Business Activity Index Rises On Easing Inflation — Report

Nigeria’s private sector recorded another month of growth in November, supported by easing inflationary pressures, rising customer demand, and new product launches, according to the latest Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report.

The headline PMI stood at 53.6 in November, above the 50.0 no-change threshold, signalling an improvement in business conditions for the 13th consecutive month.

Although slightly below October’s reading of 54.0, the figure reflects continued expansion across the four monitored sectors: Agriculture, Manufacturing, wholesale and retail, and Services.

“Firms attributed the growth in output to increased sales, customer acquisition, and the introduction of new products, which collectively pushed new orders to their fastest growth rate in three months. New business rose sharply, expanding for the 13th month running,” the report said.

Despite only marginal job creation, the Stanbic IBTC report noted that companies significantly increased their purchasing activity.

It said, “Input buying rose at the quickest pace in seven months, enabling firms to raise inventory levels to their highest since June 2023 as they prepared for stronger future demand.”

One of the most notable trends in the November survey was the continued easing of inflationary pressures. Input cost inflation slowed to its weakest point in nearly five years, supported by softer increases in both purchase prices and staff costs.

Output price inflation similarly moderated, rising at the slowest pace since April 2020. Stanbic IBTC notes that while some firms still reported higher raw material and transport costs, overall pricing pressures have subsided significantly compared to recent years.

“This softening has helped businesses keep prices more stable, supporting higher customer demand and improved competitiveness,” it added.

Operational conditions improve despite payment delays

The report also noted that suppliers’ delivery times had shortened for the fifth consecutive month, reflecting improved vendor performance.

However, despite increased capacity, firms experienced a rise in backlogs for the first time in four months, mainly due to delayed customer payments.

Employment growth slowed, with most firms taking a cautious approach amid a declining trend in business confidence. “Optimism fell to its lowest since May, although some respondents expect output to rise in the coming year, driven by business expansion, investments, and new product pipelines,” Stanbic IBTC stated.

Commenting on the findings, Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research, West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, said Nigeria’s private sector continues to benefit from easing inflation and more stable operating conditions.

“New orders rose to 56.9 points, a three-month high, and have now increased every month for over a year,” Oni noted. “Manufacturing and services led output growth in November, supported by rising demand and improved price stability.”

Oni added that with inflation softening and the exchange rate gradually stabilising, sectors such as manufacturing, services, and retail are poised for stronger performance in 2025.

Stanbic IBTC projects Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.0% in 2025, with broader sectoral contributions expected in 2026. Key drivers include government activity in infrastructure, livestock development, trade facilitation, and renewed investments in oil & gas and manufacturing.

The Dangote Refinery is also expected to strengthen forward linkages across industries, boosting local production and reducing import dependence.

“Likely lower interest rates and more stable macroeconomic conditions should support private consumption and business investment,” Oni said. “Taken together, these factors could significantly improve living standards in 2026 compared to 2025.”