Arthur Steven Projects 45.9% Gain For Nigerian Equities In 2026

By OLUSHOLA BELLO and BUKOLA ARO-LAMBO, Lagos

The managing director of Arthur Steven Asset Management Limited and former president of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS), Mr. Olatunde Amolegbe has forecasted a 45.9 per cent return for Nigerian equities in the 2026 financial year.

He attributes this forecast to promising trends in macroeconomic stability, pre-election liquidity, expected monetary easing, and significant anticipated listings as key catalysts for growth.

Amolegbe made the projection in a presentation titled ‘2025 Macroeconomic Review and Outlook for 2026: Stabilisation, Structural Reform, and Market Repricing’ at the Capital Market Correspondence Association of Nigeria (CAMCAN) 2025 Capital Market Review and Prognosis for 2026, held at the weekend in Lagos.

He emphasized that stability in both prices and foreign exchange, along with modest interest rate cuts and active capital raising by institutional investors, are poised to bolster robust market performance in 2026.

Amolegbe highlighted that the planned listings, particularly from the Dangote Group, have the potential to significantly enhance market depth and sector representation on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).

“We anticipate the NGX to achieve a substantial return of 45.9 per cent in 2026 based on our base-case scenario.

“The combination of stable macro conditions, abundant liquidity ahead of elections, and renewed investor confidence strengthens our optimistic stance,” he stated.

He noted that accelerated disinflation, a potential monetary easing of between 400 and 900 basis points, stronger corporate earnings, increased foreign portfolio investment, and additional large-scale listings could lead to even higher returns for equities.

Amolegbe however acknowledged that some risks still exist, particularly around the sensitivity of capital gains tax and potential delays in major listings, which might impact overall market performance.

He underscored several factors expected to influence equities in 2026, such as heightened liquidity in anticipation of the 2027 general elections, driven by pre-election spending and fiscal expansion, saying that while this could enhance market activity, it may also introduce some volatility in equities and the foreign exchange market, guiding investors toward more tactical and short-term strategies.

On corporate developments, he pointed out that expected listings, including the Dangote Refinery and Dangote Fertiliser IPOs, as well as the separate listing of Airtel Money in the first half of 2026, are likely to improve market liquidity and encourage broader participation from investors.

Amolegbe also noted that stability in the foreign exchange market is essential for sustaining interest from foreign investors.

He highlighted that the combination of stabilizing macroeconomic indicators, structural reforms, and renewed investor confidence positions the Nigerian financial market for strong performance in 2026.