierce one. The ruling APC had narrowly lost the governorship seat to the PDP in a now controversial election which is currently being contested in the Court of Appeal following the decision of the tribunal in favour of the APC.
The state is rumored to be the home state of Tinubu and the ousted governor, Gboyega Oyetola is believed by many to be Tinubu’s blood relative. As such, Osun APC is still very strong and resolute in support of Tinubu and this will reflect in the Saturdays election result.
But Osun is not without a challenge for the APC, a former governor of the state, current minister of interior, and erstwhile political ally of Tinubu, Rauf Aregbesola has not been seen campaigning for or against his former principal. This is a minus for Tinubu in the state and the former governor is not a nitwit politician. The duo of Tinubu and Aregbesola parted ways when the former choose to back the immediate past governor in a political fracas against Aregbesola, and all reconciliation efforts have since proved abortive.
Unlike the neighboring Oyo State, the current governor in Osun, Ademola Adeleke is an ally of Atiku Abubakar and will his political heritage to ensure that PDP is not disgraced.
Obi and Kwankwaso may not have a considerable number of votes in this state.
Ondo State
There is no indication that PDP’s Atiku Abubakar will record good figures in this state. His party, the PDP has lost power in the state since 2009. From this time to date, the party has not been able to maintain a strong political structure. The PDP situation is worse than the immediate past governor of the state, Olusegun Mimiko who managed to return to the PDP after governing the state on the platform of the Labour Party is not sympathetic to the course of Atiku. Mimiko pitched his tent with the G5 governors making the Atiku campaign more or less faceless in the state.
Tinubu on the other hand will enjoy the support of the current governor, Rotimi Akeredolu, and the solid structure of the APC in the state. Obi and Kwankwaso will not have a headway in the Sunshine State.
Ekiti State
The situation in Ekiti State is slightly similar to that of its Ondo neighbor. Tinubu will most likely clear the votes in the state. The Ekiti State PDP has been enmeshed in a protracted crisis over supremacy and leadership. The party’s candidate in the June 2022 governorship election Bisi Kolawole, came a distant third at the poll which was won by the All Progressives Congress’ Biodun Oyebanji. The party may record a worse outing on Saturday as the strongest PDP figure and former governor of the state, Ayo Fayose is not likely to deploy his political machinery to work for Atiku. Fayose is an ally of Governor Wike and has not hidden his disgust for the PDP’s choice of candidate.
PDP members in the state loyal to Fayose had rejected their appointment and list of members of the party’s Presidential Campaign Committee and management committee.
The party’s governorship candidate, Bisi Kolawole, who was named as the state PCC chairman in a letter to the PDP PCO DG, titled, ‘Re-appointment as chairman of PCC Ekiti State,’ said although he had not been contacted about the appointment, he wished to raise concern on the membership as some persons who had left the PDP for SDP in the state were included in the list.
While the APC is heading to the polls with a united front, PDP has lost Fayose whose son, Oluwajkmiloju, and other allies were recently expelled from the party.
North Central
Benue
The food basket of the nation will be an interesting prospect. Benue State governor, Samuel Ortom has already thrown his weight behind the Labour Party candidate. Although Benue is a strong PDP state especially Zone C. It is looking likely that Peter Obi will get 50 percent votes in the state.
Many people in the state still have their misgivings against voting for another Fulani man. There is this widespread anger in the state as it is the epicenter of farmers’ and herders’ clashes in the country. The anger will give Peter Obi a slight edge in the state.
Also the cult-like following of the APC guber candidate, Father Alia will swing some votes for the Tinubu in Benue.
Kwara
The APC presidential candidate, Tinubu has a major edge in Kwara state due to two major factors – tribe and religion.
The state is also governed by the APC. It is expected that Tinubu will win Kwara by at least 60 percent vote because of the two factors mentioned above. The PDP will put up a good showing because of the influence of the former senate president, Bukola Saraki. Labour party will have a poor showing in the state.
Niger
The power state has in most cases gone to the ANPP/APC in the presidential elections and that may not change in Saturday’s election.
Tiubu has a major edge in the state because of previous voting patterns and party loyalty in the state. Also the APC guber candidate, Bago has grassroots support, so it is expected his popularity will rub off on the presidential candidate. The PDP is also expected to put up a good fight in the election. Niger is one of the epicenters of banditry in the country. It remains to be seen if the people will revolt against the APC in the state.
