The United States’ European allies are bracing for an America that may be less interested in their affairs irrespective of who wins the presidential election – and for old traumas and new problems if Donald Trump returns to the White House.
The election comes nearly three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in which Washington has made the single biggest contribution to Kyiv’s defence. There are question marks over whether that would continue under Trump, and how committed he would be to NATO allies in general.
A win by Vice President Kamala Harris could be expected to bring a continuation of current policy, though with Republican opposition and growing war fatigue among the US public there are concerns in Europe that support would wane.
Trump’s appetite for imposing tariffs on US partners also is causing worry in a Europe already struggling with sluggish economic growth. But it’s not just the possibility of a second Trump presidency that has the continent anxious about tougher times ahead.
The AP noted that the European officials believe US priorities lie elsewhere, no matter who wins. The Middle East is top of President Joe Biden’s list right now, but the long-term priority is China.
“The centrality of Europe to US foreign policy is different than it was in Biden’s formative years,” said Rachel Tausendfreund, a senior research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. “And in that way, it is true that Biden is the last trans-Atlantic president.”
The US will continue to pivot toward Asia, she said. “That means Europe has to step up. Europe has to become a more capable partner and also become more capable of managing its own security area.”
Germany’s defence minister, Boris Pistorius, remarked when he signed a new defence pact with NATO ally Britain that the US will focus more on the Indo-Pacific region, “so it is only a question of, will they do much less in Europe because of that or only a little bit less.”
Ian Lesser, a distinguished fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels, said that “above all, Europe is looking for predictability from Washington,” and that’s in short supply in a turbulent world in which any administration will face other demands on its attention. “But the potential for disruption is clearly greater in the case of a potential Trump administration.”
“There is an assumption of essential continuity” under Harris that’s probably well-founded, he said, with many people who have shaped policy under Biden likely to remain. “It’s very much the known world, even if the strategic environment produces uncertainties of its own.”
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