Analysts Predict Stronger Business Expansion As Purchasing Managers Index Hits 57.6 Points

Economic activities have continued to improve in the country, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remaining above the 50-point threshold for the 13th consecutive month. Analysts expect businesses to further expand this year, driven by the various reforms implemented in the country.

Composite PMI, which printed 56.4 points in November, expanded to 57.6 points in December, the highest monthly expansion in the year, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), signifying a sustained expansion of business activities in the country.

The expansion was driven by increases across the industry and agriculture sectors amid a moderation in the service sector. The industry sector PMI expanded to 57.0 points compared to 54.2 points in November, reaching its highest level in 24 months.

This expansion was driven by increased consumer demand during the festive season, with all component indicators showing growth. The agriculture sector PMI likewise stood at 58.5 points compared to 58.2 points in November expanding for the 17th consecutive month, reflecting sustained growth momentum, with improvements in general farming activities, inventories, new orders, and employment levels, supported by the ongoing late harvest season.

On the other hand, the Services sector PMI slowed to 56.4 points, compared to 56.8 points in November. Although it moderated the services PMI remained in expansion for the 11th consecutive month, reflecting resilient sector output and new orders.

The survey further revealed that 32 of the 36 monitored subsectors recorded expansions in key indicators, including production levels, new business orders, and employment.

According to the CBN survey, this highlights a steady recovery in domestic demand and a strengthening of productive activities, particularly within the non-oil economy.

Analysts at Cowry Assets Management attributed the improved PMI performance to the positive impact of ongoing macroeconomic stabilisation measures aimed at improving the operating environment and boosting business confidence.

According to the analysts, these reforms continued to support job creation, enhance production efficiency, and reinforce optimism about economic prospects in the fourth quarter of 2025. Overall, the December PMI reading reinforces expectations of a stable growth outlook as Nigeria enters the New Year.

The Cowry Assets analysts stated that “the December 2025 PMI reading signals continued expansion in Nigeria’s domestic economy as the country enters 2026. Broad-based growth across agriculture, industry, and services, coupled with improvements in production, new business orders, and employment, underscores resilient domestic demand and strengthening productive capacity.

“Ongoing macroeconomic stabilisation measures and supportive reforms are expected to sustain business confidence, drive job creation, and reinforce economic momentum, pointing to a stable growth trajectory in the near term.”

For analysts at Cordros Research, in the near term, continued expansion in private sector activity is anticipated, “underpinned by improving macroeconomic conditions. Key supportive factors include stable naira, moderating inflation, and sustained consumer demand. Furthermore, the shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy stance is expected to ease the previously tight financial conditions, providing additional support for near-term economic growth.”