Plateau
Plateau has always gone the way of the PDP in the presidential election but this may change in this election and the reasons are not far-fetched.
In the last 8 years in Plateau, there has been an astronomical rise in killings by herdsmen in the state. So there is this general animosity against the Fulani in Plateau, the ethnic stock of the PDP presidential candidate. This will be a serious protest vote against the PDP in the state. The Labour Party will be the biggest beneficiary of the protest vote. Expect Peter Obi to win Plateau.
Nasarawa
Save for the 2019 presidential election where the APC won, the PDP has always won the presidential election in Nasarawa state.
However, the APC national chairman, the present governor, and Senator Almakura are all from the state. These are heavyweight politicians in the state. Also, the ethnic cards may play out in Nasarawa.
The state has a sizeable number of Kanuri which is the ethnic stock of the vice presidential candidate of the APC, Kassim Shettima. This is a factor. Expect the APC to have a slight edge in Nassarawa.
Kogi
The APC has won the last two presidential elections in the state. The governor of the state, Yahaya Bello has a strong grip on the state.
It is expected that the APC will have a landslide victory in the presidential election in the state because of the strong influence of the governor and some key politicians in the state who are in the APC.
South East.
Among the three leading candidates, the South East zone is clearly the preserve of the Labour Party candidate, Peter Obi, a former governor of Anambra State and PDP vice presidential candidate in 2019.
Since his joining and emerging as the Labour Party presidential candidate last June, Obi has rode a popularity wave generated by issues bothering on the need for a third force; clamour for a president of South East extraction; and state of the country’s economy.
However, the battle in the region will largely be contested between Obi and Atiku. The South East was hitherto a PDP strong base until Obi emerged as a candidate. Most pre-election polls, including those projecting his rivals to win, show that Obi will largely win this zone.
However, besides Obi, Atiku will also face the challenge of not enjoying the full support of the two PDP governors in the zone (Abia’s Okezie Ikpeazu and Enugu’s Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi) who have since distanced themselves from his campaign over the refusal of the party’s national chairman, Sen Iyochia Ayu, a northern from Benue, to resign and pave way for a southern chairman to balance the party’s power-balance arrangement.
For Tinubu however, despite the in-roads made by APC in the region, (getting an additional state, Ebonyi, after Imo), the party’s presidential candidate will deal with the perception crisis the party faces in the region under the Buhari-led administration.
Abia
In Abia, Obi is poised to sweep the majority of the votes with good spread across the local governments. Atiku is expected to come second with spread in all the senatorial districts. Tinubu on the other hand is not likely to trail the two other candidates even though he is poised to perform well in Abia North which is seen as the APC base in the state. This senatorial district has more APC members in federal and state legislative houses.
Anambra
This is Obi’s home state and he is expected to win massively here. Atiku is expected to come second considering his affinity to most political elites in the state. Whether or not his closeness to the incumbent governor, Prof Chukwuma Soludo, who is an All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) would count, the state has a good number of PDP members occupying state and federal legislative seats as well as candidates participating in the forthcoming poll.
Tinubu is expected to come third in the state as the fortunes of APC in the state has dwindled.
Imo
This is one the APC controlled states. But Obi is projected to win the state. Atiku and Tinubu will battle for second place. While Atiku will seek to leverage on the influence of former speaker Emeka Ihedioha and a relatively strong PDP base, Tinubu will rely on the push of the state governor Sen. Hope Uzodimma, to get measurable votes in the state.
Ebonyi
This is the second APC controlled state. With Governor Dave Umahi on the saddle, Tinubu is expected to get some votes but he will have to contend with PDP’s presence in the state regardless. Nonetheless, Obi is projected to win most of the votes in the state.
Enugu
While Obi is poised to win this state, Atiku is projected to come second. Besides the strong PDP base in the state, the former Vice President has many staunch political allies in this state. On the other hand, Tinubu’s performance hinges on how well the divisions among the APC leaders in the state have been amended.
Borno
Ravaged by over a decade of insurgency, the conflict has been primarily contained in the Muslim north but has displaced millions of people. Nonetheless, Borno is the state of the vice-presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) which of course will influence the party’s victory.
During the party rally on Saturday, thousands of supporters of the ruling APC stormed Maiduguri, the Borno state capital to attend and support its presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and his running mate, Sen Shettima, a former governor of the state (2011 to 2019).
Basically, the chances of APC Presidential Candidate, Bola Tinubu in the North East region in the 2023 general elections are very high. While it will be very difficult for Atiku to win Borno State, the chances of the Labour Party (LP) and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) are also very low.
