As Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine Enters Year 2

The war in the former Soviet bloc, instigated by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, is going into its second year, unexpectedly, at least by Russian estimation. That was not what the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, wanted when he made that obviously fatal move this time last year. For him, it was going to be a blitzkrieg that would over-run Ukraine in a matter of days. That is beginning to turn into an over ambitious miscalculation of the impact of military might alone in modern warfare.  

Putin, in going to war against Ukraine, under-estimated the will of a people to defend their sovereignty, freedom and liberty when such come under attack in circumstances that cannot be said to be provoked. Again, Putin did not take into account the determination of the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, a comedian- turned- politician to prove to the world that his emergence as that country’s leader was not a fluke. Like magic, he not only galvanized the patriotic spirit of his people but also was able to mobilize the international community, in particular, the European Union (EU) most of whom are also members of the all-powerful North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) led by the United States of America (USA) against Russia.

Putin’s argument that the expansion of NATO eastwards was inimical to Russia’s security interest has become tenable in reverse as it has achieved the direct opposite with the application of Finland and Sweden, its next-door neighbours, to join the alliance. If anything, the war has whittled Russia’s influence in global affairs. And that is where the worry becomes pronounced.

At the onset of that needless crisis, we made it clear on this page that it will blunt Putin’s argument about the west trying to use Ukraine to finish off what was left of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). We also argued that Putin had a point when he stated that Ukraine, as a member of that alliance with the possibility of the deployment of strategic weapons in that country so close to the Russian borders, was not healthy for its national security.

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However, we also made it clear that invading that country ought not to be part of the argument. Our position then and now was, and still is, that the so-called world powers are adept in instigating regime change in any country of their choice without going to war to achieve it. Putin did not explore that option as reprehensible as it would have been. And cannot now. But it would have been a more tolerable spectacle than what is going on in that part of the world presently.

The danger, in our view, of the war escalating, is driven by the involvement of Iran, China and even North Korea on the part of Russia. Nothing is going to stop Israel from throwing its hat in the ring on the side of Ukraine, at least to counter Iranian influence. That country had, until now, restricted itself because it believed that big brother, the USA, is doing the job and doing it well.

The worst we fear as the war rages, is that Russia is beginning to feel caged. France made reference to this when President Emmanuel Macron urged for restraint. In his opinion, a defeated Russia will not conduce to world peace. He is right. Putin has discontinued discussions with USA on strategic arms control. He is testing new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and ramping up the production of strategic and conventional weapons.

On their part, NATO and their allies in the EU are doing the same. A new world order is in the offing that will witness a lot of undesirable belligerence not as cold war but open conflict. It is arms race the world thought had ended, starting all over again. The US President, Joe Biden, has just ended a visit to Ukraine and Poland with a summit of the nine East European members of NATO.

  It may be convenient to blame Putin for bringing war back to Europe thus defeating the intentions of both the United Nations and the EU. Both bodies had believed that diplomacy would always prevail on matters involving the world powers. However, some American political figures like former Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger and former presidential hopeful, Bernie Sanders, had criticized the NATO aspirations of Ukraine which was the initial position of Putin.

In our opinion, the Russian leader lost it when he started talking of rebuilding the Soviet empire thereby exposing the real reason why he invaded Ukraine. He ought to be better advised to exorcise himself of such weird thoughts and save humanity the cataclysmic implication of a prolonged war with Ukraine that is soon to lead, God forbid, to a third world war. With conventional weapons running low on all sides involved in the conflict, someone, under pressure, may push the wrong nuclear button. No one wants that. No one should, therefore, insist on ending the war in Ukraine in the battle field. Macron and France should lead that discussion.