Africa Leads Air Cargo Rebound As Global Demand Dips 4.8%—IATA

African airlines lef a rare air cargo rebound in March 2026, posting a 7.0 per cent year-on-year demand increase—the strongest globally—even as total worldwide cargo demand fell 4.8 per cent, fresh data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has revealed.

The IATA Air Cargo Market Analysis Monthly Report for March highlighted Africa as the sole bright spot amid widespread disruptions, including geopolitical tensions and operational bottlenecks.

While global international cargo demand slid 5.5 per cent and overall capacity contracted 4.7 per cent, African carriers managed a 4.6 per cent capacity drop yet maximised efficiency.
This reflected the continent’s evolving logistics prowess, driven by booming Africa-Asia trade lanes that grew fastest among major routes.

“African airlines saw a 7.0 per cent year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in March, the strongest rise of all regions,” the report stated, with capacity down 4.6 per cent. Africa’s share of global air cargo volume stayed at a modest 2.1 per cent—the smallest regionally—compared to Asia-Pacific’s dominant 36.0 per cent, North America’s 24.5 per cent, Europe’s 21.3 per cent, Middle East’s 13.2 per cent, and Latin America/Caribbean’s 2.9 per cent.
Still, the growth positions Africa as a counterweight to volatility elsewhere.

IATA director general, Willie Walsh pinned the global dip primarily on war-related chaos at key Gulf cargo hubs, layered atop the typical post-Lunar New Year lull.

“Underlying market conditions remained relatively strong,” he added. Supporting this, February 2026 data showed global industrial production up 3.1 per cent year-on-year, goods trade expanding 8.0 per cent, and manufacturing PMI steady at 51.4—signaling expansion.

Countering these positives, jet fuel prices rocketed 106.6 per cent year-on-year, squeezing airline margins.

Africa’s performance starkly outpaced rivals. Asia-Pacific airlines logged 5.4 per cent demand growth with 5.0 per cent capacity gains; Europe managed 2.2 per cent demand uptick amid 4.2 per cent capacity expansion; Latin America/Caribbean saw 1.8 per cent growth with 5.1 per cent capacity rise; North America declined 1.2 per cent; and Middle East carriers plunged 54.3 per cent, battered by instability.
For Nigeria, a key African player, this rebound ties into energy exports and intra-continental trade. Carriers like Air Peace and cargo arms of national airlines have ramped up routes to Asia, ferrying oil-related goods and perishables amid rising e-commerce demand. Analysts note Africa’s air cargo volumes have grown 15 per cent annually since 2024, per IATA trends, fueled by AfCFTA implementation and port congestions shifting freight skyward.
Sustained Momentum in Recent Months
The March surge extends a streak of outperformance. February 2026 demand jumped 21 per cent, propelled by 61.9 per cent Africa-Asia expansion; January hit 18.2 per cent with 41.6 per cent on that lane; December 2025 rose 10.1 per cent alongside 9.8 per cent capacity growth; and November 2025 delivered 15.6 per cent demand with 18.1 per cent capacity. IATA’s methodology—tracking freight tonne-kilometres (FTKs) from over 300 airlines—confirms this as organic growth, not seasonal anomaly.
Looking ahead, experts like aviation consultant John Miragliotta forecast 5-7 per cent African cargo expansion through 2026, barring fuel spikes or conflicts. “Africa’s rebound isn’t luck—it’s infrastructure bets paying off,” he said in a recent webinar. For economies like Nigeria’s, reliant on oil and gas airlifts, this cements the continent’s strategic pivot in disrupted global chains.