Adamawa
The presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Atiku Abubakar hails from Adamawa State. He won the presidential election held in his home Adamawa State in 2019, and the chances that he can win the election in 2023 in Adamawa State are very high.
Just yesterday the presidential candidate of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar, ended his presidential campaign rally in his home state, Adamawa, where he reiterated his vow to deliver his campaign promises to better Nigeria if voted as president.
It will be very difficult for other presidential candidates to make a comeback in Adamawa State.
Bauchi
The flag off of the campaign of APC governorship candidate for Bauchi state, Air Marshal SadiqueAbubakar (rtd), in Bauchi town, amid pomp and pageantry, which shows that the APC has a chance of winning the 2023 general elections. Three months ago, the PDP presidential candidate in the 2023 elections, Abubakar, and Bauchi State governor Bala Mohammed buried the hatchet, settled their differences, and resolved to work together for the electoral victory of the party in the general elections.
It will be recalled that the APC beat the PDP in Bauchi State in the last presidential election
However, the 2023 election in Bauchi State is a tight race between the APC and PDP major contenders. However, LP and NNPP may also pull surprises in the state.
Taraba
Ahead of the 2023 general elections, internal wrangling poses a major huddle to the victory of the APC in the state as there are infighting between the ranks of the APC in the state. This according to pundits was a major reason why Tinubu and the party leadership suspend all political activities in the Taraba State, although grassroots mobilisation and campaigns are ongoing.
However, LEADERSHIP gathered that though PDP’s prospects of emerging victorious in the state is evident, it is not going to be achieved on a platter of gold as the leadership of both the APC and the LP are leaving no stone unturned to win the hearts of the electorates, especially at the grassroots levels.
The PDP has been presiding over the affairs of the state since 1999, however, the presidential election battle in the state is likely to be on a tripod among APC, PDP, and LP.
However, the presidential candidate of the PDP has an edge over the APC and may have a smooth ride to victory.
Yobe
The candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress has a major edge in Yobe State, while it will be difficult for the LP to make a cut.
With the influence of Tinubu’s running mate Kashim Shettima, the party will win Yobe state. In fact, the state governor Mai Mala Buni of Yobe said APC will win the 2023 election by huge margin with the number of its registered members.
On the other hand, the Labour Party vice president candidate Datti Baba Ahmed hails from the North, he cannot influence northern voters in the North East most especially in Yobe State.
Notwithstanding, Atiku may pull a surprise in the state but it will be very difficult for Atiku to win Borno State.
What might work against Atiku in the North East especially Yobe State is the fact that the former vice-president neglected the region when he was in office as he did not influence infrastructural projects in the region.
Gombe
The mass defection of stalwarts of the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and their supporters to the All Progressives Congress Party (APC) will definitely unsettle the party.
However, the absence of the former governor of Gombe State, Danjuma Goje at the Presidential Campaign rally of the APC in Gombe State is creating uneasy calm in the ruling party.
The party also received former PDP governorship aspirant, Dr. Jamilu Ishiyaku Gwamna, led by former PDP members, including the immediate past deputy governor of the state, Dr. Charles Iliya into the APC family.
Political commentators, however, agreed that the APC may win the state.
Rivers State
The presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Ahmed Bola Tinubu, has a very large followership in Rivers State, cutting across different political parties. Tinubu’s sudden popularity in the state stems from his political romance with Governor Nyesom Ezenwo Wike who is of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Analysts believe that the the upstage by the H5 governors will certainly give him an edge over other presidential candidates in the state.
However, the former Lagos State governor’s choice of running a Muslim-Muslim ticket may affect his chances of getting landslide victory in Rivers State.
The presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, is very popular among the electorates in Rivers State, even though there is no love lost between him and Governor Nyesom Wike.
The investments of the former vice president in the state, which has created jobs for several indigenes and residents of the state, will certainly sway votes in his favour in the state.
However, a lot of Nigerians, especially those in the Southern part of the country, believe in power shift to the South and based on that, they may decide not to vote for another Northerner.
The presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi, is very popular among young the electorate in the state, especially those who will be voting for the first time in their lives. The support base of the former Anambra State governor cuts across different political parties.
However, the lack of support from prominent political leaders in the state, who have a lot of influence on the youths, may affect his chances of clinching the required 25 percent of votes in the state.
Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso
The presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, enjoys a lot of support among the Northern community resident in the state.
The former Kano State governor’s closeness to Governor Nyesom Wike, may also help in swaying votes in his favour during the February 25, 2023 presidential election.
However, Kwankwaso’s political party, NNPP, is a relatively new and is yet to spread in all the nooks and crannies of the state.
Edo State:
The Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, stands a better chance of winning the presidential election in Edo State despite that Edo state is a PDP-controlled state.
There are three factions against the ruling PDP in Edo State. The APC, legacy PDP and the Labour Party are all in political arms against the Obaseki-led PDP, thereby making the LP the new political bride in the state.
The PDP presidential candidate may win the required 25 percent in Edo state. Edo is traditionally a PDP state, if not for the crisis between the legacy members and the Obaseki loyalists.
Expectedly, Obaseki will do everything possible to ensure that he delivers Edo state to Atiku even if it is just to prove to the APC and those loyal legacy PDP members loyal to Governor Nyesom Wike of River State that he is in firm grip of the state.
It will be a herculean task for the APC presidential candidate to garner the required 25 percent. Edo is a PDP-controlled state and the LP national chairman is from Edo State.
Observers are of the view that the APC-led government has brought hardship and poverty. Some analysts believe that it will be easier for the camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for the APC candidate to poll 25 percent in Edo State.
The NNPP may likely pull some votes from the Hausa communities in Edo State because of the Kwankwasiyya factor. He, however, stands no chance to win in the state.
Cross Rivers
In Cross River State, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar’s chance of pulling reasonable votes from the state to enable him beat his political opponents in the forthcoming presidential poll is slim. This is due to the crises rocking the party since it denied Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State the presidential ticket.
Outcome of the primaries caused strife in the party, splitting the PDP into two factions in the state. A faction of the party led by the Cross River State governorship candidate, Senator Onor and former Governor Donald Duke is linked to Wike, while the second faction which is controlled by former Governor Liyel Imoke, Senator representing Cross River South senatorial district at the National Assembly, Senator Gershom Bassey, and others are completely behind Atiku.
With the intrigues playing out, one does not need a soothsayer to know that the split among these PDP heavy weights is likely to mar Atiku’s chances of pulling a reasonable number of votes in the forthcoming presidential polls as far as Cross River State is concerned. PDP cannot claim victory in the state unless something is urgently done to address this rift.
The presidential candidate of All Progressives Congress (APC) stands a better chance of getting a reasonable number of votes in Cross River State. This is not to say that he will win 100 percent.The recent hardship orchestrated by the recent Naira policy has created bad blood for the APC and the party might lose some percentage of votes.
The APC is a government in power in the state following the governors defection from PDP. The resources which the state governor has mobilised during vigorous and aggressive campaigns, transversing across the three Senatorial district of the state is a big plus for the party and Tinubu stands a good chance to benefit from this.
The cash crunch suffered by the people in recent times, coupled with the hunger in the state, would negatively impact Tinubu’s chances in the polls.
The Labour party which came like a bolt from the blue, with its presidential candidate, Peter Obi, who has been making waves in Cross River, is a party to beat. Obi will garner more votes in Cross River given the number of Igbos resident in the state .
Even though many had despised the Labour Party in the state due to absence of structure unlike other main political parties, the party has steadily gained momentum.
The party has its support base mostly in the University community, basically from the University of Calabar and the Cross River University of Technology CRUTE’CH. Apart from drawing his strength among the academia, 60 percent of Obi’s strength is also drawn from labour leaders who claim Labour Party is thier platform. This is among the reasons why the party stands the chance of winning high number of votes from the state.
New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, has a slim chance in Cross River. The NNPP appears to be weak in the state. It’s the least in terms of campaigns in the state. It is obvious that the NNPP would score the least votes among the major parties in Cross River State due to its failure to carry out aggressive campaign like it’s counterparts in the state.
Besides, a lot of people in the state are not conversant even with the party’s logo due to the absence of campaign where the electorate would have been educated. The lack of formidable structure would also mar the chances of the party to match its counterpart in the state.
Bayelsa
Bayelsa has always been a PDP state since 1999 and it is widely expected that the PDP will still have a slight edge in the presidential election followed closely by the labour Party.
Delta
Delta is the home state of the vice presidential candidate of the PDP, Ifeanyi Okowa. Delta has always been a strong PDP state and not much is expected to change in the election.
However, the Labour Party is expected to put up a good showing in the state.
