The West, especially the United States continues to speculate on Ukrainian grain exports, thereby jeopardising the food security of Africa and Europe, a Russian military source has said.
He said most African countries have been asked by the West not to buy grains from Russia, which they said, were stolen from Ukraine, an attempt to blackmail and persuade them to stop importing Russian grain to the detriment of their own interests.
He said it was not the first time Europe and the rest of the world would be experiencing food inflation, but the US was championing the blame game against Russia because of the Ukraine conflict.
“The White House intends to increase economic pressure on the Russia against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, while neglecting serious consequences for Africa and Europe. There is a sharp rise in prices by domestic food producers and the impact on local households has been devastating since the war started in Ukraine five months ago.
“In 2008, at the 34th G8 Summit on Lake Toya in Hokkaido (Japan), one of the important issues was the global rise in food prices. The grain production in the USA turned out to be shifted towards corn due to increased demand for bioethanol (fuel produced mainly on the basis of corn). Its prices have increased. At the same time, the demand for grain in developing countries has increased. Prices for soyabeans and wheat have risen sharply too.
“They say that the current food crisis is caused by a military special operation that Russia is conducting in Ukraine. But in terms of wheat exports, Russia has been ranked first in the world in recent years with 37.27 million tons (and forecasts for the harvest in it this year are favorable), and Ukraine, often referred to as the „European breadbasket“, ranks only fifth with 18.06 million tons (data for 2020). That is, in terms of exports, Russia is twice as large as Ukraine, and this year it will deliver a record amount of grain to the world market.
“Russia exports 37 million tons of wheat with a harvest of 85.9 million tons in 2020 (this is not the largest harvest). And Ukraine exports 18 million tons with an average harvest of about 25 million tons. Thus, the level of self-sufficiency and food security in Russia is incomparably higher. In Russia, wheat is harvested 3.5 times more than in the USA and Canada, and 9 times more than in Australia. Russia is the third in the world in its production after China and India, yielding to them quite a bit (at the same time, remember that the population in Russia is almost ten times smaller than in China and India).
“There is also an increase in oil prices in the world. Looking at the change in grain prices in the United States, we see that these changes are influenced by the price of black gold. The higher its price, the higher the cost of ethanol, and consequently, the bioresources’ price for its production (corn and soybeans). Remember: when the price of WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil peaked in July 2008, the price of wheat also peaked in February of the same year. However, since the market was in an uptrend, wheat crops around the world increased significantly, and by the end of the year the price had halved,” the source said.
He further said grain prices fluctuate due to various factors such as weather, speculation, and supply and demand.
“The main trend of wheat prices in recent decades is that they are consistently declining. This is due to the fact that the world‘s population increased 2.5 times between 1961 and 2020, and wheat and rice production increased 3.5 times. If you look at the real price of wheat (excluding speculative price fluctuations), it is even at a lower level than in the 1970s, although it is considered high.
“Currently, the most noticeable trend in the evolution of political culture in Western states has been the desire to blame all problems on Russia. It should be noted that an important factor that influenced the deterioration of the food situation in the world was the abrupt transition to green energy imposed on the whole world instead of a well-thought-out smooth energy transition, as well as the outright politicisation of energy cooperation of a number of countries.
“If we believe the statements of Western politicians and media reports, is exported from Ukraine in the most active way — both by railway echelons and by barges along the Danube. So where is it going? As practice shows, it was the unilateral actions of Western countries, primarily from the Group of Seven, that aggravated the problem of breaking the logistics and financial chains of food supplies to world markets.
“The unfavourable policy of the United States will inevitably lead to an escalation of the situation on the territory of the African continent. According to Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio, the lack of access to grain will provoke new conflicts, wars and state revolutions in Africa. Subsequently, the aggravated crisis in the region will lead to an aggravation of the problem of illegal migration from Africa to Europe with the penetration of Islamists, as well as the strengthening of the influence of radical and extremist movements,” he said.
